We are in the final stretch of the 2024-25 NBA regular season, and teams across the league are gearing up for a memorable playoff showdown.
The Western Conference, in particular, is seeing an incredibly tight race for playoff spots. Teams seeded from No. 3 to No. 8 are changing positions almost nightly, separated by a mere 1½ games at most.
Keep an eye on the Minnesota Timberwolves, LA Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, and Golden State Warriors, all fiercely competing for the No. 6 seed to avoid the play-in tournament.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers are close to securing their first top-six seed since the 2019-20 season. The Phoenix Suns are in a precarious position, hovering near elimination but aiming to overtake the Sacramento Kings for a chance to at least participate in the play-in.
The drama in the Western Conference, including Kevin Durant`s future and which team Stephen Curry and the Warriors would prefer to avoid in the first round, might extend until the very last day of the regular season this Sunday.
Here’s what our NBA insiders Michael C. Wright, Brian Windhorst, Dave McMenamin, Ohm Youngmisuk, Tim MacMahon, Kevin Pelton, and Zach Kram have to say about this unpredictable West.
What`s next for Ja Morant and the Grizzlies as they pursue home-court advantage under an interim coach?
Memphis cleared a hurdle on Thursday by securing their first win under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo. Morant`s buzzer-beater capped a 30-point performance against the Miami Heat. With the regular season winding down, the Grizzlies must quickly integrate elements of Iisalo’s system to maximize their playoff chances. While Iisalo seems inclined to emphasize Morant offensively, the team needs to harmonize this with the roles of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane. Internal expectations for the postseason appear tempered, with general manager Zach Kleiman seeking ‘clarity of direction’ under Iisalo. However, a surprising playoff run could significantly stabilize the team`s situation with Morant, especially after Taylor Jenkins`s unexpected dismissal. — Michael C. Wright
Which Western team poses the biggest threat to the Oklahoma City Thunder?
The Denver Nuggets, the reigning 2023 NBA champions, are the most likely team to challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder, a team poised to achieve the best point differential in league history. Nikola Jokic presents a formidable challenge for any team, even one with the defensive capabilities of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Jokic underscored this on March 10 in Oklahoma City, delivering 35 points, 18 rebounds, and 8 assists in a victory, supported by Jamal Murray`s 34 points, to even their regular-season series 2-2. The Nuggets will need consistent high-level performance from their second option, Murray, to overcome Oklahoma City, a task made tougher by Lu Dort, Murray`s Team Canada teammate, who anchors the Thunder`s top-ranked defense. — Tim MacMahon
What`s next for the Suns if they miss the play-in tournament altogether?
What could be worse than being a second apron team? Perhaps missing the playoffs with a $400 million payroll, including luxury taxes. And even worse? Having Bradley Beal, a player potentially needing to be traded, possessing a no-trade clause and publicly discussing his leverage. One more question: Are the Suns considering trading Kevin Durant this summer? Not ideally. However, the Suns` pathways to navigate out of the second apron—for future flexibility—seem to converge on Durant. Trading Beal is unlikely, and Devin Booker is off the table. This context explains why the Suns explored Durant trades at the deadline, conversations likely to resume this summer. A primary reason a Durant trade didn`t materialize in February—besides Durant`s preference to stay—was the Suns` high asking price, according to sources.
Regardless of Durant`s remaining peak performance, the desired return might be unrealistic. Durant will turn 37 at the start of next season, and while his $55 million salary next season is justifiable, the two-year, $120 million max extension he might seek may not attract suitors. Teams interested in Durant are likely contenders with already high payrolls. Should the Suns reach a point where trading Durant is necessary, they might have to choose between their ideal outcome—a substantial package of players and draft picks—and their essential need: financial flexibility. Last summer, the Clippers prioritized flexibility when letting Paul George depart, a tough decision that significantly reshaped their future. The Suns might closely examine this precedent. — Brian Windhorst
What will it take for the Lakers to make an NBA Finals run?
