The opening round of the 2025 NBA playoffs has already delivered its share of excitement, featuring thrilling finishes, overtime battles, and stellar individual performances. These moments serve as a potent reminder of how minor details can ultimately determine the outcome of a best-of-seven series.
Perhaps the most dramatic instance was Aaron Gordon`s game-winning dunk at the buzzer in Game 4 of the intense Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers series. A frame-by-frame look confirmed the ball left Gordon`s hand just before the clock hit zero – a play that could potentially swing the series, where the Nuggets currently hold a 3-2 lead.
Given the limited number of games played over the first two weeks of the postseason, the trends we`ve observed may not hold true long-term. Nevertheless, it`s valuable to analyze whether they could impact the ongoing series, particularly the critical matchups scheduled for Wednesday in the Western Conference.
Are the Minnesota Timberwolves` ability to close games effectively and the Houston Rockets` success with two centers on the court genuine strategic advantages? The answers to these questions could decide if the Los Angeles Lakers can force a Game 6 against Minnesota and if the Golden State Warriors can overcome Houston.
Let`s examine the data to distinguish between the initial key takeaways from the playoffs that appear sustainable and those that likely aren`t.
Trend: Minnesota Timberwolves dominating crunch time
The Timberwolves` struggles in tight contests during the regular season were a primary reason they had to fight to avoid the play-in tournament, despite boasting the second-best point differential (+5.0 PPG) in the Western Conference. Minnesota finished the regular season with a 20-26 record in games defined as `clutch` by NBA advanced stats (within five points in the final five minutes), and their -8.4 net rating in these situations was better than only two other playoff teams, Detroit and Miami.
Heading into this series, close games were expected to favor the Lakers, who had a 23-16 clutch record, securing the No. 3 seed in the West despite only the eighth-best point differential. However, after splitting two blowout games in Los Angeles, Minnesota demonstrated a +14 net rating in clutch situations during two close home games, pushing the Lakers to the brink of elimination.
By its nature, crunch time performance in a single series is prone to small-sample randomness. Despite Anthony Edwards` efforts late in games, the Timberwolves` most efficient scorer from the field in these moments has been center Naz Reid, who hit all three of his 3-point attempts. It`s difficult to extrapolate much from this for a potential second-round series, where Minnesota would have home-court advantage if the No. 7 seed Warriors also advance.
Yet, within this specific series, the Lakers` clutch struggles feel less random and more tied to fatigue. The Lakers` strategy since adding Luka Doncic has been for him to control the first three quarters, allowing LeBron James to take over late. In Game 3, Doncic`s illness disrupted this plan, forcing James to carry too heavy a burden early.
In Game 4 on Sunday, Lakers coach JJ Redick apparently felt he couldn`t rely on his bench for even a minute in the second half, keeping the same five players on the court. Both scenarios left James visibly tired for the final stretch. In Game 3, the Lakers scored only one point (a free throw) in the last 4.5 minutes. While role players Dorian Finney-Smith and Rui Hachimura hit crucial 3s late in Game 4, Doncic and James were scoreless in the final five minutes, missing all four of their shots.
Had a play or two gone differently on Sunday, the Lakers might have won, and they could potentially secure a clutch victory on Wednesday to prolong the series. However, the Timberwolves` superior depth gives them a crucial edge in close games, reversing an advantage the Lakers previously held.
Verdict: Real for this series, not real beyond
Trend: Double-big lineup creates problems for the Warriors
After occasionally pairing 6-foot-11 centers Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun over the first three games against the Warriors, the Rockets fully committed to the two-center lineup in Monday`s Game 4. Adams and Sengun played 23 minutes together, their most in any game this season, and the Rockets outscored the Warriors by 18 points during that time.
Warriors coach Steve Kerr`s only apparent counter in Game 4 was to intentionally foul Adams, a player who shot just 46% from the free-throw line in the regular season. Instead of letting the Warriors exploit Adams at the line as in Game 3, Houston coach Ime Udoka removed him from the game, only bringing him back for the final two minutes when intentional fouls away from the ball are penalized more severely.
We can expect to see more of Adams and Sengun together in Wednesday`s Game 5, but the same level of Rockets dominance is unlikely. While Houston has consistently overwhelmed Golden State on the offensive boards with Adams and Sengun on the court (rebounding over half their own misses when both are playing), Monday`s scoring differential was heavily influenced by abnormal shooting percentages. The Rockets made an incredible 7 of 9 three-pointers (78%) with the double-big lineup, while the Warriors shot poorly (6 of 23, 26%) against Houston`s zone defense.
From Golden State`s perspective, future matchups might be a greater concern. Houston using Adams and Sengun together is partly a response to the struggles of their more traditional lineups; Jalen Green has scored in double figures in only one of four games (which, not coincidentally, was Houston`s only win). Udoka had previously played his two centers together for more than a single possession only once before March.
Should both Golden State and Minnesota advance, the Timberwolves` combination of Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid offers similar size advantages with better floor spacing and more experience playing together. And if Golden State reaches the conference finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder`s starting frontcourt of Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren could exploit Golden State`s lack of size and defensive rebounding deficiencies for longer stretches than the Rockets have managed.
