As the NBA season kicks off on Tuesday, team executives are also intensely focused on another critical event: the rookie contract extension deadline. This pivotal moment, which also applies to veterans whose contracts extend beyond the current season, is set for Monday at 6 p.m. ET, just a day before the 2025-26 season opener featuring the Houston Rockets and the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder.
Ahead of this season, several players from the 2022 draft class have already secured extensions. Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, and Jabari Smith Jr. — the first, second, and third picks chosen by the Orlando Magic, Thunder, and Rockets, respectively — all inked long-term agreements in July. Jalen Williams (No. 12, OKC) followed suit this offseason, along with Nikola Jovic (No. 27, Miami Heat) last month. Most recently, on Wednesday, Keegan Murray (No. 4) and the Sacramento Kings finalized a five-year, $140 million deal.
Now, attention turns to the 15 remaining players from that draft class who are still eligible for extensions before Monday`s deadline. The question is, how many more will secure long-term commitments with their current franchises?
It`s worth noting that historically, many of these deals materialize at the eleventh hour; 14 of the 25 players who signed rookie extensions in 2023 and 2024 did so on the final day of eligibility. Moreover, teams face the added pressure of finalizing their standard 15-player rosters by Monday.
Considering these factors, this analysis delves into the market for ten of the most prominent players in the rookie extension pool. We will explore the most compelling ongoing negotiations and offer insights into their potential outcomes.
Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
Why an extension could get done:
Daniels represents a major success for Atlanta. Joining the Hawks last summer via the Dejounte Murray trade with the New Orleans Pelicans, he was named the NBA`s Most Improved Player last season, leading the league in steals with 229 – the most by any player since Gary Payton in 1995-96. Given the Hawks` successful last-minute deal with Jalen Johnson last year, a similar outcome for Daniels appears plausible.
Why it might not:
Daniels` agent, Daniel Moldovan, reportedly cites Jalen Suggs` five-year, $150 million extension as a benchmark, especially considering Trae Young`s uncertain future with Atlanta. Daniels achieved First-Team All-Defense honors, placed second in Defensive Player of the Year voting, and significantly boosted his offensive production from 5.8 to 14.1 points. However, Young holds a $49 million player option for next season and has been eligible for an extension since mid-June, adding complexity to Atlanta`s cap situation.
What to Expect: Our Offer Prediction
A projected offer for Daniels would be a five-year, $125 million contract, maintaining a flat $25 million per season. Accounting for this new deal and Young`s player option, Atlanta would remain $26 million below the luxury tax threshold and well within both apron limits.
Will a Deal Happen?
Drawing parallels from last year`s negotiations with Jalen Johnson, where an agreement was reached just before the deadline, this situation might also go down to Monday`s wire. While an extension seems probable, settling on a mutually agreeable figure could prove challenging.
Christian Braun and Peyton Watson, Denver Nuggets
Why an extension could get done:
Braun has become an indispensable component of Denver`s team. He played a key role in the Nuggets` first NBA title during his rookie season and then transitioned into a starting role at shooting guard last season, replacing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He stands out as a clear long-term asset for the Nuggets. Watson, with his athletic prowess and interesting skill set alongside Nikola Jokic, also presents an appealing case for a long-term contract.
Why it might not:
The Nuggets successfully reduced their cap ledger by nearly $17 million for next season after trading Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson. However, Denver is projected to be $24 million below the apron, even before factoring in new contracts for Braun and Watson, as they begin Aaron Gordon`s extended deal. While they could gain $10 million in salary relief by waiving Jonas Valanciunas, this would mean foregoing his guaranteed contract past June 29.
What to Expect: Our Offer Prediction
Even if Valanciunas is waived, the Nuggets are likely to remain a second-apron team if both Watson and Braun receive extensions and the roster is filled with minimum contracts. This financial hurdle requires a trade to clear substantial money. For Braun, some executives point to Suggs` five-year, $150 million deal as a comparable. However, Suggs` deal was largely due to his Second-Team All-Defense selection in 2024, whereas Braun`s impact spans both ends of the floor, averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks last season and becoming the first player since Buddy Hield in 2018-19 with at least 400 fast-break points. Additionally, Orlando had more financial flexibility for Suggs than Denver currently possesses. A five-year, $126.5 million extension for Braun, starting at $21.8 million, offers a strong compromise, placing his next season`s salary among the top 15 shooting guards. Watson`s extension is trickier to predict due to his upside (at 23) and bench role. A four-year, $54 million extension would be team-friendly, with his next year`s salary $3 million below the non-tax midlevel exception.
Will a Deal Happen?
