Anticipation is high for what promises to be an exciting WTA Charleston final. Jessica Pegula aims for a consecutive title win at this event, while Yuliia Starodubtseva is set to compete in her inaugural WTA final. Below, we offer our analysis and prediction for who will emerge victorious.
WTA Charleston Final Analysis
Jessica Pegula vs Yuliia Starodubtseva
Head-to-head: This is their first encounter.
Pegula’s journey to the final has been remarkably dramatic this season. The 2024 US Open finalist secured her victories against Yuliia Putintseva, Elisabetta Cocciaretto, Diana Shnaider, and Iva Jovic, all requiring a decisive third set. In stark contrast, Starodubtseva navigated her path to the final with impressive ease, dropping just one set across her triumphs over Shuai Zhang, Ekaterine Gorgodze, Renata Zarazua, McCartney Kessler, and Madison Keys.
Starodubtseva’s semifinal performance against Keys was particularly noteworthy. The Ukrainian consistently kept the 2025 Australian Open winner on the defensive and showed no signs of intimidation by Keys’ powerful game. Pegula will present a different kind of challenge. While she is a clean hitter, the defending champion doesn’t strike the ball with the same force as Keys. Instead, Pegula excels with her superior athleticism and formidable return game. This means Starodubtseva will undoubtedly need to work harder for every point she wins.
Despite Starodubtseva’s outstanding form in the preceding rounds, Pegula is still favored to prevail. The immense pressure associated with a debut WTA final often leads to a noticeable dip in performance. This risk is further heightened for the world No. 89 given the prestige of the Charleston Open and the caliber of her opponent. Pegula’s proven ability to elevate her game in crucial moments was evident when she defeated Sofia Kenin in last year’s final, having also won her previous two matches in a deciding set leading up to that victory.
The outcome of the first set will likely be crucial for Starodubtseva’s chances. Pegula has demonstrated resilience after a slow start, whereas the Ukrainian might struggle to maintain composure if she finds herself in a similar position during her first major final.
Prediction: Pegula in 2 sets