The final major golf championship of the year is upon us. Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland is once again hosting the Open Championship, just as it did memorably in 2019. This classic links course is anticipated to provide an excellent stage for four rounds of intense competition, culminating in the crowning of the champion golfer.
This year`s previous majors have already delivered compelling storylines. World number two Rory McIlroy achieved a career grand slam with his victory at the Masters, while the world`s top-ranked player, Scottie Scheffler, added another major title by winning the PGA Championship. Adding to the excitement, veteran J.J. Spaun surprised many last month by outplaying the field at Oakmont to secure his first major triumph at the U.S. Open.
All three of these major champions are competing in the Open this week, alongside other elite players from around the globe, all aiming to make their mark on this major season.
Here is our ranking of the 25 golfers we believe are most likely to lift the coveted Claret Jug on Sunday.
1. Scottie Scheffler
Predicting Scottie Scheffler`s performance in a major is almost redundant; he consistently possesses the ability to simply overpower the competition in a way unique to him. The real intrigue lies in watching how this three-time major winner adapts his dominant stateside game to the unique challenges of links golf abroad. He recently finished tied for eighth at the Scottish Open. His track record at the Open Championship has been his most varied among the majors. In four starts, his best finishes are a tie for seventh last year and a tie for eighth in his 2021 debut, with two finishes outside the top 20 in between. As a testament to his overall excellence, since 2021 (when he began playing all four majors), the Open is the only major where he has finished outside the top 20 more than once in 19 appearances. Despite this relative inconsistency *for him*, it`s highly probable that the world`s top player will be a significant factor this week.
Scottie Scheffler is seeking his first Open Championship title.
2. Jon Rahm
Perhaps no player has shown more consistent positive momentum throughout this year than Jon Rahm. Beyond his numerous top-10 results on the LIV Tour, his performances in the year`s most significant events are particularly noteworthy. Since tying for seventh at last year`s Open at Royal Troon, Rahm has found a strong rhythm. He finished 14th at the Masters and was a genuine contender heading into the back nine of the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Although he couldn`t catch Scheffler, his determined fight there and his tie for seventh at Oakmont felt distinctly Rahm-like. Few golfers possess his level of competitive fire. Given his already impressive standing in European golf history, it seems fitting that a Claret Jug should be part of his resume. Based on his recent form, Portrush should offer him an excellent opportunity to achieve just that.
3. Rory McIlroy
And so, we return. The Open is back in Rory McIlroy`s homeland, and he is expected – *strongly* expected – to be in contention for his sixth major championship. In 2019, expectations were similarly high, only for McIlroy to hit his opening tee shot out of bounds and subsequently miss the cut – an anticlimactic moment for a highly anticipated week. Much has changed since then: McIlroy has won a green jacket, completing his career grand slam. However, his performance has been somewhat muted since that historic win in April. He has candidly discussed challenges with motivation, yet acknowledges that playing this specific tournament in Northern Ireland should ignite something special within him. Perhaps that spark arrived early; at the Scottish Open last week, McIlroy displayed some of his best golf since the Masters, posting rounds of 68, 65, 66, and 68 to finish tied for second.
4. Bryson DeChambeau
Just as there`s ongoing fascination with Bryson DeChambeau`s strategic approach to Augusta National each year, his ability – or inability – to adapt to links golf is always captivating. In seven previous Open appearances, DeChambeau has secured only one top-10 finish (at Royal Liverpool in 2022) and has missed the cut three times, including last year at Royal Troon. Anything feels possible for the two-time U.S. Open champion this week. You could credibly suggest DeChambeau might excel with his approach play and capitalize on his short game for a commanding win at Portrush. Equally, you could envision him struggling to keep the ball in the fairway under challenging conditions and missing the cut. While this style of golf doesn`t inherently suit his game, watching him attempt to master it is compelling.
5. Xander Schauffele
The defending champion is ranked at number five primarily because he has had a relatively quiet year since winning two major championships last season. Following a rib injury at the start of the year, Schauffele took time off and has since been working to regain his peak form. He has recorded only one top-10 finish this season. While his approach play remains strong (ranking in the top 10 in strokes gained on tour), it has had to compensate for an unusually weak year in driving, short game, and putting. One of Schauffele`s greatest assets, his consistent composure, was crucial in his comeback victory at Troon last year. That quality is likely to be essential again this week at Portrush.
