Statistical Vulnerabilities for NBA Playoff Contenders in 2025

Stat Category: 3-point percentage (31.8%, ranked 30th)

Why it matters: Three-point accuracy is a crucial predictor of reaching the Finals in today`s NBA, where three-pointers accounted for a record 42.2% of shots this season. The Magic, who were 18th in three-point attempt frequency and last in accuracy (31.8%), are significantly lagging behind this key trend. Neither star players Paolo Banchero nor Franz Wagner are efficient outside shooters, and none of the team`s top 10 players in minutes played shot above league average from three-point range.

Saving Grace? Opponent Block Rate (8.7%, ranked 10th) – Orlando is effective at finishing near the basket, a valuable trait in the playoffs against shot-blocking defenders.

Stat Category: 2-point percentage (51.8%, ranked 27th)

Why it matters: While three-point shooting is vital, research suggests that a team`s two-point field goal percentage can be equally or even more important for predicting Finals appearances over the past decade. This is concerning for the Rockets, who struggled with overall shooting efficiency. They ranked below average in three-point frequency and accuracy and were one of the league`s worst teams at making two-point shots. Three of their top five scorers shot 48% or worse inside the arc. While their league-leading offensive rebounding rate helps, teams overly reliant on offensive boards have not historically fared well in reaching the Finals.

Saving Grace? WAR of best player (Amen Thompson at 8.8, ranked 8th) – This highlights the impact of playoff stars. Although Thompson doesn`t have the highest usage, he is recognized as one of the most effective two-way players in the playoff field.

Stat Category: 3-point attempt rate (35.6% of FGA, ranked 30th)

Why it matters: Unlike Orlando, Denver is an excellent three-point shooting team (37.6%, 5th). However, their offensive strategy, heavily centered around Nikola Jokić`s interior scoring and passing, results in a low frequency of three-point attempts. Only one player among their top seven in minutes shot threes at an above-average frequency. While effective, recent playoff history shows that contenders benefit from consistently high three-point volume, even after accounting for accuracy. Their low attempt rate persisted even after a coaching change late in the season.

Saving Grace? WAR of best player (Jokić at 17.9, ranked 1st) – Having a player of Jokić`s exceptional talent, coming off an MVP-caliber season, is often enough to compensate for most team weaknesses.

Stat Category: Team free throw rate (27.1 FTAs per 100 FGA, ranked 1st)

Why it matters: This stat is a potential negative despite seemingly being a positive. Teams heavily reliant on free throws for offense can thrive in the regular season due to frequent whistles. However, playoff games are often called tighter, leading to fewer free throw attempts per possession (FTA per 100 FGA has decreased in recent postseasons). This strength can become a liability. The Lakers are particularly susceptible as their highest-usage players (Luka Dončić, LeBron James, Austin Reaves) are all strong foul-drawers, especially Dončić and Reaves.

Saving Grace? Previous playoff experience (2183.8 minutes per player, weighted, ranked 2nd) – A significant factor in playoff success is prior experience. Only the Boston Celtics have more cumulative playoff minutes on their roster than the Lakers.

Stat Category: 2-point percentage (52.8%, ranked 23rd)

Why it matters: Golden State`s interior scoring efficiency isn`t as poor as Houston`s, placing it in the moderate concern category. However, they are not a strong finishing team inside and were among the league`s worst mid-range shooting teams. While these aren`t primary focuses of their offense, better conversion rates on interior shots would enhance their overall offensive efficiency (ranked 15th). Notably, none of their top nine players in minutes played shot at or above league average for two-point percentage.

Saving Grace? Previous playoff experience (1960.6 minutes per player, weighted, ranked 3rd) – Similar to the Lakers, the Warriors boast extensive playoff experience, bolstered by the addition of two-time finalist Jimmy Butler mid-season.

Stat Category: Free throw attempt rate (26.8 FTA per 100 FGA, ranked 3rd)

Why it matters: As previously discussed, teams overly reliant on drawing fouls can struggle when playoff officiating tightens. The Bucks are one of the main drivers of this trend, largely due to Giannis Antetokounmpo, who consistently ranks high in free throw rate and ensures Milwaukee is among the league leaders in foul drawing. While Antetokounmpo`s free throw percentage has been inconsistent, his rate of getting to the line tends to decrease in the playoffs relative to the league average, as does that of his teammate Damian Lillard. Their combined ability to draw fouls powered their high regular-season rate.

Saving Grace? WAR of best player (Antetokounmpo at 12.5, ranked 3rd) – Despite potential free throw concerns, the 2021 NBA champion is an undeniable force capable of carrying the Bucks deep into the postseason.

Stat Category: Opponent FT rate (27.6 FTA per 100 FGA, ranked 27th)

Why it matters: While free-throw-reliant offenses tend to underperform in the playoffs, the opposite seems true for teams that *send opponents* to the line frequently; they historically make the Finals less often. This could be because in slower, half-court playoff games, giving away free points at the line is particularly costly, and teams may have more control over their fouling than their ability to draw fouls. The Pistons sent opponents to the line often this season. Despite good rim protection, players like Isaiah Stewart, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren were among the league`s frequent foulers.

Saving Grace? Two-point percentage (55.0%, ranked 16th) – Although middle-of-the-pack, this stat is weighted highly in predicting Finals teams. The same Pistons players mentioned for fouling also demonstrated strong two-point shooting numbers.

