David J., a professional sports bettor, spends his evenings monitoring live scores instead of watching the games themselves. Confident in his betting strategy, he remains unfazed by the outcomes. Sometimes, he even engages in online poker while awaiting the results of his sports wagers. However, December 2, 2024, was an exception.
In a game in Minnesota, the Los Angeles Lakers were trailing the Timberwolves by 15 points in the fourth quarter. More concerning for David J., LeBron James was having an unusually low-scoring game. David J., watching from his basement in Iowa, became increasingly anxious.
Earlier in the season, he noticed that FanDuel was offering bets on whether James would score at least 10 points in a game. Thinking it was a safe bet, he started wagering on it, accepting the unfavorable odds. In December, he decided to publicly share his strategy of risking significant amounts for small potential wins if James reached the 10-point mark.
On December 1st, a screenshot of his $10,125 bet at -1800 odds, aiming to win $562 on James scoring double digits against the Utah Jazz, went viral, gaining 3.3 million views on X. He boasted to his friends and engaged with critics on X who questioned his betting approach. He made sure to highlight his win when the bet was successful in the second quarter.
“I was amused by everyone calling me foolish, which might be true,” David J. admitted. “It might sound silly, but getting millions of views was exciting. It was enjoyable.”
The following night, December 2nd, was far more stressful. James, who had consistently scored at least 10 points in every game since 2007, had only accumulated seven points with 12 minutes remaining in a game against the Timberwolves. The possibility of James exiting the game early and ending his scoring streak became a real concern. David J. was sweating, worried about his $9,000 wager and potential backlash on social media from LeBron fans if his bet supposedly jinxed the streak.
“It would have been incredibly embarrassing. I imagined LeBron`s fan base targeting me if the bet failed and the streak ended. I was extremely nervous,” he recalled, laughing. “It was fun, but also terrifying.”
With 11:24 left, James made a layup, and shortly after, a free throw, reaching the 10-point threshold before leaving the game with seven minutes remaining and the Lakers down by 25. David J. was relieved. He avoided social media ridicule and won $562.50, enough for a new pair of pants.
The Rise of the LeBron 10-Point Betting Market
This unique betting market, centered around whether LeBron James will score 10 points, has gained significant traction in recent months, attracting substantial sums and pitting bettors against each other.
FanDuel discontinued offering this bet on a game-by-game basis in mid-December, instead focusing on bets related to James maintaining his streak for the remainder of the regular season. FanDuel had James as a -6000 favorite to score at least 10 points in the Lakers` remaining games before he was sidelined with a groin injury on March 8 against the Boston Celtics. He scored 22 points in that game before exiting.
With traditional sportsbooks moving away from game-by-game bets on this streak, wagering has shifted to peer-to-peer platforms like ProphetX, where users trade sports outcomes using virtual currency rather than betting against the sportsbook directly.
Jake Benzaquen, co-founder of ProphetX, stated that they`ve observed six-figure virtual currency trades on most nights, involving many customers, from high-stakes players betting `Yes` at odds like -5000, to smaller players betting `No` at long odds (50-1 or higher).
David J. claims to be up approximately $42,000 betting `yes` on James this season. His largest single bet was on Christmas Day, risking $74,275 at odds as low as -7000 for James to score at least 10 points against the Golden State Warriors.
“HE MIGHT CASH FIRST QUARTER,” he posted during the game. “YOU GUYS ARE SO STUPID.”
He won $1,250 by the second quarter when James surpassed 10 points with a three-pointer.
The Counter-Bet: Wagering Against LeBron
Chris D., a hedge fund analyst and experienced bettor in his mid-20s, has taken the opposite side of David J.`s bets. He believes the hype around the streak has inflated the odds and has bet against James scoring 10 points in several games this season.
“I`ve lost over $10,000 on it,” Chris D. admitted.
He argues that there is value in betting against the streak when odds reach 65-1 or longer, estimating the true probability of James scoring fewer than 10 points at around 2%, or 50-1. He used AI to analyze NBA player injury history and considered James` age (40) and durability. He focused on assessing how much James prioritizes maintaining the streak.
“This is where I differ from most,” Chris D. explained. “I think LeBron wants to continue the streak, but he already holds the record. I don’t think it’s as important to him as people believe.”
“I`m not a LeBron critic,” he added. “My approach is based on price sensitivity.”
David J. disagrees, convinced that James is highly motivated to keep the streak going. He believes the actual probability of James scoring under 10 points is less than 1%, closer to 120-1 odds. Statistically, James has scored fewer than 10 points in only 8 out of 1,550 regular-season games, or 0.52% of the time.
Both bettors essentially wager on the likelihood of James getting injured early in a game. On March 20, 2021, James injured his ankle early in a game against the Atlanta Hawks. Having scored seven points at the time, he chose to remain in the game for one more possession, made a three-pointer to reach 10 points, and then exited. He subsequently missed the next 17 games due to the ankle injury.
James returned from his groin injury on Saturday in a loss to the Chicago Bulls, scoring 17 points, securing another win for David J.
“If he gets to eight points, he`s going to get to 10,” David J. stated. “He`ll make a basket.” David J. has improved his betting setup since those December nights in Iowa and is now betting from Arizona. He notes that the betting volume for the James 10-point prop has increased significantly since his social media posts, but so have the odds.
“You can still bet substantial amounts most game days,” he said. “But you have to accept higher odds.”
Even with odds climbing to -7000, requiring a $7,000 risk to win $100, David J. believes it remains worthwhile and plans to continue betting on James as much as possible, disregarding critics.
“It`s advantageous to be on the -7000 side,” he concluded. “Even if it`s a questionable bet, there`s a good chance I can gloat over those who initially mocked me.”