6. Shane Lowry
Perhaps this ranking is generous for Shane Lowry, but in 2019, he harnessed the emotional energy of playing in a region he knows intimately to secure a dominant six-shot victory. The support Lowry will receive from the home crowds at a venue where he has previously triumphed should undoubtedly boost his prospects this week. Like McIlroy, he will be a sentimental favorite. Although his form in majors this year has been inconsistent (two missed cuts and a tie for 42nd at the Masters), he does have four top-10 finishes on the regular tour, and it would not be surprising to see him perform strongly at Portrush once again.
Shane Lowry holding the Claret Jug after his 2019 Open Championship win at Royal Portrush.
7. Viktor Hovland
Assessing how Viktor Hovland will perform at a major championship these days feels like a complete unknown. Despite discussing struggles with his swing and the pursuit of perfect feel in press conferences, he might suddenly contend, as he did at Oakmont last month where he finished third and had a legitimate chance to win on the back nine. Earlier this year, Hovland missed three consecutive cuts, only to win the Valspar Championship shortly thereafter. Last year, he finished third at the PGA Championship but missed the cut in the other three majors, including the Open. Similar to DeChambeau, Hovland possesses the talent to win this week, but the difference between his potential best and worst performances is as wide as almost anyone near the top of this list.
8. Collin Morikawa
Few players globally are hitting the ball as effectively as Collin Morikawa this season. His ball-striking remains exceptionally elite. Yet, despite having four top-10 finishes this year, he hasn`t been able to secure a victory since the 2023 Zozo Championship. Morikawa knows how to win this tournament, having done so in 2021 at Royal St. George`s. While his game has arguably improved since then, something seems to be preventing him from putting together four consistently strong rounds in the sport`s biggest events. This year, he finished 14th at the Masters but followed that with a tie for 50th at the PGA Championship and a tie for 23rd at the U.S. Open. In theory, on a course like Portrush, Morikawa`s precise iron play and accuracy off the tee should put him in a strong position. However, his putting performance (currently ranked 99th on tour this season) will likely dictate how high he can climb the leaderboard.
9. Ludvig Åberg
Immediately following Ludvig Åberg`s victory at this year`s Genesis Invitational, he was widely considered one of the most exciting talents in the sport. Since then, Aberg has experienced a slight dip in form, missing four cuts (including at both the PGA and U.S. Open) and recording only one additional top-10 finish (seventh place at the Masters). However, Aberg is quietly regaining momentum. He seemed to find his rhythm at the Scottish Open last week, finishing tied for eighth. It wouldn`t be a surprise at all to see him enter the conversation at Portrush this week and remain a factor through Sunday.
10. Tommy Fleetwood
Could this finally be the week for Tommy Fleetwood? He has come incredibly close to winning not only a major in recent years but also securing any victory outside of the DP World Tour. Fleetwood`s game, characterized by exceptional ball-striking, appears well-suited for an Open Championship, and this year`s venue, Portrush, should particularly fit his style. Although he missed the cut at Troon last year, he finished inside the top 10 in his two Open appearances prior to that.
11. Tyrrell Hatton
Perhaps Tyrrell Hatton should be ranked slightly higher. His performance at Oakmont, where he tied for fourth, was truly impressive – marking his best-ever finish in a major. He seems to be steadily becoming a more consistent factor on major championship weekends, with two top-15 finishes at Augusta in the past two years. However, it`s difficult to overlook the fact that Hatton`s demeanor, and how he reacts to unfortunate shots or bad luck, will be severely tested this week by a links setup like Portrush. Regardless, watching him navigate the course promises to be entertaining.
12. Robert MacIntyre
Robert MacIntyre delivered a thoroughly impressive performance at Oakmont, battling challenging conditions and Sunday`s delay to card a round of 2 under par. This briefly gave him the clubhouse lead and nearly put him into a playoff with Spaun. MacIntyre is exceptionally comfortable playing in this region and on links courses. While he missed the cut at the Scottish Open last week, his game is certainly capable of contending at Portrush this week.
13. Russell Henley
Whenever a course prioritizes precise ball-striking and accuracy over raw driving distance, Russell Henley tends to rise to the top, and for good reason. He ranks among the top 10 players in strokes gained and has recorded eight top-10 finishes, including one victory, this season. In terms of majors, Henley has struggled this year, missing the cut at both the Masters and the PGA Championship. His top-10 finish at Oakmont felt more reflective of his capabilities, and he arrives at Portrush following a fifth-place finish at Troon last year.