Braun`s deal seems most probable. He is too vital to Denver`s ambitions, and securing cost certainty on his contract before he becomes a restricted free agent next summer is crucial. While Watson is an intriguing talent, considering how Zeke Nnaji`s extension has performed for the Nuggets, it would be surprising if Denver pursued a similar deal with Watson now, especially given their future financial outlook.
Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Why an extension could get done:
Ivey showed promising improvement before a leg injury unfortunately sidelined him for the final months of last season. His skill set could complement Cade Cunningham effectively in the backcourt moving forward. For Duren, the case is straightforward: he is a 21-year-old who achieved a double-double average in his inaugural season under J.B. Bickerstaff, and both the team and player hope for continued development in the upcoming seasons.
Why it might not:
A key consideration for the Pistons is the broken left fibula Ivey suffered on January 1. While GM Trajan Langdon stated before training camp that Ivey faces no restrictions, Detroit may not rush an aggressive contract until his performance can be evaluated during the regular season. Duren`s future is complicated by the reluctance to pay a premium for a center. Since 2020, only two big men — Alperen Sengun and Jaren Jackson Jr. — have signed non-max rookie extensions starting at $20 million or more.
What to Expect: Our Offer Prediction
Despite handing out a five-year, $269 million extension to Cunningham in 2024, the Pistons still possess the financial flexibility to sign both players to lucrative extensions and improve the roster through free agency or trades. A five-year, $112.5 million extension for Duren could start at $25.6 million and decline to $19.4 million in the final season. This contract acknowledges Duren`s achievements in his first three seasons and his potential; he is one of only five players in NBA history with at least 100 career double-doubles before turning 22. For Ivey, a four-year, $86.5 million extension with a fluctuating structure is suggested, starting at $23.9 million and decreasing to $19.3 million in the last year. Including a prior injury exclusion (Exhibit 3) would protect Detroit if Ivey sustains another injury to the same leg.
Will a Deal Happen?
It seems unlikely either of these extensions will materialize. Too many complex factors complicate reaching a fair number for Ivey, making it more probable that both sides will observe his performance this season and revisit negotiations next summer. For Duren, despite his youth and improvement, long-term questions regarding his rim protection make a significant commitment now seem beyond Detroit`s current intentions. It is also worth noting that the current front office did not draft either player.
Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
Why an extension could get done:
Eason is a favorite among analytics enthusiasts, consistently performing for the Rockets since being drafted 17th in 2022. While he`s likely to remain a bench player this season, versatile combo forwards with his skill set and disruptive capabilities on both ends of the court are highly valued. Houston has also demonstrated a consistent ability to lock in its young core players with favorable contracts.
Why it might not:
The Rockets are likely to consider Eason`s history of injuries, including season-ending surgery on his left leg in the 2023-24 season and 22 games missed last season due to the same leg. He played all 82 games in his rookie season but only a combined 59 in the subsequent two. Eason has started only 16 games and is expected to retain his sixth-man role this season. Furthermore, Houston extended Jabari Smith with a deal starting at $23.6 million next season and anticipates extending Kevin Durant, adding to their financial commitments.
What to Expect: Our Offer Prediction
A four-year, $80 million offer is proposed. In the apron era, teams must prioritize their own pending free agents and carefully manage future finances. With Amen Thompson eligible for an extension next summer, justifying an average salary of $20 million or more for a bench player becomes challenging.
Will a Deal Happen?
This extension feels like it will eventually be finalized. Given Eason`s injury history, securing long-term financial stability is a sensible move for him. Houston, under General Manager Rafael Stone, has consistently locked up its young talent, and this trend is expected to continue.
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
Why an extension could get done:
Pacers coach Rick Carlisle announced last summer that Mathurin, the team`s first single-digit draft pick in decades, would assume a starting role with Tyrese Haliburton sidelined for the season. For a franchise known for retaining its homegrown talent, an extension for Mathurin could be a logical step.
Why it might not:
While Mathurin`s minutes and production are expected to rise this season in Haliburton`s absence, questions remain about whether Indiana can afford to pay starter-level money for the wing, given that $80 million is already committed to Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, and T.J. McConnell next season. Mathurin has played 60% of his games off the bench over the past three seasons. An extension would also push Indiana over the luxury tax and close to the first apron in 2026-27.
What to Expect: Our Offer Prediction
A four-year, $68 million contract is suggested. Mathurin`s consistent production over the past three years warrants an extension averaging $17 million. He is one of only four players from his draft class to score at least 3,000 points and averaged 16 points for the second time in his three seasons in 2024-25, leading all reserves in postseason scoring. However, his playing time next season and the Pacers` overall payroll must be considered.
Will a Deal Happen?
