Just shy of a month into the 2025 NBA playoffs, only four teams remain: the Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Minnesota Timberwolves. Each is now just one series away from competing for the NBA Finals title.
In the Eastern Conference, the Indiana Pacers eliminated the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, followed by an upset victory over the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. This marks their second straight appearance in the conference finals. They are set to face the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks advanced by defeating the defending champion Boston Celtics. New York aims to secure its first conference championship since the year 2000.
Out West, the Oklahoma City Thunder swept the Memphis Grizzlies in the opening round before prevailing in a tough seven-game series against the Denver Nuggets. They will meet the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. The Timberwolves reached this stage by overcoming both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors in five games apiece.
With the NBA Finals and the chance to lift the Larry O`Brien Trophy just one series away, our team of NBA experts offers insights into how each of these four hopefuls reached this stage, what the key storylines are surrounding each matchup, and what outcomes might be expected.
Eastern Conference
(3) New York Knicks vs. (4) Indiana Pacers
How did the Pacers get here?
The Pacers have returned to the conference finals for the second consecutive season. Last year`s run was viewed with some skepticism due to injuries affecting opponents, but Indiana has proven its strength this season. Following a slow start where they were 16-18 on January 1st, they have since performed as one of the top teams in the league, boasting a 42-16 record including the postseason. They moved past Milwaukee in the first round before upsetting the 64-win Cavaliers in the second round. Despite facing opponents affected by key injuries, the Pacers efficiently closed out both series in five games. Tyrese Haliburton has been pivotal, hitting crucial shots and leading the offense with exceptional assists, fueling their potent attack and building on the confidence gained from last season`s playoff performances to reach this stage again.
How did the Knicks get here?
New York`s journey to the conference finals has been notable. While they were solid during the regular season, finishing 15-13 after the All-Star break, they struggled against elite competition, particularly the top two teams in their own conference, against whom they were winless in ten games. This marked the first time a No. 3 seed went winless against the conference`s top two since the 1984 playoff format change. However, the Knicks have displayed a resilient attitude, especially in the early rounds against Boston. Key contributions, such as backup center Mitchell Robinson`s strong rebounding presence after missing significant time in the regular season, indicate this revamped roster is finding its rhythm at the opportune moment. This cohesion will be essential as they face a Pacers team that has been playing at a high level for months.
What we`re hearing on the series
Discussions surrounding this series frequently highlight the clash of styles. The team that can dictate the pace and nature of the game is likely to emerge victorious and advance to their first NBA Finals in over two decades. One perspective suggests New York is a top-heavy roster, prioritizing star power acquired through moves, potentially at the expense of depth. Indiana, conversely, is seen as built more holistically, relying on its collective depth to wear down opponents. The Knicks, led by the methodical Jalen Brunson, prefer a slower, half-court battle. The Pacers excel in transition and will aim to maintain a fast pace to exploit New York`s potential fatigue as the series progresses. This has been Indiana`s successful strategy in past playoff runs.
The teams appear fairly matched in key individual matchups. New York has Mikal Bridges to guard Haliburton and OG Anunoby for Pascal Siakam. Karl-Anthony Towns and Myles Turner present comparable options at center. However, a critical factor identified is Andrew Nembhard`s ability to defend Jalen Brunson, which was a challenge in last season`s playoff matchup. Improvements in this area could be decisive for Indiana. Another area of focus is whether Mitchell Robinson can replicate his impactful paint control seen against Boston, or if the Pacers` up-tempo game can neutralize his influence. The bench matchup between Robinson and Thomas Bryant could also favor New York.
Will New York`s starting lineup be able to keep pace with Indiana`s?
Indiana boasts an incredibly effective high-usage starting lineup (Haliburton, Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Siakam, Turner), which has posted stellar net ratings both in the regular season and playoffs. This group is athletic, balanced, and possesses a clear identity, consistently building leads or closing games strongly. In contrast, the Knicks` starting five has struggled with consistency in the playoffs, often falling behind, necessitating late comebacks. While talented, they haven`t always meshed as seamlessly as expected, resulting in a negative net rating in the postseason. This difference in starting unit performance and consistency could give Indiana a crucial edge, as relying on repeated double-digit deficits to mount comebacks becomes increasingly risky at this stage.