Verdict: Not real this series, real beyond
Trend: Key players logging significant minutes, including Jokic
JJ Redick isn`t the only coach hesitant to trust his bench in the first round. With Russell Westbrook absent for Saturday`s Game 4, Nuggets interim coach David Adelman played his starters at least 42 minutes. Both Nikola Jokic and Christian Braun remained on the court for the entire second half – the second time Jokic has done so in this series, matching the total number of times he did so during the Nuggets` entire 2023 championship run.
More broadly, eight players are currently averaging at least 40 minutes per game in the first round, with four Nuggets players (Braun, Gordon, Jokic, and Jamal Murray) averaging 39.1 minutes or more. In an era where star players` minutes are meticulously managed, this stands out. First-round playing time reached a low point between 2016 and 2020, when only 10 total series featured a player averaging 40-plus minutes. (LeBron James did it three times, Paul George three times, Giannis Antetokounmpo twice, and two others once each.)
However, we`ve seen an increase recently. In the 2024 first round, 14 players averaged 40 minutes or more, the highest number in a decade. To some extent, limiting minutes during the regular season is intended precisely to allow players to increase their workload in the playoffs when it matters most. Still, maintaining a 40-plus minute average over an extended playoff run presents a significant challenge.
Since 2018, only three players who averaged over 40 minutes in the first round have seen their teams reach the NBA Finals: Devin Booker with the 2021 Phoenix Suns, Jayson Tatum with the 2022 Boston Celtics, and Luka Doncic with last year`s Dallas Mavericks. All three teams lost in the Finals. The last eventual champion whose player averaged at least 40 minutes in the first round was LeBron James in 2016.
This trend bodes well for the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers, who didn`t need to push their stars` minutes in comfortable sweep victories. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led Oklahoma City with 35 minutes per game, while no Cleveland player averaged more than 31.3 minutes.
Verdict: Real, but potentially concerning
Trend: Boston`s 3-point barrage has cooled off
After setting an NBA record by attempting 48 three-pointers per game in the regular season, the Celtics rank only 11th among the 16 playoff teams in the first round, averaging 33 attempts per game against the Orlando Magic.
Utilizing their mobile big men and physically strong guards, the Magic have been comfortable switching on pick-and-rolls and defending players one-on-one, effectively keeping their help defenders from leaving dangerous Boston shooters.
According to GeniusIQ tracking on NBA advanced stats, the Celtics still rank fifth in pull-up 3-point attempts (12.5 per game). However, their catch-and-shoot attempts have dropped significantly to 20 per game (down from 30.7 in the regular season), tied for the third-lowest among playoff teams.
Although Orlando`s weak offense couldn`t capitalize, could their defensive strategy against the Celtics serve as a blueprint for future opponents? Yes and no. The drawback of Orlando`s approach is that they fouled Boston frequently – the Magic were one of five teams averaging at least 20 fouls during the regular season. Boston`s 26.3 free throw attempts per game now lead all playoff teams, a stark contrast to their league-low 19.1 free throw attempts per game in the regular season.
Consequently, limiting three-pointers hasn`t crippled Boston`s offense; they still score at the sixth-highest rate per possession. Considering Orlando had the NBA`s second-best defensive rating in the regular season, this is a respectable offensive output. Furthermore, not every team possesses the personnel to switch pick-and-rolls as frequently (46% of the time, per GeniusIQ) without creating unfavorable mismatches.
The New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston`s most likely remaining opponents, have smaller guards who might struggle defending Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jayson Tatum one-on-one. The Knicks would also be reluctant to leave Karl-Anthony Towns isolated against Brown or Tatum.
The team best equipped to replicate the Magic`s defensive scheme is the only team with a better defensive rating this season: the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, Oklahoma City employs the opposite strategy. Thunder opponents attempted three-pointers at the league`s highest rate, including 109 attempts for Boston across their two regular-season meetings. But the Celtics made only 27% of those threes as Oklahoma City swept the season series.
Verdict: Not real
Trend: OKC concerned with SGA`s slow start
After scoring 18 points in a win over San Antonio on October 30, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 20 or more points in each of the remaining 75 regular-season games. Only Wilt Chamberlain (80 games, twice) and Oscar Robertson (76) have achieved longer single-season streaks. In this context, it was notable that the MVP front-runner was relatively quiet over the first three games of the Thunder`s first-round sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies.
Gilgeous-Alexander finished with just 15 points in 23 minutes during Oklahoma City`s dominant 51-point win in Game 1. While he scored 58 points over the next two games, this came on an uncharacteristically poor 20-of-55 (36%) shooting. It wasn`t until Game 4 that Gilgeous-Alexander scored efficiently, putting up 38 points on 13-of-24 shooting and hitting 11 free throws.
Memphis guard Scotty Pippen Jr. deserves credit for his defense on Gilgeous-Alexander. On 25 shots taken with Pippen as the nearest defender, Gilgeous-Alexander`s quantified shot probability (qSP) – the expected effective field goal percentage based on shot type, location, and defender distance – was just 49.5%, compared to his 54% average during the regular season, according to GeniusIQ.
On all other shots, Gilgeous-Alexander`s qSP was 54%, matching his regular-season average. Yet, his actual shooting percentage on those attempts was an effective 45%.
Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander shot 16-of-53 (30%) on shots outside the paint in the first round. He typically hits these shots at a 43% rate during the regular season. Despite this dip, there seems to be no significant reason for concern as the Thunder look ahead to the second round and beyond.
Verdict: Not real