As the 2024-25 NBA regular season nears its end, teams are shifting focus to the playoffs, while others are already planning for the draft lottery. The NBA regular-season awards are also approaching, with the MVP race in the Western Conference being the most talked about. It appears there are no clear frontrunners for any major award, with both Defensive Player of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year categories being highly competitive.
NBA insiders Zach Kram, Tim MacMahon, Chris Herring, Jamal Collier, and Tim Bontemps delve into the biggest questions surrounding the league`s regular-season awards and offer their predictions.
MVP Frontrunners: Jokic vs. Gilgeous-Alexander
Zach Kram: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on track to become only the 10th player in NBA history to win the scoring title while leading his team to the best record in the league. Historically, eight of the previous nine players with this achievement won MVP, with Michael Jordan in 1996-97 being the only exception. Furthermore, Gilgeous-Alexander has surpassed Nikola Jokic in advanced stats, even those that consider Jokic`s significant on/off impact. Metrics like estimated plus-minus and LEBRON suggest SGA has been slightly more valuable this season.
Tim MacMahon: Both Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander have compelling MVP cases. However, if it`s a close call, I would lean towards Gilgeous-Alexander, who is yet to win the award, unlike the three-time MVP Jokic. Gilgeous-Alexander`s team also holds a substantial lead in the Western Conference standings. Leading the league in scoring by a significant margin and boasting an impressive plus/minus, it feels like Gilgeous-Alexander`s time.
Chris Herring: Gilgeous-Alexander`s dominant season, including multiple 50-point games and his team`s top position in the West, makes him a traditional MVP choice. On the other hand, Jokic is playing exceptionally well, with three MVPs and an NBA title already. While both players are incredibly valuable to their teams, I would still favor Gilgeous-Alexander for the MVP this season.
Tim Bontemps: The MVP award often isn`t about who “deserves it more,” and this year is no different. Both players are highly deserving and have had outstanding seasons. The difficulty in choosing stems from the strength of both candidates` arguments.
Jamal Collier: SGA and the Oklahoma City Thunder have been dominant throughout the season, leading a competitive Western Conference. Gilgeous-Alexander is poised to win the scoring title and ranks high in advanced metrics. He has been the MVP favorite for a while, and this season feels like his coronation.
DPOY Race: Wide Open After Wembanyama`s Absence
MacMahon: Luguentz Dort is the defensive anchor for the league`s top-ranked defense. In a season without a clear DPOY favorite, Dort is my pick. While his traditional stats (steals and blocks) aren`t eye-popping, a Thunder team poll would unanimously vote for Dort. His defensive intensity and ability to guard the toughest assignments set the tone for Oklahoma City`s defense, which has limited opponents to very few 30-point games. Elite scorers avoid isolating Dort due to his exceptional isolation defense.
Bontemps: The DPOY race is very open this year. Evan Mobley and Jaren Jackson Jr. are contenders. Draymond Green and Ivica Zubac could also be in the mix. It`s the most wide-open DPOY race in recent memory, and the outcome is uncertain.
Kram: The top defensive teams like the Thunder, Clippers, Magic, Rockets, and Celtics are effective due to collective effort and coaching rather than a single dominant defender. In the absence of a clear favorite, Dort could win, representing the Thunder`s defensive dominance, similar to Marcus Smart`s win in 2021-22. However, big men usually win DPOY, making Mobley and Green leading candidates.
Herring: I lean towards Draymond Green for DPOY. His defensive IQ and effort have been crucial for a Warriors team needing defensive strength. Opponents` shooting percentage around the basket decreases significantly when Green defends. At 35, averaging over a steal and a block per game, he could be the oldest DPOY winner. The distributed defensive talent on OKC might hinder any single Thunder player`s chances, benefiting Green.
Collier: It`s unfortunate Wemby might not be recognized for his defensive impact in his early career. His presence alone alters opponents` shot selection. With him out, the DPOY race lacks a clear leader. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Evan Mobley are strong contenders, especially with potentially fewer award winners from the Cavaliers roster.
Most Improved Player: Pathway to Superstardom?
Herring: Cade Cunningham is arguably already a star, averaging impressive stats last season. Considering him for Most Improved feels unusual. The trend of choosing players already averaging 20+ points is questionable. I prefer the MIP award to recognize players who make a significant leap from obscurity to being legitimately good, rather than from stardom to superstardom.
Collier: Cunningham shouldn`t be considered for MIP, nor should Amen Thompson, a high draft pick in his second year. Tyler Herro has a higher upside than previously projected and was a deserving All-Star this year, carrying the Heat while Butler was out.
Bontemps: Cunningham and Evan Mobley are both strong MIP candidates. Cunningham has led the Pistons to their best season in a while and earned All-Star consideration. Mobley has also improved significantly, becoming an All-Star and a versatile big man.
Kram: Mobley`s offensive improvements combined with his defensive excellence give him the highest two-way potential among MIP candidates. Concerns about his stagnation last year seem unfounded now, as he became an All-Star and should remain one for years.
MacMahon: Cunningham has proven he can lead a winning team. With better coaching and veteran additions, he has room to operate and is playing at a superstar trajectory, averaging impressive points and assists for a 23-year-old.
Sixth Man of the Year: Future All-Stars?
Bontemps: Payton Pritchard of the Celtics is likely to win Sixth Man, but none of the top candidates this year are likely future All-Stars.
Kram: Agree with Bontemps; Pritchard, Malik Beasley, and Ty Jerome are unlikely future All-Stars. Russell Westbrook, though not a top candidate, could be considered and might receive an honorary All-Star spot in his final season, similar to Nowitzki and Wade.
MacMahon: Amen Thompson of the Rockets would have been a good answer, but he became a starter mid-season. No rising future All-Stars among current Sixth Man candidates.
Herring: Pritchard will likely win Sixth Man. However, Naz Reid, a previous winner, could be a future All-Star. He`s versatile, efficient, and performs well with starter minutes, averaging impressive stats in games he started. In a bigger role, he could become an All-Star someday.
Collier: People in Minnesota rave about Naz Reid. While unlikely to win again this year, Reid`s importance to the Timberwolves ecosystem is growing, and he could potentially become an All-Star alongside Anthony Edwards.
65-Game Rule: Tweak or Eliminate?
Herring: Tweak or eliminate. Never liked the rule, especially after hearing players like Haliburton admit to playing through discomfort for award eligibility. The fine print, which can exclude players like DiVincenzo despite playing many games, is also problematic.
Kram: Tweak, especially for All-Defensive and All-NBA teams. Defensive specialists often don`t play enough minutes to qualify. Stars can provide more value in fewer games than lesser players in more games. All-Rookie teams already disregard the rule; All-Defense and All-NBA should too.
MacMahon: Keep it but drop the minutes limit, especially for All-Defensive teams. The league needs to incentivize stars to play more often in the modern NBA.
Bontemps: Tweak or eliminate. Never favored it; it hasn`t significantly changed voting as voters rarely picked players below 65 games anyway. Trust voters to make informed decisions.
Collier: Tweak or eliminate. Never been a fan; it addressed a non-existent issue.