As the 2024-25 NBA regular season nears its end, teams are focusing on the upcoming playoffs. With the regular season concluding on April 13, there are still many important games to be played.
While the Oklahoma City Thunder have secured the top seed in the Western Conference, the battle for the second seed in the West remains intense. In the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, and New York Knicks have already clinched their playoff berths.
Our NBA experts — Brian Windhorst, Bobby Marks, Tim MacMahon, Zach Kram, and Jamal Collier — analyze the key aspects to watch in these final weeks, from player contract bonuses to the race for the top draft pick.
Which Player Contract Incentives Are Worth Watching?
Before this season, 53 players, including notable names like Kevin Durant, Derrick White, Aaron Gordon, and Dejounte Murray, had contract incentives. These incentives ranged from All-Star Game selections (Durant) to seasonal 3-pointers made (White). Durant, White, and Jae`Sean Tate (team wins) have already met their targets, earning a combined $2 million. White also earned an additional $500,000 for playing in at least 70 games.
Looking at the remaining players, ESPN predicts that only five – Dillon Brooks, Jonathan Isaac, Cameron Johnson, Chris Paul, and Julius Randle – are currently on track to achieve their regular-season bonuses.
In his second season with Houston, Dillon Brooks is averaging 13.9 points and 1.8 assists.
Brooks will receive $1 million if the Houston Rockets secure a playoff spot. Johnson stands to gain $562,000 if his true shooting percentage stays above 60% – currently, it`s 63.2%. Paul is just one win away from a $262,000 bonus and is also on pace for two more bonuses related to net rating and true shooting, potentially adding another $523,000. Randle`s $1.4 million bonus is contingent on the Timberwolves reaching the first round; they are currently in the play-in tournament, just half a game behind the Golden State Warriors for the sixth seed.
Isaac`s bonus – a significant $2.6 million for playing 70 regular-season games for the Orlando Magic – seemed the least likely at the season`s start. Having struggled with injuries throughout his career, he only played 69 games in the previous two seasons. This season, he has already played 65 games, on track for his highest number since 2018-19. — Bobby Marks
Which Playoff-Contending Team Has the Most at Stake This Postseason?
Memphis has become a focal point after firing coach Taylor Jenkins with only three weeks left in the season, introducing significant uncertainty.
Firstly, the Grizzlies are taking a gamble by appointing interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, known for his high-intensity and system-oriented approach. While successful overseas, Iisalo lacks NBA playoff experience. This bold move, possibly driven by General Manager Zach Kleiman`s belief in Iisalo`s fast-paced, dynamic offense that challenges NBA norms, is intriguing. It remains to be seen if this change – Jenkins had seemingly moved away from aggressive offense as the Grizzlies struggled – can propel Memphis into a strong postseason.
Secondly, the team`s key players` reactions to this new direction are crucial. This season, stars Ja Morant and Desmond Bane have seen reductions in their playing time, shot attempts, and scoring. Despite improved offensive efficiency for the Grizzlies overall, questions have arisen about Morant`s feelings regarding these changes, especially as he becomes eligible for a contract extension this summer. Rumors about his future in Memphis prompted Kleiman to publicly dismiss them after the trade deadline in February.
Ultimately, the Grizzlies have underperformed. After impressive regular seasons in 2021-22 and 2022-23, where they secured the second seed in the West, they failed to reach the conference finals, partly due to Morant`s off-court issues. Last season was marred by injuries and Morant`s suspension. Now, despite again reaching the second seed in early February, their standing has declined, and momentum has stalled as playoffs approach. They need to prove their capabilities when it truly counts. — Brian Windhorst
Which Playoff Positioning Battle in the East Deserves the Closest Watch?
Pay close attention to the three-way fight for the fourth to sixth seeds in the Eastern Conference, involving the Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, and Milwaukee Bucks. This competition has intensified following the announcement of Damian Lillard`s indefinite absence due to blood clots in his right calf. Although reports suggest optimism for Lillard`s return this season, the Bucks will be without their key player for a significant period and have already lost six of their last 10 games, dropping to the sixth seed.
The Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers are competing for the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference.
Meanwhile, Indiana has been among the league`s hottest teams since the All-Star break, with a 13-8 record, and Tyrese Haliburton is performing at an All-NBA level again. The surging Pistons are also in the mix, aiming to host a first-round series in their first playoff appearance since 2019. If the Bucks remain at the sixth seed, they are likely to face the Knicks in a high-profile first-round matchup, with the winner potentially facing the Celtics in the second round. The Cavaliers, in contrast, would have a potentially easier path to the conference finals, facing less experienced teams in a possible second-round series. — Jamal Collier
Which Tanking Team Needs Cooper Flagg the Most?
In the past two seasons, the Utah Jazz remained competitive for much of the season before strategically tanking towards the end. Consequently, they picked ninth and tenth in the last two drafts, missing out on a franchise-defining player. This season, they initiated tanking earlier—even facing a fine for violating player participation policies—and are now likely to have the best lottery odds.
Utah`s need for Flagg is greater than other teams vying for a better lottery position. The Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets are still in the early phases of rebuilding, and the Charlotte Hornets already boast a potentially dynamic duo in LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. Additionally, the New Orleans Pelicans and Philadelphia 76ers are expected to be competitive again next season with improved player health. However, the Jazz, having traded Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert three years ago, still lack a young star to build around. Flagg would fill this gap. While the Duke freshman would be a valuable addition to any lottery team, he would be particularly impactful in Utah, creating a formidable defensive frontcourt with Walker Kessler and partnering with another skilled forward in Lauri Markkanen. — Zach Kram
OKC Leads the West by 13½ Games. Who Will Secure the No. 2 Seed?
The second seed in the Western Conference is currently Houston`s to lose, despite preseason expectations. The Rockets hold a two-game lead over the Nuggets, with the tiebreaker between these teams to be decided in Houston on the final day of the regular season.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Lakers remain within striking distance if the Rockets falter, trailing by 4½ and 3½ games respectively. Two of the Rockets` remaining eight games are against the Lakers on the road. — Tim MacMahon
Which Players Should We Watch to Meet the 65-Game Minimum?
There`s no concern for stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Anthony Edwards regarding postseason award eligibility. All three have met the 65-game requirement. Gilgeous-Alexander is eligible for MVP consideration, and Jackson qualifies for a potential five-year, $345 million supermax extension if named All-NBA or Defensive Player of the Year. However, several past award winners are currently below the threshold, including Nikola Jokic (64), Evan Mobley (64), LeBron James (63), Jalen Brunson (61), Stephen Curry (62), Giannis Antetokounmpo (62), Kevin Durant (62), Domantas Sabonis (61), Jaylen Brown (59), and Draymond Green (59). Players must play at least 20 minutes to have a game count, with a two-game allowance for games between 15 and 20 minutes. — Marks