As the 2025-26 NBA season draws near, formal postseason discussions remain distant. Yet, in a league renowned for its dramatic superstar movements, unexpected surges, and intense playoff battles, the period from October to April is consistently unpredictable.
Injuries are poised to significantly impact the Eastern Conference. Teams that were recently top contenders, like the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers, could see their standings decline due to key players being sidelined.
The Western Conference promises a highly competitive race, with standings far from predetermined. Last season`s playoff seeding was decided on the very last day. This year, following significant offseason changes, including Kevin Durant`s move to the Houston Rockets, anticipate another fiercely contested standings battle.
Our NBA experts have provided their projections for the win-loss records of all 30 teams across the league.
Note: The 2025-26 NBA Summer Forecast series will continue on Thursday with predictions for conference and finals champions. Previously, on Tuesday, we announced our selections for major individual awards, such as MVP and DPOY.
Eastern Conference
The Contenders
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: 59-23
2. New York Knicks: 54-28
3. Orlando Magic: 50-32
4. Atlanta Hawks: 47-35
5. Detroit Pistons: 47-35
The Cavaliers are bringing back 93% of their minutes from last season`s impressive 64-win campaign. They also bolstered their defense with two offseason acquisitions, Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance Jr. Adding to their favorable position, two significant conference rivals, the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers, lost star players Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton to season-ending injuries.
Despite this, the Cavaliers, led by All-Stars Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Darius Garland, are considered only slight favorites to win the East over the Knicks by ESPN BET. Last season, the Cavs defeated the Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns-led Knicks four times and secured 13 more victories. New York is undoubtedly a strong contender, having reached the conference finals and enhancing their roster depth with shrewd acquisitions like Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele.
However, the prevalent sentiment that the East is `wide open` — a phrase expected to circulate extensively in the coming months — subtly reflects a lack of confidence in the Cavaliers. This isn`t unwarranted, as they`ve underperformed in the playoffs for two consecutive seasons with largely the same core, even when accounting for injuries.
Our projections mirror this perspective: the Cavs lead the conference by default rather than by overwhelming consensus. Overall, there`s a noticeable lack of confidence in the Eastern Conference`s overall strength, with only three teams projected to surpass 47 wins. This projection seems counterintuitive, given that five teams exceeded this mark last season, and top Eastern teams typically benefit from easier schedules.
Yet, the Cavaliers, Knicks, and Magic all exhibit vulnerabilities. A clear opportunity exists for teams like Orlando, invigorated by the strategic addition of Desmond Bane, to challenge the top contenders. Similarly, the Hawks, following their assertive acquisition of Kristaps Porzingis from the Celtics and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, are poised for advancement. While our panel anticipates both teams improving in the East, they are not expected to dethrone the current leaders just yet. — Brian Windhorst
The Play-In Group
6. Milwaukee Bucks: 46-36
7. Boston Celtics: 43-39
8. Philadelphia 76ers: 40-42
9. Miami Heat: 39-43
10. Indiana Pacers: 39-43
The altered landscape of the East this season is largely attributable to star injuries and departures. Three torn Achilles injuries during last season`s playoffs dramatically shifted the trajectories for the Bucks, who traded Damian Lillard after his first-round injury; the Celtics, who dismantled their championship core following Tatum`s similar injury in the second round; and the Pacers, whose promising future was put on hold when Haliburton tore his Achilles during the NBA Finals. These factors explain why these three teams, all recent conference champions, are now projected to be in the middle of the pack, contending to avoid the play-in tournament.
The Heat reached the East finals two years ago, but after trading Jimmy Butler III, their ability to defy expectations again remains uncertain. Philadelphia might be the conference`s most challenging team to project, given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Joel Embiid`s health. All teams in this group face significant question marks as they enter the season, placing them below the conference`s elite.
The Bottom Five
11. Chicago Bulls: 36-46
12. Toronto Raptors: 33-49
13. Charlotte Hornets: 26-56
14. Brooklyn Nets: 23-59
15. Washington Wizards: 20-62
These five teams, positioned at the bottom of the East standings, can be categorized into three distinct groups.
First, there`s the Raptors, a team with the potential to ascend into the play-in tournament. Toronto opted not to trade Brandon Ingram last spring, instead offering him a nine-figure extension. Teams operating in the luxury tax typically don`t expect to be projected at the bottom of the standings, so their failure to make the postseason would be a significant disappointment.
Next are two teams at a pivotal juncture: the Bulls and the Hornets. Both possess talented players nearing their prime (Josh Giddey and Coby White in Chicago; LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller in Charlotte), along with promising long-term building blocks (Matas Buzelis and Noa Essengue; Tidjane Salaun and Kon Knueppel). Their rosters could either contend for a play-in spot or find themselves vying for a top spot in the lottery.