Western Conference
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (6) Minnesota Timberwolves
How did the Timberwolves get here?
The Minnesota Timberwolves have reached back-to-back conference finals for the first time in their franchise history, but they approach the matchup against Oklahoma City without a sense of having already achieved their goal. Embracing an underdog mentality, they started the postseason on the road, dominating the Lakers in Game 1 and securing the series in five games. They then faced the Golden State Warriors, benefiting from an opponent injury after Game 1, and controlled the series from Game 4 onwards to win in five games.
Although Minnesota finished the regular season strongly and has impressed in the playoffs, their journey to contender status took time. They overcame a slow start to the season as the roster found its chemistry. Key additions have contributed significantly off the bench and with standout playoff performances. The team`s core remains built around superstar Anthony Edwards, strong defenders Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert, and the veteran leadership of Mike Conley and coach Chris Finch. Edwards, challenged to evolve his decision-making as the primary offensive engine, continues to set the tone with his confident approach, making it clear the team is not satisfied with just reaching the conference finals.
How did the Thunder get here?
Oklahoma City`s decisive Game 7 victory over the Denver Nuggets exemplified their path to this point. Their formula for success relies on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander`s highly efficient scoring, Jalen Williams` versatile support, and a relentless, stifling defense designed to force turnovers and create chaos. This strategy propelled the Thunder to a franchise-record 68 wins in the regular season and an NBA record point differential, averaging plus-12.9 points.
Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to receive his first MVP award soon, largely due to his league-leading 32.7 points per game on impressive true shooting efficiency. While his scoring efficiency has slightly dipped in the postseason, he delivered when it mattered most against Denver. After falling behind 2-1 in the series, Gilgeous-Alexander elevated his game, averaging over 30 points on high efficiency in the final four contests and hitting critical shots to close out crucial games. Jalen Williams also had a strong Game 7, contributing significantly after struggling offensively in the preceding games. As a first-time All-Star this season, his performance at that level will be vital in the Western Conference Finals. Williams thrives in transition, often converting defensive stops into fast-break points. Oklahoma City`s league-leading defense, which forced the most turnovers and scored the most points off turnovers in the regular season, continues to be a primary source of offense in the playoffs.
What we`re hearing on the series
Despite Oklahoma City`s season-long dominance, scouts are anticipating a competitive series against Minnesota. OKC finished with the league`s best record, showcasing versatility on both ends and featuring the likely MVP. However, the Timberwolves, who advanced convincingly through their first two series, are seen as a tough matchup. Minnesota`s size and length across the roster, including their guards and rotation of big men, aligns well with Oklahoma City`s defensive approach, which aims to make games physically demanding. Overcoming a challenge like the Nuggets and Nikola Jokic was seen as a necessary step for this young Thunder team.
A key factor in the series against Denver was the Thunder`s inconsistent offense, particularly their outside shooting. This was notably true for Jalen Williams, whose offensive output fluctuated. The question remains whether Oklahoma City`s supporting players can consistently make shots when needed. While some believe OKC possesses the NBA`s best overall roster, their offensive success often hinges on contributions beyond Gilgeous-Alexander. If they can consistently convert, they could dominate; if not, the series could be a significant challenge.
Will the Wolves win a game of zones?
The Thunder`s sometimes shaky outside shooting led the Denver Nuggets to frequently utilize zone defenses in their series. Data indicates Oklahoma City averaged just 1.04 points per possession against zone defense compared to 1.07 against man-to-man through the first six games. Although the Thunder performed better against the zone in their Game 7 blowout, that game came against a team potentially limited by injury.
Given this, it is highly probable that Minnesota will employ zone defenses, especially after having a week to prepare. During the regular season, the Timberwolves used zone defense against Oklahoma City more than any other opponent, with notable success. In one instance, their zone defense helped them overcome a large fourth-quarter deficit to win in overtime. Against the zone in that final period and overtime, the Thunder managed only seven points on 17 possessions.