This extension appears improbable. Indiana, a team that has avoided the luxury tax for decades, already has $160 million committed to seven players next season. This leaves the Pacers with approximately $40 million to complete their roster below the luxury tax, and notably, without a clear starting center among their current contracts. A deal that Mathurin would accept now seems too costly for the Pacers within these financial constraints.
Mark Williams, Phoenix Suns
Why an extension could get done:
Phoenix has already demonstrated its commitment to Williams by sending two first-round picks – the No. 29 pick this past June and a 2029 first-rounder – to acquire him from the Charlotte Hornets. Given this significant investment, signing Williams to a long-term contract with the franchise would be a sensible next step.
Why it might not:
Williams` health is perhaps the most closely scrutinized in the NBA. The Lakers traded for Williams in February, only for the deal to be rescinded after he failed his physical. Following this, Williams averaged 28.6 minutes, 15.1 points, 10.7 rebounds, and a career-high 1.3 blocks. However, he has never played more than 45 games in any season, missing 116 games due to various injuries (back, left foot, and thumb). A likely strategy for the Suns is to evaluate Williams` performance this season and then engage in contract discussions next summer when he becomes a restricted free agent.
What to Expect: Our Offer Prediction
A three-year, $51 million extension is proposed. This contract would maintain a flat $17 million per season and include an Exhibit 3 clause (prior injury exclusion), protecting the Suns if Williams suffers another foot or back injury. The final year of the contract would be non-guaranteed but would feature a minutes clause that partially or fully protects the salary. For instance, if Williams plays in 55 games in 2025-26, 2026-27, and 2027-28, the contract would become fully guaranteed. If he meets the criteria in one of the next three seasons, the protection would increase from zero to $5.66 million.
Will a Deal Happen?
Despite the draft capital invested in acquiring Williams, an extension seems unlikely. He is a talented lob threat, but given his existing injury concerns and only 106 career games played, this situation appears destined for a wait-and-see approach.
Shaedon Sharpe, Portland Trail Blazers
Why an extension could get done:
Sharpe was General Manager Joe Cronin`s inaugural draft pick in 2022 and, at just 22 years old, will be entering his fourth NBA season. He is also a 6-foot-6 multifaceted wing who averaged 18.5 points last season. These factors make a strong case for Portland to retain him as a core part of their future program.
Why it might not:
Cap flexibility next offseason poses a significant challenge. Even after trading for Jrue Holiday and signing Damian Lillard, Portland`s current salary stands at $129 million against a projected salary cap of $166 million. However, Sharpe`s cap hold as a free agent is $25.2 million, meaning Portland is already over the cap. To free up room, the Blazers would likely have to let Sharpe walk in free agency.
What to Expect: Our Offer Prediction
A four-year, $105 million extension is suggested. While this contract may seem substantial, it represents a bet on Sharpe`s high upside. In his first two combined seasons, he scored 1,299 points, and then surpassed that with 1,335 points last season alone. He became the first Trail Blazer to record seven career 30-point games before turning 22. The proposed contract would start at $29 million and decline each season, with the final year at $23.5 million. This would leave the Trail Blazers $40 million below the luxury tax, providing sufficient room to sign Toumani Camara and access the non-tax midlevel exception.
Will a Deal Happen?
It is expected that this deal will ultimately be finalized. The Blazers have integrated veterans to support their young core, and the organization has expressed confidence in building upon its strong second half from last season. Retaining Sharpe and leveraging that momentum moving forward is a crucial part of their strategic plan.
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
Why an extension could get done:
Finalizing Kessler`s extension would allow President of Basketball Operations Austin Ainge to commit to a key player acquired in the Rudy Gobert trade three years ago, keeping him with the franchise through the end of the decade. This move would solidify Utah`s rebuild around a player who has consistently displayed dominant rim protection skills under coach Will Hardy.
Why it might not:
Being drafted outside the lottery and subsequently outperforming one`s initial contract presents a unique challenge. Because Kessler was selected with the 22nd pick in 2022, his free agent cap hold next season is a modest $14.7 million. This implies that if the Jazz were to sign Kessler to a starting salary of $25 million for next season, they would then lose $10 million in cap flexibility. Including Kessler`s hold, Utah currently projects to have a minimum of $50 million in cap space.
What to Expect: Our Offer Prediction
A five-year, $116 million extension is proposed, representing a win-win scenario. For Kessler, a $20 million starting salary next season would place him among the top 15 centers in the league. The Jazz, in turn, would sacrifice only $4 million in cap flexibility next summer.
Will a Deal Happen?
This extension is unlikely. Both sides have indicated that a deal won`t materialize soon. Kessler`s low cap hold for next summer without an extension makes him a valuable trade asset or a crucial player for the Jazz to retain and build around as they transition into the next phase of their rebuild under Ainge.
Rupert Hollis 
Jasper Carew