Finally, there are the Nets and Wizards, for whom the outlook is clear. Both teams are aiming for a top-four pick in the 2026 NBA draft, which is anticipated to feature a strong class of prospects. This season, they will focus on developing young players, trading for future assets, and hoping for a more favorable outcome in next May`s lottery. — Tim Bontemps
Western Conference
The Contenders
1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 64-18
2. Houston Rockets: 54-28
3. Denver Nuggets: 53-29
4. Minnesota Timberwolves: 51-31
5. LA Clippers: 50-32
6. Los Angeles Lakers: 50-32
Prepare to hear this often: the Thunder are the undisputed front-runner in the West. Fresh off becoming the youngest NBA title team in nearly five decades, Oklahoma City boasts unparalleled continuity for a defending champion, with its entire extended rotation returning intact. Reigning scoring champion, MVP, and Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in the early stages of his prime, while supporting stars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are ascending talents who recently signed rookie contract extensions. It would be no surprise if the Thunder once again challenged the 70-win milestone. The Rockets were a surprise last season, soaring to the West`s second seed before a first-round playoff exit. Houston addressed a glaring roster hole — a primary offensive option — by acquiring future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant without sacrificing their long-term contender aspirations.
The Nuggets also strengthened their bench, addressing an obvious need by creating financial flexibility. They traded Michael Porter Jr. and a 2032 first-round pick for Cameron Johnson, a potential upgrade at small forward. After pushing the Thunder to seven games in the West semifinals, Denver is determined to give three-time MVP Nikola Jokic a genuine chance at another championship ring. The Lakers are arguably the most captivating team in the West, transitioning into the Luka Doncic era while all-time leading scorer LeBron James remains on the roster and squarely in the spotlight. — Tim MacMahon
The Play-In Group
7. Golden State Warriors: 48-34
8. Dallas Mavericks: 44-38
9. San Antonio Spurs: 44-38
10. Memphis Grizzlies: 42-40
The West is so densely packed with contenders that a few will inevitably be relegated to this bracket, compelled to play an additional game or two with their playoff aspirations on the line. This scenario is particularly precarious for aging teams like the Warriors and Mavericks, who will likely spend the final month of the season in an intense standings sprint, missing out on the extra week of pre-playoff rest afforded to top teams.
However, two teams still advance from the play-in. The seventh-seeded Warriors defeated the second-seeded Rockets in the first round last April. If Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, and Draymond Green are healthy, the West`s top two seeds will not be thrilled to face the Warriors emerging from the seventh or eighth slot this spring. The same applies to the Mavericks if Kyrie Irving makes his return in time from his ACL tear, an injury that will have kept him sidelined for 13 months by the end of the regular season.
The other two teams in this bracket — the Spurs and Grizzlies — appear to be heading in different directions. San Antonio is entering the third season of its patient rebuild around Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs won 22 and 34 games in his first two seasons, and our projections anticipate them making a significant leap into the 40s this season. Conversely, the Grizzlies traded one of their core players this summer, Desmond Bane, for a draft pick package, a move that could signal the franchise is preparing for a step back. — Anthony Slater
The Bottom Five
11. Portland Trail Blazers: 39-43
12. Sacramento Kings: 37-45
13. Phoenix Suns: 30-52
14. New Orleans Pelicans: 26-56
15. Utah Jazz: 19-63
The Blazers are welcoming a new owner, Damian Lillard is back, and Yang Hansen is an intriguing rookie for a team striving for contender status. While head coach Chauncey Billups will push his team with new addition Jrue Holiday, Portland`s long-term prospects seem brighter than their immediate season. The West has only grown stronger, and Lillard is out for the season. Portland possesses young talent in Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe, along with prospects like Donovan Clingan to develop. However, for the Blazers to realistically compete for a play-in or playoff spot, Scoot Henderson must fulfill the potential that made him the third pick in 2023.
Sacramento will play a full season under new coach Doug Christie, who will aim to maximize the performance of Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, and DeMar DeRozan, with Dennis Schroder at point guard. With Kevin Durant now in Houston and Bradley Beal in LA, Phoenix has commenced its rebuild around Devin Booker and a wealth of big men. New Orleans has added Jordan Poole and Jeremiah Fears, and still has Zion Williamson, but his health remains a persistent question mark. Rounding out the bottom five, Utah`s perpetual rebuild continues with new addition Ace Bailey, though the Jazz appear destined to finish in the West`s basement once again. — Ohm Youngmisuk