Stat Category: Opponent FT rate (27.2 FTA per 100 FGA, ranked 26th)

Why it matters: The Thunder`s youth and relative lack of playoff experience (though improved from last year) is a known concern, but their proneness to fouling opponents places them similarly to Detroit. OKC was highly disruptive defensively, leading the league in steals and ranking second in blocks per 100 possessions, even with Chet Holmgren missing significant time. Fouls are often a byproduct of such aggressive defense. If there`s a statistical area of concern for a team that won 68 games and had an elite net rating, it`s this tendency to send opponents to the line.

Saving Grace? WAR of best player (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 17.8, ranked 2nd) – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić were arguably the league`s top players this season, with SGA a likely MVP winner. Players of this caliber have a disproportionately high rate of reaching the Finals.

Stat Category: Opponent FT rate (26.7 FTA per 100 FGA, ranked 25th)

Why it matters: The Grizzlies also fit the profile of a foul-prone team, similar to the Thunder. They ranked among the league leaders in block and steal rates, contributing to a top-10 defense. Players like Zach Edey, Scotty Pippen Jr., Jaren Jackson Jr., and Brandon Clarke (though injured) are known for disruption, but this often comes with sending opponents to the free-throw line. This defensive tendency might not be fully conducive to a sustained playoff run.

Saving Grace? Two-point percentage (55.6%, ranked 9th) – Memphis is an effective shooting team inside the arc, with most key players converting at or near the league average two-point percentage.

Stat Category: 3-point attempt rate (38.2% of FGA, ranked 28th)

Why it matters: Like Denver, the Knicks are decent three-point shooters when they attempt them (36.9%, 8th). However, three-point volume is not a significant part of the shot profiles for most of their main players, with Miles McBride being a notable exception. Many Knicks players focus on interior scoring or attacking the basket, like Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson. Playoff opponents can often scheme to limit a team`s primary offensive actions in a seven-game series, making a lack of three-point volume a potential vulnerability.

Saving Grace? Two-point percentage (55.8%, ranked 8th) – The counterbalance to their low three-point volume is their efficiency inside the arc, converting two-pointers at one of the league`s highest rates. Josh Hart`s nearly 62% two-point percentage is particularly impressive for his position.

Stat Category: 3-point attempt rate (38.7% of FGA, ranked 25th)

Why it matters: It`s somewhat surprising that a team featuring James Harden as a primary scorer would be among the least reliant teams on three-pointers. The Clippers have a mixed distribution of shots among key players: some shoot threes frequently (Harden, Norman Powell), others rarely (Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac), and few, like Nicolas Batum, take a very high proportion of threes. While the Clippers potentially have the personnel to increase their three-point volume if needed, their current low attempt rate is worth monitoring.

Saving Grace? Previous playoff experience (1820.7 minutes per player, weighted, ranked 4th) – A large portion of this experience comes from Harden and Leonard, but Batum and Powell also contribute significant postseason minutes.

Stat Category: 2-point percentage (53.8%, ranked 20th)

Why it matters: Aside from facing a challenging first-round opponent as the 10th seed, the Heat`s relatively weak two-point conversion rate is a minor concern. This is somewhat symbolized by Bam Adebayo`s shooting decline inside the arc; his two-point percentage has dropped significantly compared to his early career, shifting from well above to slightly below league average.

Stat Category: 3-point attempt rate (40.0% of FGA, ranked 21st)

Why it matters: Despite featuring prolific three-point shooter Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers as a team do not attempt threes at a particularly high rate. Beyond Haliburton, most key players don`t take a significantly above-average proportion of their shots from three, and several are well below. While they still achieved a high offensive rating (9th) with this approach, their lower three-point volume could make them slightly easier to defend from the perimeter compared to other high-powered offenses.

Stat Category: Opponent assist rate (opponents assist on 59.6% of made FGs, ranked 29th)

Why it matters: That such a niche statistic represents the Celtics` biggest red flag among highly predictive stats speaks volumes about their overall strength. Boston excelled in most key playoff metrics. However, it`s historically been observed, somewhat counterintuitively, that teams allowing *fewer* opponent assists (which typically indicates strong individual defense and disruption, areas where Boston excels) have slightly worse playoff outcomes. This remains a minor, less conventional concern.

Stat Category: Free throw attempt rate (24.9 FTA per 100 FGA, ranked 10th)

Why it matters: Led by Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert, the Timberwolves are effective at getting to the free-throw line, despite having a relatively low rate of two-point attempts (25th) which typically generate more fouls than threes. This reliance could potentially be impacted by tighter playoff officiating. However, it`s worth noting that the Wolves` top scorers maintained or increased their free throw rates in last season`s playoffs, suggesting that a drop in calls wasn`t their primary issue.

Stat Category: Playoff experience (657.6 minutes per player, weighted, ranked 15th)

Why it matters: While players like Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus bring significant prior playoff experience, the Cavaliers` roster average for weighted playoff minutes is lower than ideal by historical standards, though better than some teams in recent years. Teams in this range (500-1000 average previous minutes) have historically tended to win slightly fewer playoff games than their regular-season performance would suggest. This makes their relative lack of deep playoff experience a minor, but present, concern.