Does Cade Cunningham`s current performance warrant MVP consideration?
Interestingly, two years prior, a similar inquiry was made about another emerging guard, and the parallels are quite striking.
In 2023, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had just finished a season where he propelled a team widely expected to be in the lottery into the playoffs. He achieved impressive statistics during what was his first largely healthy and prime season. Early in the 2023-24 campaign, his MVP odds were ranked eighth shortest by ESPN BET.
Fast forward to the present, and Cunningham has similarly guided his previously lottery-bound Detroit Pistons to a playoff berth. This marks the first time in his career that Cunningham, the top pick in the 2021 NBA draft, has managed to play more than 64 games in a single season. Now, just a week into the new season, ESPN BET places his MVP odds as the seventh shortest at 60-1.
Is Cade Cunningham a Genuine MVP Contender for This Season?
In the aforementioned instance, SGA ultimately secured second place in the 2023-24 MVP ballot, with many believing he deserved to win. This strong showing paved the way for his eventual MVP win in the 2024-25 season. Could Cunningham be on an identical trajectory?
To begin, let`s examine Cunningham`s competition and the individual statistics he would need to achieve to enter the MVP discussion.
According to ESPN BET, the current frontrunners for this season`s MVP award are Gilgeous-Alexander (+225), Victor Wembanyama (+275), and Nikola Jokic (+375).
Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, was the league`s leading scorer last season, posting averages of 32.7 PPG, 6.4 APG, and 5.0 RPG.
Wembanyama, arguably the most highly anticipated NBA prospect in history upon entering the league two years ago, is already living up to expectations a week into the season, with averages of 33.3 PPG, 13.3 RPG, and an incredible 6.0 BPG. Should he sustain this exceptional output, it might prove challenging for anyone else to claim the MVP title this season.
Jokic, who has consistently ranked in the top-two of MVP voting for five consecutive seasons (winning three), recently made history as the first center in NBA history to average a triple-double for an entire season. Furthermore, he became the first player ever to finish in the top-four for points, assists, rebounds, and steals per game in the same season, with averages of 29.6 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 10.2 APG, and 2.0 SPG.
Cunningham`s statistics from last season—26.1 PPG, 9.1 APG, and 6.1 RPG—while commendable, don`t quite match the elite level of the frontrunners. Nevertheless, Cunningham`s ambition is bolstered by his consistent year-over-year improvement in scoring and assists, with the magnitude of these improvements increasing each season.
| Statistical Improvement | PPG | APG |
|---|---|---|
| Going from Season 1-2 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| Going from Season 2-3 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| Going from Season 3-4 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
If Cunningham can sustain a similar upward trend this season, specifically by adding 3.9 points and just 0.9 assists per game, he would join an exclusive group as only the fourth player in NBA history to average 30 points and 10 assists. This rare feat has only been achieved by former MVPs Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook. Should Cunningham elevate his numbers to this impressive benchmark, they would certainly merit consideration alongside the extraordinary statistics of the other leading candidates.
Beyond individual stats, another crucial factor to consider is Cunningham`s influence on team success.
How Does Cunningham`s Presence Affect the Pistons` Success?
Last season, Gilgeous-Alexander recorded the second-highest on-court/off-court plus-minus (on/off +/-) in the NBA. The Thunder performed 17.5 points per 100 possessions better when he was on the court compared to when he was off, contributing to Oklahoma City`s league-best 68-14 record.
Jokic, in the previous season, boasted the league`s top on/off +/- at +19.0 points per 100 possessions, marking his fourth consecutive season with an on/off +/- exceeding +16.0. However, the Nuggets` record saw a slight dip to 50-32, following their 57-25 season where Jokic secured his third MVP award.
Cunningham`s on/off +/- last season stood at a more modest +3.4 points per 100 possessions. However, this occurred on a Pistons team that dramatically improved from a 14-68 record the previous season to a respectable 44-38. For Cunningham to genuinely contend for the MVP award this season, he will likely need to achieve a double-digit on/off +/- and lead the Pistons to a win total of at least 55-60 games.
Achieving that win total presents the most significant challenge. Nevertheless, with injuries sidelining Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton, who were key players on the last two Eastern Conference champion teams, the East appears wide open this season. If the Pistons can ascend from a fifth-seed finish last season to claim the top seed in the conference this year, regardless of their precise final record, Cunningham will undoubtedly generate substantial MVP buzz.
Cunningham Faces a Challenge to Become a Top MVP Candidate This Season
While Cunningham still needs to bridge a gap to reach the elite tier of players like Wembanyama, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jokic, his statistical progression and the Detroit Pistons` upward trajectory suggest that such a leap is conceivable.
The path of the most recent MVP, Gilgeous-Alexander, followed a remarkably similar improvement curve just two seasons ago. Given Cunningham`s long odds at 60-1, placing a bet on him could offer considerable “lottery-ticket” value.
The more probable scenario is that Cunningham will require another couple of seasons to truly establish himself at the highest echelon of MVP contenders. However, the unique circumstances within the Eastern Conference this season provide him with a legitimate opportunity to break into the top-5 or even higher in the MVP voting.
Jasper Carew 
Rupert Hollis