The 2024-25 NBA season felt like a transitional year, marked by diverging possibilities for the league`s future trajectory.
In a league often defined by dynasties, the preceding six years saw six different champions – a rare occurrence in NBA history. This season presented conflicting signals: would the era of parity continue, would dynasties return, or would something entirely new emerge?
For example, the recent regular season featured notably dominant teams. The Oklahoma City Thunder, with the top net rating, achieved the second-best figure since the 1976 NBA-ABA merger, trailing only the legendary 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. Additionally, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics also posted elite net ratings, ranking among the top 20 in modern history. This dominance might suggest an end to parity. However, a win by either OKC or Cleveland could actually extend the unique champions streak to an unprecedented seven consecutive seasons.
OKC is also one of the youngest teams in the league; a win could signal the immediate start of a new dynasty *after* the seven-year parity streak concludes. Conversely, a Celtics victory would mark the first back-to-back championship since the Golden State Warriors` run in 2017-18, potentially signifying a return to an era dominated by repeat winners.
Thus, even focusing on the top three teams, the outcome of this season`s playoffs holds the potential to steer the NBA down significantly different paths, depending on which team ultimately claims the title.
This analysis doesn`t even include the other teams with a legitimate chance to win the 2024-25 title, each of which carries its own potential implications for where the league is headed.
Let`s explore the dominant narratives that would emerge if each of these teams, ranked by their title odds (1%+), lifts the Larry O`Brien Trophy in June:
Jump to a team:
OKC | BOS | CLE | MIN
GSW | DEN | IND
NYK | LAC | HOU
Oklahoma City Thunder
The dominant narrative: Hope you enjoyed the era of unique champions while it lasted – a dynasty just started.
As mentioned, the Thunder winning could extend the league`s streak of different champions to seven consecutive seasons, dating back to 2018-19. This would be the first time *ever* the NBA has featured seven unique champions in a seven-year span, marking one of the strangest eras in league history. However, despite this immediate parity, the prevailing opinion upon an OKC Finals win would likely focus on the *future* – speculating that we might be entering a new era dominated by a burgeoning Thunder dynasty.
Beyond their historic net rating, they boast the presumptive league MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, alongside numerous core players (Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Isaiah Hartenstein) who are all 26 or younger. An Oklahoma City championship would serve as proof of concept for building an NBA powerhouse through meticulous asset stockpiling, scouting, drafting, and player development, strongly implying that their reign is just beginning.
Likelihood of hearing this narrative constantly: High
The Thunder surpassed the Celtics in betting odds late in the regular season and have the highest probability (43%) according to my forecast model, which combines Las Vegas odds with statistical power ratings. While not a guarantee, their biggest weakness from a year ago – lack of playoff experience – is now less of a concern.
Boston Celtics
The dominant narrative: Back-to-back titles are SO back.
From 1986-87, when the Lakers won the first of consecutive titles, to the Warriors` second straight win in 2017-18, 21 of the NBA`s 32 total championships (66%) were part of a multiyear run. Two-peats – or even three-peats – were the norm during this era. It`s been jarring to see zero back-to-back winners in the past six postseasons, the longest such streak since 2002-03 to 2007-08. A Celtics repeat this season would abruptly end that trend, giving the most decorated franchise its first set of back-to-back titles since 1967-69. Dynasty talk would certainly escalate: Boston has reached the conference finals in most recent seasons, is one of few post-merger teams with consecutive elite net ratings, and would be repeating with its core of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Likelihood of hearing this narrative constantly: High
Besides Oklahoma City, Boston is by far the next most likely team to win the 2025 title, with a 31% chance in my model. They are the defending champions, possess the most playoff experience among contenders, and likely have the most well-rounded seven-man rotation in the field.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The dominant narrative: Rumors of parity`s demise are greatly exaggerated.
While the Celtics could definitively end the era of NBA parity, and the Thunder would only technically extend it before likely starting their own prolonged run, the Cavaliers are the potential champion most likely to bridge to even more unique champions down the road. Donovan Mitchell is secured for at least two more seasons, as are Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and Darius Garland. However, the Cavs are older than OKC (average roster age 26.6) and lack the sustained elite track record of the Celtics or Thunder (they were 13th in net rating last year and lost to Boston in Round 2).