14. Brooks Koepka
It`s challenging to accurately assess Brooks Koepka`s current form. While he showed flashes of his peak game at Oakmont and openly discussed having felt lost with his swing for a period, he withdrew from the subsequent LIV event and finished tied for 32nd in the most recent one. If conditions at Portrush become particularly difficult this week, Koepka is the type of player who could thrive. However, it`s also possible his game isn`t quite sharp enough at this moment to genuinely contend.
15. Joaquín Niemann
Frankly, Joaquín Niemann arguably deserves a higher ranking on this list. However, the reality is that despite his continued success on the LIV tour (with four wins this season), his performances in golf`s biggest events remain somewhat underwhelming. Even this year, after finally achieving his first top-10 finish in a major at the PGA Championship, Niemann followed it up with a missed cut at Oakmont.
16. Justin Thomas
Justin Thomas and the Open Championship have not historically been a compatible pairing. In eight previous appearances at this event, Thomas has missed three cuts and has never finished inside the top 10. However, offering a glimmer of optimism, Thomas`s best Open performance came at Portrush in 2019. That week, he played all four rounds at even par or better. He will be hoping to replicate that level of play on the Dunluce course this week.
Justin Thomas finished tied for 22nd at the recent Scottish Open.
17. Matt Fitzpatrick
It`s difficult to know what to expect from Matt Fitzpatrick. He hasn`t won on tour since 2023 and hasn`t been a significant factor in a major since his U.S. Open victory in 2022. However, he has shown signs of improved form leading into this week, with an eighth-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and a fourth-place finish at the Scottish Open last week.
18. Jordan Spieth
Speaking of players whose performance is unpredictable, here is Jordan Spieth. While it`s hard to fully believe he has a winning chance this week, even with his sometimes erratic play, Spieth has secured four top-10 finishes this season and has missed only two cuts. By comparison, last year he had three top-10s but missed seven cuts.
19. Justin Rose
It`s important not to forget that Justin Rose had a legitimate opportunity to win this tournament last year at Troon, ultimately finishing in a tie for second place. Rose`s year has been inconsistent; he forced a playoff with McIlroy at Augusta but has missed three of his last four cuts, including at the PGA and U.S. Opens. Nevertheless, at 44, he has demonstrated his ability to still contend at the highest level, and the Open might represent his best remaining chance to secure a second major championship.
20. Corey Conners
Similar to Henley, Corey Conners` main strength is his exceptional ball-striking, a skill that should translate effectively to a links course like Portrush. While it hasn`t always felt like Conners has elevated his game sufficiently to truly compete for a major title (his best finish being sixth at the 2022 Masters), the Open Championship occasionally produces unexpected champions who simply excel at keeping the ball in play throughout the week, as Brian Harman did in 2022. Conners certainly possesses the game to be that type of winner.
21. J.J. Spaun
Much like Wyndham Clark after his 2023 U.S. Open victory, J.J. Spaun`s career narrative has fundamentally changed. Whether he can follow up his triumph at Oakmont with another strong performance in a major championship remains a significant challenge, particularly as this week marks Spaun`s debut competing in the Open.
22. Ben Griffin
How could Ben Griffin not be included? The 29-year-old has been one of the standout players on tour this season, achieving two victories and accumulating eight top-10 finishes. Griffin hasn`t had much success in previous Open appearances, missing the cut twice, but he is performing at an entirely new level this year.
23. Keegan Bradley
Five top-10 finishes, a top-10 result in a major, and a PGA Tour win – that summarizes Keegan Bradley`s season so far. The discussion about him potentially being a playing captain for the Ryder Cup is already gaining significant traction. While perhaps not strictly necessary, a strong finish at Portrush, or even an improbable victory, would undoubtedly cement his case.
24. Sepp Straka
In a performance pattern that contrasts sharply with Koepka`s, Sepp Straka has been highly successful in regular PGA Tour events but has struggled on the sport`s biggest stages, the majors. Like Griffin, he has two wins this season along with five top-10s, but he has missed the cut at the Masters, the PGA Championship, and the U.S. Open.
25. Hideki Matsuyama
Hideki Matsuyama`s best performance at an Open Championship came in his first appearance back in 2013, where he tied for sixth at Muirfield. Can Matsuyama win? Absolutely. However, it would require a considerable shift in form for a player who has not recorded a top-10 finish this year outside of his victory at The Sentry.
First four out:
- Cameron Smith
- Patrick Reed
- Adam Scott
- Sam Burns