ESPN recently published its NBA Summer Forecast for the 2025-26 season, offering comprehensive predictions on league outcomes, including potential award winners, championship contenders, and expected team performances. While the forecast provides a consensus view on where all 30 NBA teams might finish in the standings, it`s acknowledged that such predictions are not always accurate (for example, the 2024-25 awards forecast was entirely incorrect). This analysis delves into five teams projected to surpass their anticipated win totals and five that are likely to underperform.
Five Teams to Exceed Expectations
Oklahoma City Thunder (Forecast: 64-18)
The Thunder, coming off a 65-win season, are in rare company. Historically, only the Bulls and Warriors have matched or surpassed such a high win total the following year, with most teams experiencing a significant drop-off. However, Oklahoma City is positioned to defy this trend. Factors include a further weakened Eastern Conference (against which they had a 29-1 record last season), a returning roster with continued improvement potential, and increased availability for Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, who collectively missed 75 games last season. With both available, OKC achieved an impressive 59-10 record, a 70-win pace. While another 70-win season is a long shot, the Thunder are strong contenders for the league`s best record and could achieve 65+ wins in consecutive seasons, making a repeat championship a distinct possibility.
LA Clippers (Forecast: 50-32)
The Clippers exceeded expectations last season with 50 wins, despite Paul George`s departure and Kawhi Leonard`s limited 37 games, a testament to coach Tyronn Lue`s leadership. This offseason, the team significantly upgraded its roster by acquiring Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, John Collins, and Brook Lopez, transforming them into one of the NBA`s deepest squads. Although the Clippers boast an older roster with only three rotation players under 30, their depth and coaching prowess are expected to mitigate age and injury concerns, enabling them to surpass last year`s win total.
Golden State Warriors (Forecast: 48-34)
The Warriors are projected to maintain their previous season`s win total, despite an aging roster and ongoing uncertainty regarding Jonathan Kuminga`s restricted free agency. This prediction hinges on the continued success of the Stephen Curry-Jimmy Butler III partnership, which saw Golden State achieve an impressive 22-5 record in their 27 games together last season. While age and injury remain significant concerns, especially with anticipated veteran additions like Al Horford, De`Anthony Melton, and Gary Payton II, a healthy core of Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green makes the Warriors a strong candidate to exceed expectations.
Miami Heat (Forecast: 39-43)
Despite a disappointing 37-45 season last year, marred by trade speculation around Jimmy Butler and a first-round play-in exit, the Miami Heat are poised for a rebound. The acquisition of Norman Powell, a 21.8 PPG scorer from last season, is expected to significantly boost Miami`s 21st-ranked offense. Additionally, their poor 14-28 clutch-game record last season indicates potential for positive regression, and a weakened Eastern Conference further enhances their chances of exceeding the forecast.
Toronto Raptors (Forecast: 33-49)
The Raptors finished 30-52 last season, largely due to a clear focus on draft positioning and Brandon Ingram`s absence post-trade. It`s improbable that Toronto will replicate such a low win total, particularly in a less formidable Eastern Conference, unless faced with severe injury woes. The team`s strategy under executive Masai Ujiri has been to rebuild swiftly for contention, evidenced by moves like trading for and extending Ingram. A team willingly paying the luxury tax, as Toronto is, expects to at least compete for a play-in spot, making them a strong candidate to outperform their forecast.
Five Teams to Fall Short
Minnesota Timberwolves (Forecast: 51-31)
Minnesota`s franchise history boasts only two seasons exceeding 51 wins (2004, 2024). Despite reaching their second consecutive Western Conference Finals last season, they ended with 49 wins, placing sixth. This summer, the loss of Nickeil Alexander-Walker means increased responsibility for young players like Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark, alongside heavy reliance on veterans Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. The team lacks clear replacements should these aging key players miss time; Naz Reid`s defensive capabilities don`t fully compensate for Gobert, and rookie Rob Dillingham`s readiness to take Conley`s mantle is uncertain. While Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, and Chris Finch`s coaching make them formidable, the highly competitive Western Conference and roster uncertainties suggest improving on last year`s win total will be challenging.
Detroit Pistons (Forecast: 47-35)
Following a remarkable leap from 14 to 44 wins last season, which saw Cade Cunningham emerge as an All-NBA player and the team make their first playoff appearance and win since 2019 and 2008 respectively, the Pistons face a “consolidation” year. While offseason moves brought in Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert, and a healthy Jaden Ivey is set to assume a larger role, the team will continue to rely heavily on the development of young talents like Ivey, Ron Holland II, Jalen Duren, and Ausar Thompson around Cunningham. Despite their potential to contend for a top-6 playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, reaching the projected 47-win mark might prove challenging as the team focuses on player development rather than solely maximizing wins, potentially leading them to fall short of this specific forecast.
Dallas Mavericks (Forecast: 44-38)
The Mavericks are expected to be one of the NBA`s most intriguing teams this season, integrating rookie Cooper Flagg, deploying massive lineups, and navigating the aftermath of the Luka Doncic trade and Kyrie Irving`s potential return from a torn ACL. Currently, D`Angelo Russell is the only reliable primary ball handler, though he is better suited for a backup role. Compounding this, Anthony Davis`s recurring health issues – including a groin injury and surgery for a detached retina – make surpassing their 44-win forecast a formidable challenge in the highly competitive Western Conference.
San Antonio Spurs (Forecast: 44-38)
Victor Wembanyama has already established himself as a dominant defensive presence in his second year. However, despite his brilliance, the Spurs` roster remains a work in progress, particularly concerning their guard rotation of De`Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, and Stephon Castle. The challenge lies in integrating these talented but inconsistent shooters and ensuring their compatibility with Wembanyama. This complex integration task for first-time head coach Mitch Johnson, combined with broader questions about the team`s future roster construction, suggests that while Wembanyama could single-handedly elevate their performance, San Antonio is more likely to fall short of their 44-win projection.
Portland Trail Blazers (Forecast: 39-43)
The Trail Blazers concluded last season with 36 wins, boosted by a late-season surge against resting or tanking teams. While they upgraded by acquiring Jrue Holiday for Anfernee Simons, the source of additional wins remains ambiguous. The team faces the challenge of blending veterans like Holiday and Jerami Grant with a young core featuring Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Donovan Clingan. Portland hopes their strong second-half defense from last season (fourth-best from January 15th onward) is sustainable, rather than their earlier 25th-ranked performance. With promising defensive assets like Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, and Clingan, and Holiday`s defensive prowess, improvements are possible. However, given the relentless competition in the Western Conference, the forecast suggests Portland will struggle to surpass last season`s win total.