Even with the NBA Finals nearing completion, the trade period is already commencing. This past Sunday, a significant transaction occurred: the Memphis Grizzlies sent guard Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic in exchange for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, four first-round draft selections, and a future pick swap. This trade initiated what Brian Windhorst suggests might be a quicker-than-usual offseason trade market. Kevin Durant of the Phoenix Suns is among the prominent players frequently mentioned in trade speculation and could be another significant acquisition soon. As we anticipate further deals, let`s review the evaluations of the latest trade.
Analysis of the Desmond Bane Trade to Orlando
Orlando Magic get:
- G Desmond Bane
Memphis Grizzlies get:
- G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
- G Cole Anthony
- 2025 first-round pick
- 2026 first-round pick (swap rights from Phoenix or Washington)
- 2028 first-round pick
- 2029 first-round pick swap
- 2030 first-round pick
Orlando Magic Grade: C+
This surprising start to the NBA`s trade period resembles the New York Knicks` acquisition of Mikal Bridges just before last year`s draft, for which they also surrendered five first-round selections and a pick swap. Similar to that deal, the Magic paid a substantial price in draft assets for a player, Desmond Bane, who has not yet achieved All-Star status and may not in the future. Considering this, the Bane trade serves as an interesting point of comparison to the Bridges transaction. From an external viewpoint, the Bridges deal now looks like an overpayment a year later. While Bridges eventually overcame early shooting struggles to offer the secondary offense the Knicks anticipated, he didn`t prove to be a significant defensive presence.
New York`s uncertainty regarding the championship readiness of the core they built, including the subsequent Karl-Anthony Towns trade, undoubtedly contributed to their decision to dismiss coach Tom Thibodeau. Yet, for a team like the Magic, the Knicks reaching the Eastern Conference finals for the first time in 25 years might appear as a significant success.
Orlando`s own lengthy dry spell includes its most recent conference finals appearance 15 years ago and an NBA Finals loss the year prior. Their last playoff series victory was in 2010 before falling to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals, a drought that now spans multiple rebuilds. Following a disappointing season that concluded with a five-game first-round exit against the Celtics, Orlando is clearly eager to reverse this trend.
The Magic were also likely influenced by the sudden shift in power dynamics at the top of the Eastern Conference. While the Indiana Pacers have impressed in the NBA Finals and could potentially win the championship, they don`t inspire the same level of fear in contenders that a fully healthy Boston team might have before Jayson Tatum`s Achilles injury. With the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers exiting in the second round, raising questions about their playoff strength, there`s an opportunity for an unexpected East contender to emerge next year.
The critical question, then, is whether Bane possesses the capability to elevate Orlando into that competitive mix. He addresses numerous needs for the Magic. Bane, who will turn 27 shortly, aligns well with the timeline of Orlando`s core players: Paolo Banchero (22), Jalen Suggs (24), and Franz Wagner (23). This makes him a better fit than most players of similar caliber Orlando could realistically acquire.
Bane`s exceptional shooting is expected to be a significant boost for the Magic, who finished last season shooting a league-worst 32% from 3-point range and saw that percentage inexplicably drop further in the playoffs. It was almost magical that Orlando remained competitive against the Celtics despite shooting just 26% from deep. Bane`s average of 2.4 made 3-pointers per game this season is higher than any Magic player has achieved since the 2019-20 season, just before the team initiated its most recent teardown. However, it`s also the lowest average for Bane since his rookie year.
Furthermore, Bane`s growth as a secondary ball-screen playmaker complements Banchero, Suggs, and Wagner well. All three are effective with the ball but aren`t primary full-time ball handlers. Benefiting partly from Memphis`s superior spacing, Bane averaged more points per direct chance out of ball screens (.988) than any Orlando player who ran at least 250 such plays last season, according to tracking data. Wagner was the only high-usage Magic player to exceed 0.92 points per chance as a ball handler.
Before the remainder of the offseason unfolds, I would likely rank Orlando fourth in my initial Eastern Conference projections for the 2025-26 season, behind Cleveland, Indiana, and New York, but ahead of Boston, anticipating the Celtics might shed a core player due to financial constraints.
For the Magic to make a deep playoff run, Jalen Suggs` health will be crucial after he missed all but one game post-January 3rd due to a cartilage issue requiring season-ending surgery. It will also likely necessitate further development from Banchero and Wagner. Banchero needs to demonstrate improved efficiency with increased offensive support, and Wagner must elevate his 3-point shooting closer to the league average to provide adequate floor spacing.
Internal improvement is vital for Orlando`s postseason potential because this trade likely represents the team`s last significant acquisition via trade for some time. The Magic are already facing the possibility of luxury tax payments in the 2025-26 season and will need to decline team options on at least four players (Gary Harris, Caleb Houstan, Cory Joseph, and Moritz Wagner) to complete this trade without triggering a hard cap due to salary aggregation.