Even if Cleveland wins this year`s title, they likely wouldn`t be favored for 2026, which could then allow the streak of unique champions to reach at least eight next year – an absolutely unprecedented period of diverse winners in NBA history.
Likelihood of hearing this narrative constantly: Moderate
Although they won 64 games, second only to Oklahoma City (68), the Cavs` championship probability is significantly lower than the Thunder and Celtics, yet well above other teams. This gives them a realistic chance this season, but they aren`t strong enough favorites to be likely repeat candidates in the future.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The dominant narrative: The triumph of bold team-building.
Minnesota is another team whose victory would extend the league`s streak of different winners to seven seasons. The Timberwolves are currently experiencing a 36-year NBA title drought, tied for the sixth longest among teams that have never won a championship. A Wolves win would offer hope to all winless franchises aspiring to finally break through after decades of frustration.
Furthermore, they would be lauded for their bold team-building gambits coming to fruition. Just five years ago, Minnesota finished 19-45 with Karl-Anthony Towns and little surrounding him. After drafting Anthony Edwards No. 1 in 2020, the team, shaped by President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly, executed trades for Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Mike Conley. These moves, especially the Gobert trade, faced skepticism, but the Wolves undeniably assembled a highly effective all-around roster, ranking in the top eight on both offense and defense.
Likelihood of hearing this narrative constantly: Moderate
Minnesota pulled off a first-round upset, eliminating the Lakers in five games, and they might even be favored in the second round against the winner of the Houston-Golden State series. Any team with a clear path to the conference finals has a decent chance for their narrative to gain traction, but the Thunder remain heavy favorites in the West.
Golden State Warriors
The dominant narrative: The window is never closed for an all-time legend.
Perhaps fitting for a dynasty few initially expected, the Stephen Curry-era Warriors have been written off countless times, only to reappear very much alive. At age 37, Curry`s skills seem timeless, and as long as that remains true, Golden State always possesses a chance. If the Warriors secure a title in 2025, there will be a personal angle for Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler III, all of whom play with a perpetual chip on their shoulder. But the broader lesson for any front office fortunate enough to employ a legend like Curry is clear: never give up on him. Even if it requires repeatedly retooling the roster around him, another special run is always possible.
Likelihood of hearing this narrative constantly: Moderate to low
As great as Curry is, the Warriors face a tough path out of the West, likely needing to overcome Minnesota and then Oklahoma City if they advance past Houston. Adding to the challenge is Butler`s status – he returned for Game 4 against Houston after a pelvis contusion but needs to be 100%. Golden State faces an uphill battle to add another title this postseason, but Curry`s presence provides that enduring possibility.
Denver Nuggets
The dominant narrative: Sometimes, you have to shake things up at the last minute.
Should the Nuggets win the title, it would undoubtedly be the ultimate testament to Nikola Jokić`s all-time greatness, carrying *this specific group* to a championship. However, an even greater vindication might belong to Denver ownership for the unprecedented decision to fire title-winning coach Michael Malone just days before the playoffs began. Malone had consistent success in Denver, and despite reports of his relationship with the GM souring, the team still ranked highly in net rating this season.
Teams typically suppress the impulse to make such a drastic move on the eve of the postseason, but the Nuggets didn`t. A subsequent title run would grant permission to numerous other teams to make similarly drastic changes whenever they feel it necessary, irrespective of team performance or the timing in the season.
Likelihood of hearing this narrative constantly: Very low
The Nuggets are in a tight first-round battle with the Clippers but have been outscored significantly in the series and face Oklahoma City even if they advance. We`ll never know if keeping Malone would have doomed their season (it likely would have), but this specific scenario probably won`t be cited as a defense for firing a coach in early-to-mid April in the future.
Indiana Pacers
The dominant narrative: Improved (non-horrendous) defense wins championships.
As one of two remaining former ABA teams in the NBA without a title (along with the Nets franchise), and the one with more all-time playoff wins but fewer Finals appearances, a Pacers championship would carry the narrative of overcoming the franchise`s history of being perpetually good but not quite good enough. (Since the merger, only Phoenix and Utah have won more playoff games without a title.)