A favorable playoff bracket. With just a few games remaining in the regular season, the Lakers could realistically finish anywhere from No. 3 to No. 8 in the West. Avoiding the play-in tournament and securing a No. 6 seed or better would give the Lakers valuable time to prepare for the playoffs and allow injured players like LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Rui Hachimura to recover. Finishing No. 4 or higher would grant them home-court advantage for the first round at Crypto.com Arena, where they boast the second-best home record in the West. “We aim for the top four,” coach JJ Redick stated on Thursday. “We want home court advantage. Beyond home games, it would be beneficial for our team to finish the regular season in Portland and then have about nine or ten days at home.” Among lower-seeded teams, the Grizzlies would be a preferred first-round opponent, given the Lakers` past playoff success against them in 2023 and a 3-1 regular-season series win. Alternatively, facing Denver early could offer a chance to avenge previous playoff series losses. Or, a series against the Clippers, eliminating travel and potentially turning `road` games into home games with Laker fans at the Intuit Dome, could be advantageous. If the Lakers secure the No. 3 seed and avoid Oklahoma City until the conference finals, they could challenge the West`s top seed with momentum from a month of high-level play and growing confidence. — Dave McMenamin
The team the Warriors should want to avoid in the first round is: _______ Oklahoma City.
It would be a major setback for the Warriors, after striving for and maintaining the sixth seed for two months, to slip into the play-in tournament in the final week. Dropping below sixth would cost the Warriors a crucial week of rest before the first round and force them into the play-in. Stephen Curry (37), Draymond Green (35), and Jimmy Butler III (35) could then face the young and energetic Thunder. While the Warriors believe they can compete with any team, given the championship pedigree of Curry, Green, and Steve Kerr, plus the addition of ‘Playoff Jimmy,’ facing Oklahoma City would be a tough matchup despite a 2-1 season record against them before the Butler trade.
Beyond containing MVP contender Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Warriors would have to contend with rising stars Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. The Thunder`s top-tier defense can deploy multiple defenders on Curry, starting with the physical Lu Dort and Alex Caruso. Inside, Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein could pose problems for the smaller Warriors. Curry mentioned to ESPN in January that he and the Warriors believe they can defeat any team in a seven-game series, a confidence boosted by Butler`s arrival. However, the Warriors would prefer to avoid the league`s best team in the first round and use the extra time to rest their key players. — Ohm Youngmisuk
What`s behind the Timberwolves` late-season surge, and can it last?
Minnesota has consistently maintained a top-10 defense throughout the season, but their offense has significantly improved recently. By February`s end, the Timberwolves were 13th in offensive rating. Since March, they`ve jumped to third-best offense, trailing only the Clippers and Boston Celtics. This offensive boost largely comes from improved shooting in the backcourt: Mike Conley has shot an incredible 53.2% from 3-point range, while Donte DiVincenzo is hitting 43% from deep. Jaden McDaniels (38.2%) and Julius Randle (36.6%) have also increased their efficiency, providing Anthony Edwards with ample floor spacing.
It’s unlikely Minnesota’s role players will maintain this shooting level throughout the season; no NBA player sustains a 53.2% 3-point percentage long-term. The Timberwolves have also benefited from an easier schedule recently: in March, they were 10-1 against teams with losing records and 3-2 against winning teams. They appear stronger now compared to earlier in the season when they struggled to integrate Randle and DiVincenzo. — Zach Kram
What do projections suggest for the likely first-round matchups in the West?
There`s unwelcome news for Western playoff teams hoping to scout their first-round opponents early: with less than a week remaining in the regular season, only Oklahoma City securing the top seed is virtually certain. In contrast to the Eastern Conference, where the 4-5 matchup is likely to involve specific teams, no single Western Conference series occurs in more than 27% of ESPN`s Basketball Power Index simulations.
Even the most probable Western series, between the Grizzlies and the Houston Rockets, may not be confirmed until after the first play-in game, as Houston is likely to face the winner of the play-in game as the No. 2 seed. — Kevin Pelton