Scottie vs. Rory, Surprise Contenders, and More PGA Championship Storylines

While Scottie Scheffler is the slight betting favorite and is coming off his first victory of the 2025 season, I believe there`s a strong case to be made that Rory McIlroy is currently the best golfer globally. He has already won three times on tour this year, each against strong fields at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Players Championship, and the Masters, where he achieved the career Grand Slam, becoming only the sixth player to do so.

McIlroy`s recent stellar form combined with his impressive track record at Quail Hollow Club – four wins and a runner-up finish – makes him the player to beat this week. Scheffler has no stroke-play appearances here, and his sole competitive experience at Quail Hollow during the 2022 Presidents Cup was forgettable; he went 0-3-1, contributing only half a point to the U.S. team`s victory.

I concur with Mark – Rory should be the favorite, and his current form is unmatched heading into this event. It`s quite remarkable how quickly the landscape at the very top of the game can change. Scheffler has demonstrated exceptional consistency throughout the season, but because his win total isn`t matching last year`s incredible pace, it has essentially created an opening for McIlroy to once again be considered the world`s top player. I wouldn`t be surprised at all if, by Sunday, both are competing fiercely for the championship and find themselves in direct contention.

Justin Thomas is currently playing some of the best golf of his career and previously won the PGA Championship held at Quail Hollow in 2017. JT ended a nearly three-year win drought on tour by winning the RBC Heritage in a playoff on April 20. He also finished as the runner-up at the Valspar Championship (a tournament he likely should have won but finished with bogeys on two of the last three holes) and tied for second at last week`s Truist Championship, two strokes behind the winner.

Thomas has a solid history at Quail Hollow, finishing in the top 26 in five out of his six starts there. He ranks impressively in strokes gained: fifth in tee to green (1.227) and approach (.896), and 20th in putting (.432).

So, you`re telling me this is one of the longest courses in professional golf, with significant rough and recent rain making driving distance crucial, and you`re *not* picking Bryson DeChambeau? Quail Hollow is poised to be a bomber`s paradise this year, and nobody hits the ball further and better than DeChambeau. According to Data Golf, DeChambeau is gaining over two strokes on the field with his driver, which is an entire stroke ahead of the second-ranked player in that category. But it`s not just his driving; DeChambeau has significantly improved other areas of his game over the past few years, evidenced by his five top-10 finishes in the last nine majors. If he can replicate his performance at Valhalla last year, he will absolutely be a factor in contention.

After being sidelined for over two months due to a painful rib injury, Xander Schauffele`s game is now trending positively. He has recorded four consecutive strong finishes, including a tie for eighth at the Masters and a tie for 11th at the Truist Championship.

While he ranks seventh in strokes gained: approach (.821), his stats off the tee (157th, -.320), around the green (135th, -.155), and in putting (140th, -.244) indicate areas for improvement. This is likely more attributable to a lack of recent competitive rounds than anything else. The bottom line remains: Schauffele has won two of the past four majors and finished in the top 10 in seven of the past nine. Also worth noting, he finished runner-up in his last two starts at Quail Hollow.

Schauffele is currently one of the sport`s most intriguing figures. His baseline level of play is so exceptionally high that even without being in midseason form, he consistently finds himself with top-20 finishes. Over his most recent four tournaments, Schauffele`s lowest finish was a tie for 18th, and he tied for 11th last week. Honestly, I have no certainty about what to expect from him at Quail Hollow this week, but the fact that the defending champion (and a two-time major winner) is somewhat flying under the radar is quite telling.

Given that distance off the tee will be extremely important at Quail Hollow Club, how could you not expect Bryson DeChambeau to be in the mix? He finished as the runner-up at last year`s PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club, losing to Schauffele by only one shot. At the Masters, he held the lead early in the final round before a 3-over 75 saw him fade to a tie for fifth. No one hits the ball as far as DeChambeau from the tee, and if his iron play is sharper than it was at Augusta National, I wouldn`t be surprised to see him holding the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday. Patrick Reed, who finished third alone at the Masters, also has a respectable history at Quail Hollow.

Until he secures a top-10 finish at a major, my answer will consistently be Joaquín Niemann. It`s becoming quite apparent that a player who regularly wins on the LIV Tour struggles to emerge when competing against the world`s best players at a major championship venue. Niemann certainly has the game required to win multiple majors, and Data Golf ranks him among the top-10 players globally right now. So, why doesn`t this translate during the four most significant weeks of the year? This remains the lingering question over Niemann`s career, and this week provides another opportunity for him to defy that trend.

Following Sepp Straka`s second win of the season, golfers who played at the University of Georgia have now won five times in 22 PGA Tour events this year. Another former Bulldog, Keith Mitchell, has shown improving form after facing difficulties at the end of 2024. Mitchell has recorded five straight top-25 finishes, including a tie for second and a tie for seventh last week. He ranks 11th on tour in driving distance (313.3 yards) and 21st in strokes gained: tee to green (.868). Mitchell also has two career top-10 finishes specifically at Quail Hollow. Canada`s Taylor Pendrith hasn`t had standout results recently but did secure three top-10 finishes earlier this season. He is another player who hits the ball a long way off the tee (307.9 yards) and is effective at hitting greens in regulation (70.6%). While his short game and putting haven`t been consistent, if his putter gets hot this week, he could potentially be in contention.

Here`s a two-for-one special: keep an eye on the Højgaard twins, Nicolai and Rasmus. Both possess the required length for this course and could potentially make some unexpected noise this week. As for other young players worth watching, I`d also include Michael Thorbjornsen in that group; he has secured two top-5 finishes this season and has been playing consistently strong golf lately. Finally, after observing Akshay Bhatia at the Players Championship, it`s clear he possesses the game needed to win a major. Perhaps Quail Hollow, where his game is developed but not yet perfect, could be the ideal venue for his major breakthrough.

Quail Hollow is notably long, stretching to 7,626 yards, making it the fourth-longest course in PGA Championship history and the longest ever for a par-71 layout. It is expected to play even longer after the course received significant rain on Monday, with more precipitation forecasted through Wednesday. This means there will likely be minimal roll on the fairways, placing an even greater emphasis on driving distance and proficiency with long irons.

Players aiming for contention will also need to perform well around the greens, as missing them will likely be common. According to research, during the 2017 PGA Championship here, eight greens were hit successfully less than 50% of the time; the opening hole saw successful greens in regulation only 33% of the time.

Golfers will need to manage the challenging par 3s (three are over 200 yards), capitalize on scoring opportunities on the par 5s, and successfully navigate the notorious three-hole closing stretch known as the `Green Mile.` Data from 2017 shows this closing stretch saw more double-bogeys or worse (99) than birdies or better (88).