However, for copycats around the league, Indiana`s story might primarily be about improved balance and the necessity for offense-first teams to enhance their defense to truly succeed. During their breakout season, the Pacers were famously lopsided, ranking second in offense but 24th in defense. While this recipe was enough to reach the East finals, Indiana clearly sought better balance this season. They achieved it, dropping slightly to ninth in offense but significantly improving to 13th in defense.
If being above-average on both ends of the court is preferable to being elite on one and poor on the other, then the Pacers could provide a clinic on how shifting towards balance can be the crucial final piece for a championship puzzle.
Likelihood of hearing this narrative constantly: Low
The Pacers handled Milwaukee in Round 1, but that only earns them a second-round matchup with the formidable Cavaliers, followed most likely by the even mightier Celtics in the East finals. This challenging path puts a ceiling on their title odds.
New York Knicks
The dominant narrative: New York is the Mecca of basketball again.
Many storylines would undoubtedly emerge if the 2024-25 Knicks win the title. One would vindicate coach Tom Thibodeau for playing his core starters (Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart) an astronomical number of minutes during the regular season – often a recipe for playoff exhaustion and disappointment. Another involves how this core was assembled, being the opposite of a homegrown success story.
But on a grander scale, a Knicks victory would cement New York City`s status as the basketball capital of the world, a title it often claims regardless of recent success. Roughly six months after the WNBA`s Liberty won their title, the first major pro sports championship for NYC since 2011, a Knicks win would undeniably place New York back at the center of the hoops universe.
Likelihood of hearing this narrative constantly: Low
As excited as New York always gets when the Knicks are competitive, they still must finish off Detroit in a series marked by officiating controversies, then likely beat the Celtics and then the Cavs – or perhaps even worse, the Pacers, who have proven to be a difficult matchup for the Knicks.
LA Clippers
The dominant narrative: You all laughed – but who`s laughing now?
The Kawhi Leonard-Paul George pairing, formed in 2019, was expected to provide enough star power to end the franchise`s long history of playoff disappointment. Instead, the two were frequently sidelined by injuries and only advanced past Round 2 once, never reaching the NBA Finals. The addition of James Harden in 2023 was widely ridiculed, seen as adding another big name unreliable in the playoffs. Then George left for Philadelphia after another first-round exit.
The resulting Clippers seemed destined for mediocrity, especially after Leonard was injured again, missing most of the first half of the season. But it`s getting harder to laugh as Playoff Kawhi enjoys a renaissance and the rest of the team clicks. If they win a title, it would be the ultimate revenge against the rest of the NBA for writing this team off.
Likelihood of hearing this narrative constantly: Low
Although the Clippers have competed well against Denver with Leonard performing at a high level, they must now survive a seven-game series. A rested Thunder team awaits on the other side even if they reach Round 2. In short, the basketball world probably won`t have to process the shocking reality of a Clippers title this summer. (Probably.)
Houston Rockets
The dominant narrative: There`s a post-tanking blueprint.
Similar to the Wolves and Knicks, a major storyline for a Rockets championship would be the team-building success of General Manager Rafael Stone and Houston`s front office. A few years ago, the Rockets were one of the NBA`s most chaotic teams – the youngest, sloppiest, and least competitive squad in the immediate post-Harden era. However, instead of a typical slow rebuild, Houston rapidly accelerated its return to respectability by combining savvy veteran acquisitions (Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams) with a defensive-minded coach (Ime Udoka) and a rapidly improving young core (Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr.).
The result is a rare blueprint for successfully exiting a tank: Houston built the league`s fourth-best defense and developed a strong young foundation alongside veteran leadership. Winning a championship would validate the Rockets` bold strategy – proving that the path back to contention can be jump-started with the right mix of toughness, coaching, and player development.
Likelihood of hearing this narrative constantly: Very low … for now
Before the Rockets can even consider the narrative of their championship build, they must mount a comeback against Curry and the Warriors – no easy task. However, the upside is that we likely *will* hear a version of this story in future seasons, given the Rockets` promising potential.