The second major golf tournament of the year, the 2025 PGA Championship, is scheduled to take place from Thursday through Sunday at Quail Hollow Club. Ahead of the event, our golf experts share their predictions for who will lift the Wanamaker Trophy, while our betting experts highlight potential value picks. Here’s a look at the favorites and key betting insights for the championship.
Expert Predictions
Matt Barrie: Rory McIlroy: I believe certain players hit a dominant stride, and Rory is currently in his. Having achieved the career Grand Slam, he now returns to a course where he has won four times. This is his domain, and he is poised to win again.
Tory Barron: Justin Thomas: Perhaps it`s recent form influencing my view, but JT seems ready to claim his third PGA Championship title. Following his playoff win at the RBC Heritage in April, ending a nearly three-year drought, and a recent runner-up finish at the Truist Championship, he has the confidence (and the putting game) to perform strongly at Quail Hollow – the site of his 2017 Wanamaker Trophy victory. (Note: If Brooks Koepka wins when I don`t pick him, I`m joining LIV).
Michael Collins: Scottie Scheffler: How many times will we underestimate the WORLD #1?! People mistake his calm demeanor for a lack of competitive fire. The competitor in him will be burning. But once again, they’ll see.
Jeff Darlington: Justin Thomas: Something clicked for Thomas in October 2024. He finished tied for 2nd at the Zozo Championship and has ascended back to elite form since. He returns to the location of his first PGA Championship win… and now, he will win again.
Michael Eaves: Rory McIlroy: Finally winning the Masters lifted a huge burden off his shoulders. He could be on the verge of playing the most relaxed golf he has played in nearly a decade, and a free-swinging Rory is formidable. Plus, with four previous wins at Quail Hollow, he OWNS that course. Who’s ready for some Grand Slam talk?
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Rory McIlroy: Sometimes if a pick seems too obvious, the best thing is just to make it. He put the Masters/Grand Slam pressure behind him and has been the best golfer in the world in 2025. Add in a course he has won at four times that favors distance, and he`s the pick.
Andy North: Shane Lowry: He has been playing very well, he drives the ball effectively, and hits excellent iron shots.
Mark Schlabach: Bryson DeChambeau: If the winner requires length off the tee, solid long-iron play, and consistent putting, I choose Bryson. He will want to prove that his less-than-stellar Sunday performance at the Masters was an anomaly, and he’s coming off a victory in Korea in the LIV Golf League. He finished in the top six in four of the past five majors, including runner-up at the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club. He’ll get to add a Wanamaker Trophy to his two U.S. Open trophies.
Marty Smith: Rory McIlroy: He enters the PGA Championship having already won the two most prestigious tournaments played this year — the Players Championship and the Masters Tournament. Fourteen years of constant questions and constant pressure are gone. Confidence in every aspect of his game and with every club. Mental, emotional, spiritual, physical freedom.
And now he returns to Quail Hollow, a site where he holds the lowest scoring average in PGA Tour history among players with at least 20 rounds. Oh, and he has won at Quail four times.
Curtis Strange: Rory McIlroy over Scottie by 1. I always support the Masters Champion at the PGA so we can discuss the Grand Slam this year.
Paolo Uggetti: Rory McIlroy: It feels too predictable given Rory’s performance and recent history at Quail Hollow to pick him as this week’s winner, but I cannot convince myself otherwise. Perhaps we are overly focused on the moment – he just showed us how difficult it is to win one major, let alone two in a row – but nothing about this week`s setup contradicts his potential, considering he has clearly been playing the best golf in the world this year.
Scott Van Pelt: Bryson DeChambeau: Quail Hollow is a large course, as they say. This week it’s also a very wet golf course. DeChambeau’s length advantage will be amplified this week, and I believe he will win.
Betting Insights
Who is your pick to win?
| Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
| Rory McIlroy | +475 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +775 |
Tyler Fulghum, ESPN BET Live host: Xander Schauffele (+2000). It’s truly difficult to avoid picking McIlroy or Scheffler, but the +500 price (or worse) on both golfers is quite high. If I’m looking beyond those top two, I would consider Schauffele. Schauffele has the disciplined and well-rounded game type to excel at a tournament like this, where distances are long and competition is strong.
David Gordon, ESPN Research: Shane Lowry (+4500). There’s a case to be made that Lowry should be closer to the top of the second tier of players, yet his odds don’t fully reflect it. If it’s not Rory or Xander, I’ll choose the player currently third in strokes gained: tee to green with top-six finishes in two of the past four PGA Championships.
Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst: Rory McIlroy (+475). I know he just won the Masters, but Quail Hollow is a different story; it’s his kingdom. The course suits his strengths – powerful drives and high long irons – which is why McIlroy has won here four times. He knows every contour of the course, and his playing style is perfectly matched for this layout. It’s a modest price, but when McIlroy is at Quail, he’s defending his throne.
Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?
Tyler Fulghum: Patrick Reed (+550). Aside from Bryson DeChambeau, LIV golfers are mostly out of sight and mind. That offers value on these names in the majors, and the other LIV golfer who has performed relatively well in majors since moving to LIV is Reed. He secured a third-place finish at Augusta in April and finished T2 in 2017 when the PGA was last held at Quail Hollow.
David Gordon: Bryson DeChambeau (+140). DeChambeau has more top-five finishes (three) than any other player in PGA Championships since 2020. His six top-five finishes in majors since 2020 have all occurred at different venues, demonstrating his ability to contend regardless of course style. Length off the tee with shorter rough has benefited recent winners at Quail Hollow (like McIlroy and Wyndham Clark), and while I think Bryson is a great outright top-five pick, I’m taking the safer option with a top-10 bet.
Pamela Maldonado: Jon Rahm (+190). Rahm hits long off the tee, is precise with his long irons, and doesn’t shy away from a demanding course. Quail Hollow is built for players who can power through long par 4s and handle the pressure of the Green Mile, two qualities Rahm possesses in abundance. Even on an off day, Rahm’s baseline performance can exceed most players’ best. Even when his putting is cold, he’s still a threat because his approach play creates so many good opportunities.
What is your favorite Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy bet?
Tyler Fulghum: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200). It’s challenging to find an attractive plus-money bet associated with McIlroy’s name, but I will take this one. McIlroy isn’t typically a quick starter in majors, but this is a course he dominates. Fresh off the win at Augusta, he could start fast, free, and easy here.
David Gordon: McIlroy over Scheffler: tournament matchup (-110). Pam and Tyler have already summarized it best regarding McIlroy. While it feels daunting to bet against a player who just matched the PGA Tour’s 72-hole scoring record in his last start, McIlroy holds the advantage in course knowledge, length, and putting.
Pamela Maldonado: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200). The hardest part is done. He completed the career slam. McIlroy arrives at Quail Hollow grounded, composed, and in control. Golf is as much mental as it is physical, and he has clarity and confidence. If he simply plays his natural game without pushing too hard, given his comfort level with the course, McIlroy’s focus will be sharp, and his game will be systematic.
Who are your favorite long shots/value bets (100-1 or longer)?
Tyler Fulghum: Tony Finau (+12500). There’s really nothing about Finau’s current form that suggests he will contend at this event, except for his distance off the tee. The price, however, is very appealing for a player of Finau’s talent level, and the PGA Championship, unlike the other three majors, is the one most likely to produce an unexpected first-time winner.
David Gordon: Denny McCarthy (+17500). Tied for sixth at Quail Hollow last year and T-8 the year before, McCarthy is one of only three players with eight rounds of par or better over the past two years at this course (the others are Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood). McCarthy’s lack of distance off the tee is a concern, but he clearly compensates elsewhere when he comes to Quail. His best finish of the season is T-5 at Torrey Pines, one of the longest courses on tour all season, and I’ll take a chance on that hot putter continuing.
Pamela Maldonado: Keith Mitchell (+11000). His recent performance is noteworthy. Over his past four starts, Mitchell has posted five consecutive top-20 finishes, including T-7 at Truist last week, showing a strong upward trend of consistency. His ball striking has been solid, while he’s been gaining strokes tee-to-green. He does have two top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow, so +320 for a top-20 seems more reasonable, with a small bet on +11000 for some excitement.
Are there any other bets that stand out?
David Gordon: Corey Conners to finish as low Canadian (+165). Conners has cashed in this market in four of the past five majors – the only exception being last year’s Open Championship – and in six of the past eight majors, winning the low Canadian honor twice at the PGA Championship during that period. His five top-10 finishes on tour this season are surpassed only by Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. He also finished T-13 and T-8 in the past two years at Quail Hollow.
Pamela Maldonado: Justin Thomas (-120) vs. Xander Schauffele. Thomas knows how to win here, and Schauffele, while possessing the skills to contend, just doesn’t measure up in his approach game. Thomas’ iron play is stronger, giving him an edge on a course that rewards precise iron shots. In a comparison of ball striking, JT’s consistency with his tee-to-green game makes the difference.