The sudden removal of Christian Horner as Red Bull Racing`s team principal sent shockwaves through the motorsport world. After two decades at the helm, Horner was dismissed without an official reason provided by Red Bull in their statement on Wednesday.
Martin Brundle of Sky Sports F1 reported that Horner himself was not given a reason by Red Bull, who appointed Laurent Mekies from the junior Racing Bulls squad as his replacement.
While his mid-season departure was unexpected, several developments over the past 18 months could shed light on the potential causes behind Red Bull`s decision.
Was Red Bull`s Performance Declining?
Following a dominant 2023 season where Max Verstappen secured the drivers` title and Red Bull won 21 of 22 races, the team started 2024 strongly with four wins in the first five rounds. However, starting from the Miami Grand Prix in May 2024, Ferrari and McLaren significantly closed the gap.
Verstappen relied on his early points advantage to hold off Lando Norris for his fourth consecutive drivers` title, but the team`s performance from the latter half of last year has been inconsistent, showing a clear lag behind McLaren this season. The points deficit to the leaders has grown considerably by the halfway point.
Although Horner had previously navigated periods without wins, the rapid decline in performance within the current regulatory era was unusual for F1. While concerning to Red Bull`s leadership, it`s unlikely this season`s results alone led to the dismissal of someone who had just guided the team to four straight drivers` championships.
Issues with the Second Driver
Beyond Verstappen`s performance, the struggles on the other side of the Red Bull garage presented an ongoing challenge for Horner.
His judgment faced criticism when Sergio Perez was reportedly paid off after being dropped at the end of last season, shortly after receiving a contract extension. The situation worsened this year when Liam Lawson was demoted to Racing Bulls after only two races, despite being promoted over the more experienced Yuki Tsunoda earlier.
Tsunoda has generally finished behind both Lawson and his Racing Bulls teammate Isack Hadjar. This isn`t a new issue; previous drivers like Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon, now strong F1 competitors, were quickly moved on in 2019 and 2020 after failing to match Verstappen. However, the performance disparity this season between the two Red Bull cars has been particularly stark.
Whether this is attributed to poor driver selection or fundamental car design issues making it difficult for drivers other than Verstappen, neither scenario reflected well on Horner`s management.
The “Verstappen or Horner” Dynamic?
Red Bull`s increasing reliance on Verstappen`s performance in recent years has given him and his close advisors significant influence. While Verstappen`s relationship with Horner seemed stable, his father, Jos, publicly clashed with Horner early in 2024, calling for his departure.
Although the immediate tension appeared to subside, the extent of the conflict suggested a lasting rift. Max Verstappen has consistently shown strong loyalty to his father.
Recently, speculation about Verstappen`s future intensified after Mercedes boss Toto Wolff confirmed discussions with the Dutchman`s camp (his father and manager Raymond Vermeulen). A theory emerged post-Horner`s sacking that Verstappen`s camp, leveraging the team`s dependency on him, might have pressured the owners to remove Horner by hinting that a change in leadership could make Verstappen more likely to remain.
Verstappen is contracted until 2028, but his contract reportedly includes release clauses. Following Wolff`s comments, Verstappen was non-committal about his future, largely avoiding direct questions on the topic.
Observing Verstappen`s next steps will be key. His decision to stay might suggest a connection to Horner`s exit, while a departure would likely negate that idea.
Lingering Impact of Allegations?
Horner`s standing took a significant hit in February 2024 amid allegations of inappropriate behavior by a female colleague. He denied the claims, survived intense media scrutiny, and was cleared after an internal investigation. An appeal against this decision was later dismissed.
This period coincided with Jos Verstappen`s public feud with Horner, with Jos stating the accusations made Horner`s position untenable.
Horner initially retained support from at least one part of Red Bull`s ownership, but this support appears to have diminished. Sky Sports News reported that Red Bull co-owner Chalerm Yoovidhya, previously a strong ally who supported Horner during the investigations, eventually withdrew his backing.
High-Profile Departures
The period surrounding the allegations also saw several key figures leave Red Bull, which didn`t reflect well on Horner`s leadership, despite personnel changes being common in F1.
The most notable departure was legendary designer Adrian Newey, who had been with Red Bull since its early days. His close relationship with Horner reportedly soured, with the allegations against Horner believed to be a contributing factor in Newey`s decision to leave in May 2024, later joining Aston Martin.
Before Newey, chief designer Rob Marshall left for McLaren in 2023. McLaren`s subsequent rise to become a dominant force in the sport might be partly linked to this move. Most recently, sporting director Jonathan Wheatley departed to lead Sauber, which will become Audi.
While losing staff is normal, the exit of three long-standing, crucial team members in a relatively short period, especially alongside a dip in results, raised concerns.
A Casualty of Red Bull`s Power Struggle?
Significant shifts have occurred within Red Bull`s leadership structure since the death of co-founder Dietrich Mateschitz in October 2022, leading to an apparent power struggle for control of the F1 team.
Horner was central to this struggle, backed by Thailand`s Yoovidhya but reportedly not by Mark Mateschitz, Dietrich`s son who owns 49 percent of the business. Mark Mateschitz has taken a less hands-on role than his father, with Red Bull`s head of sport, Oliver Mintzlaff, becoming more involved.
It was Mintzlaff who issued the statement thanking Horner for his service, confirming the sacking. Horner had wielded considerable authority, but this seemed to lessen after 2022, despite the team`s continued success on track.
Ted Kravitz of Sky Sports F1 suggested that the “Austrian side of the business,” supported by Jos Verstappen, appears to have prevailed in the power struggle. He noted they seemingly convinced Horner`s backers that his continued leadership was untenable, with the precise reasons expected to emerge over time.
Concerns About the 2026 Engine Project?
The sport faces major regulation changes next year, particularly concerning more sustainable engines. Red Bull established its own engine division, Red Bull Powertrains, to develop their first in-house power unit.
Competing immediately with established engine manufacturers like Mercedes and Ferrari is challenging for any newcomer, and the complexity of the new regulations likely exacerbates this difficulty.
Rumours within the F1 paddock suggest Mercedes is currently ahead in 2026 engine development, with some speculation indicating Red Bull is facing difficulties. While this remains unconfirmed gossip, if Red Bull`s leadership received reports of the engine project not progressing smoothly, it could have negatively impacted their view of Horner`s performance.
We may need to wait until pre-season testing in 2026 for clearer signs on whether the powertrain project played a role in these recent events.
Marcus Prine