Orlando`s salary cap challenges will intensify in 2026-27 when Banchero`s next contract begins. Having made the All-Star team at age 21, the former top pick is expected to receive a maximum extension. This could increase to 30% of the salary cap if he earns All-NBA honors next season. Regardless, this would mean the Magic would have four players earning at least $32.4 million in 2026-27, forcing difficult roster decisions.
Further down the line, Orlando could benefit financially from the salary cap potentially rising the maximum 10% annually as the NBA`s new national TV deals are phased in. The Magic`s current stars have smaller year-to-year salary increases, and Suggs` extension starts at its highest point before decreasing. This will be particularly important if Orlando reaches the repeater tax by 2028-29, the final year of Bane`s current contract.
Ultimately, the financial implications are the primary reason for skepticism regarding the Magic surrendering nearly all their tradable first-round picks. (Orlando did keep this year`s No. 25 pick, acquired from the Denver Nuggets in the Aaron Gordon trade). The Knicks gave up five first-rounders for Bridges partly because he was on a highly favorable contract, totaling $48.2 million over that season and the next. That trade might also have influenced Jalen Brunson`s willingness to sign a below-market extension last summer.
Bane`s contract, which averages $40.8 million over the next four seasons with an additional potential $1.35 million average bonus for winning a championship, is certainly reasonable but does not represent significant value relative to his production. Orlando, already compensating its other core players appropriately, is relying heavily on team fit and internal development to achieve substantial success and justify this considerable move.
Memphis Grizzlies Grade: B
The Mikal Bridges analogy doesn`t fully apply from Memphis`s perspective in this trade. Unlike the Brooklyn Nets, who seemed motivated to trade Bridges at his peak value to initiate a rebuild after missing the playoffs, the future direction for the Grizzlies is less clear. It`s remarkable to recall that only three months prior, the Grizzlies were tied for the second-best record in the Western Conference under coach Taylor Jenkins. Following a poor 2-8 stretch, Memphis replaced Jenkins with Tuomas Iisalo but still ended up as the 8th seed and were swept in the first round. Now, the team has dismantled the central trio of Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Ja Morant, a group that achieved 50-win seasons in both 2021-22 and 2022-23 and secured Memphis`s only playoff series victory since 2015.
Desmond Bane was clearly not the problem for that group. The team hasn`t truly been the same since Ja Morant`s suspensions for conduct detrimental to the league related to his use and display of firearms. Even last year`s success was arguably more dependent on the Grizzlies` roster depth than on their star power. Jaren Jackson Jr. was Memphis`s sole All-Star, and no Grizzlies player has been named to an All-NBA team since Morant in 2021-22.
If Memphis became convinced that this core group was no longer sufficient, then restructuring around Jaren Jackson Jr. while acquiring three additional first-round picks—plus one to replace this year`s first-rounder (sent to Washington to shed Marcus Smart`s salary)—makes some strategic sense. However, trading Bane only exacerbates the Grizzlies` need to acquire high-level talent.
In the immediate term, Memphis is expected to gain depth from this trade. While Kentavious Caldwell-Pope struggled with his shooting efficiency in Orlando, hitting 3-pointers at his lowest percentage (34%) since the 2015-16 season, he provided outstanding defense and should represent an upgrade for the Grizzlies on that end of the court. Cole Anthony will offer an additional ball-handling option behind Ja Morant and Scotty Pippen Jr. Having seen his efficiency dip after two solid seasons as a high-end backup point guard, Anthony is likely due for a performance rebound.
Another roster move is likely on the horizon for Memphis, as this trade increased their salary commitments for 2025-26. The Grizzlies had seemingly been aiming to create salary cap space, potentially with the goal of renegotiating Jaren Jackson Jr.`s contract in conjunction with a long-term extension. This is the most realistic way to secure him long-term after he missed out on All-NBA honors and supermax eligibility. Moving John Konchar`s $6.2 million salary, for example, would provide Memphis with sufficient room to increase Jackson`s salary by approximately $10 million for next season and offer him an extension commencing at nearly $48 million annually.
Regarding the draft capital acquired, the Grizzlies obtained picks with reasonable potential upside in this deal. In addition to securing this year`s No. 16 pick—a higher selection than either of the two 2025 picks the Nets received in the Bridges trade (No. 19 and No. 26)—Memphis also improved its position for next year`s Phoenix Suns first-rounder. The Grizzlies already held swap rights with the Suns, but those rights were subordinate to potential swaps involving both Washington and Orlando. Now, Memphis moves up one spot, ending up with the more favorable pick between Orlando`s 2026 first-rounder and the less favorable pick between those belonging to Phoenix and Washington. If both the Suns and Wizards fail to make the playoffs, this trade guarantees the Grizzlies a 2026 lottery pick.
Despite these gains, none of this fundamentally resolves Memphis`s core challenge. Until or unless Ja Morant consistently performs at a star level again, the Grizzlies may find themselves merely making minor adjustments until his contract concludes in 2028.