The Golden State Warriors began their second-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves with a Game 1 victory on Tuesday. This win secured home-court advantage for the lower-seeded Warriors, but it came at a significant cost. Following his departure from the game due to a hamstring injury, star guard Stephen Curry was diagnosed on Wednesday with a Grade 1 strain, according to reports.
With projections indicating Curry will miss at least the upcoming week, potentially sidelining him for a minimum of three games, the Warriors must find ways to replicate their shooting success from Game 1 and remain competitive in the series without their key player.
Let`s analyze how Golden State might adjust to Curry`s absence for Game 2 and consider the urgency of his return if the Warriors hope to advance to the conference finals for the first time since their championship run in 2022, where Curry earned Finals MVP honors.
Warriors` Shooting Edge: Likely Unsustainable
When Curry exited the game shortly after hitting a 3-pointer that gave him 13 points in 13 minutes, the Warriors held a 10-point lead. Remarkably, Golden State actually extended their lead to as much as 23 points before the Timberwolves mounted a fourth-quarter rally.
Even without their prolific scorer, the Warriors maintained strong 3-point shooting in the pivotal third quarter, converting 5 of 9 attempts. Buddy Hield continued his hot shooting streak from Sunday`s Game 7, sinking three 3-pointers. Draymond Green also delivered an uncharacteristically high-volume performance from deep, hitting four 3-pointers – his most in a playoff game since 2017 – with two coming immediately after Curry left the court.
In contrast, the Minnesota Timberwolves` shooting woes persisted from their previous series against the Los Angeles Lakers, where they shot poorly from three in Game 5. In Game 1 against the Warriors, Minnesota missed all 15 of their first-half attempts from beyond the arc and 16 in a row before Naz Reid finally ended the drought early in the third quarter. The Timberwolves finished shooting just 5-of-29 (17%) on 3-pointers, marking their second-worst percentage of the season, only slightly better than their performance in Game 5 of their first-round series.
It`s highly improbable that Minnesota`s poor shooting will continue into Game 2. Historical data from the past decade shows virtually no correlation between 3-point shooting percentages in the first two games of a playoff series, suggesting regression to the mean is likely for the Timberwolves.
Golden State significantly benefited from their accuracy in Game 1, outscoring Minnesota by 39 points from the 3-point line. Should that difference be neutralized, the Timberwolves would undoubtedly be favored to win the series, especially with Curry unavailable.
Golden State`s Adjustments Without Steph
Generating offense without Stephen Curry has historically presented a challenge for the Golden State Warriors, even during their successful runs. This season, lineups featuring players other than Curry ranked in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency, specifically the 11th percentile, according to statistical analysis.
However, the mid-season acquisition of Jimmy Butler offers Golden State a better opportunity to piece together a competitive offense. Butler provides superior playmaking compared to other available point guard options (like Brandin Podziemski, a natural wing who often backed up Curry). His effectiveness in drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line also provides a reliable source of points that can stabilize Golden State`s efficiency.
Lineups featuring Butler but not Curry have performed at a league-average offensive rating since the trade deadline, per Cleaning the Glass. Crucially, these units have significantly outscored opponents by an impressive 12.8 points per 100 possessions, largely thanks to their elite defense, which ranks in the 99th percentile.
The main challenge for Warriors coach Steve Kerr over the coming games will be managing Jimmy Butler`s minutes effectively to avoid overworking him, particularly as Butler is also dealing with a pelvis contusion that sidelined him for a Game 3 in the first round. Since his return, Butler has averaged 20.4 points but is shooting just 42% from the field, indicating he may not be at full strength.
Kerr and his coaching staff will need to strategically rest Butler, which will leave the team without its primary playmaker. In the second half of Game 1, they staggered his time on court with Draymond Green, resting Butler for the final three minutes of the third quarter, a period during which the Warriors were still able to slightly extend their lead (plus-1).
With some established role players like Moses Moody and Quinten Post facing difficulties, Curry`s injury also necessitated deeper rotation minutes for Kerr in Game 1. Jonathan Kuminga saw 13 minutes of action, contributing five points, while Pat Spencer, who had played only seconds in the previous game, provided unexpected energy with four points and two steals.
Curry`s Injury Keeps Minnesota Favored
Normally, a lower-seeded team like the Warriors winning Game 1 on the road in what was considered a closely matched series would shift the series odds significantly in their favor. However, due to Stephen Curry`s injury, Minnesota is now considered a stronger favorite than they were before the series began, with their odds translating to an implied 65% chance of advancing.
Factoring in Curry`s absence and the historical trend of home teams bouncing back strongly after losing Game 1, Minnesota is currently favored by 10.5 points for Game 2 on Thursday. They are also expected to be favored for Games 3 and 4 in Golden State, although by a potentially smaller margin.
Beyond the duration of time Curry will miss, a critical factor for the Warriors is the level of performance he can offer upon his return. If he attempts to come back too soon, his mobility and overall effectiveness on the court could be noticeably compromised.
As an extreme cautionary tale, James Harden returned ahead of schedule from what he described as a more severe Grade 2 hamstring strain in the 2021 playoffs. He came back for Game 1 of the conference semifinals after Kyrie Irving`s injury. Heavily limited by his injury, Harden struggled significantly, averaging just 14.3 points on 31% shooting over the final three games as his team ultimately lost the series in Game 7 overtime.
The risk of reinjury is also a significant concern with hamstring strains. Any victories the Warriors can manage to secure while Curry is sidelined will buy them valuable time, potentially allowing him to reach closer to 100 percent recovery before he is cleared to play again. Regardless, Stephen Curry`s injury has fundamentally changed the context surrounding the Warriors` surprising Game 1 victory.