NBA Playoffs 2025: Path to the Title for Conference Semifinalists

The NBA conference semifinals represent a significant escalation in both stakes and the quality of competition. While few outside the Golden State Warriors initially expected play-in teams to contend for the 2025 championship, once the playoff field narrows to eight remaining teams, every contender possesses a genuine chance.

This heightened competition was immediately apparent in the opening days of the second round. Road teams successfully upset the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 1), the second-seeded Boston Celtics (No. 2), and the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 1) in Game 1 of their respective series.

With the sport`s ultimate prize now firmly within sight, let`s examine the requirements for each remaining team to lift the Larry O`Brien Trophy this June. What specific strengths must they leverage? What weaknesses need to be minimized? And what particular matchups would benefit them or should be avoided?

Here is an analysis of how each team still in contention can potentially win the 2025 NBA championship, presented in order of their title probabilities as calculated by ESPN`s Basketball Power Index (BPI).

Skip to a team:
BOS | CLE | DEN | GS
IND | MIN | NYK | OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder

Statistical models overwhelmingly favor the Thunder for the title. This confidence stems from their NBA record +12.9 point differential, the likely MVP performance of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and one of the league`s best defenses. However, their championship journey might be less straightforward than their regular-season dominance suggests.

Navigating a challenging playoff bracket in the West could prove difficult. The Thunder had mixed regular-season records against key contenders: 2-2 versus Denver, 2-2 against Minnesota, and 1-2 versus Golden State. They also possess less playoff experience than these conference rivals, a factor highlighted by an uncharacteristic late collapse in their Game 1 loss against Denver.

To maximize their chances of securing the franchise`s first championship since the Seattle SuperSonics won in 1979, the Thunder require improved play from their star players moving forward. Gilgeous-Alexander is currently in a minor shooting slump, posting a 45% effective field goal percentage in the playoffs, a notable drop from his remarkable 57% in the regular season. His key teammates also struggled significantly in Game 1; Jalen Williams shot just 5-for-20 from the field, while Chet Holmgren scored only 12 points and missed critical free throws in the final seconds.

Oklahoma City`s second-round defeat to the Dallas Mavericks last season partly occurred because the supporting cast struggled to make Dallas pay for focusing their defense on SGA. Williams and Holmgren must elevate their performance and demonstrate they are capable championship-level second and third options.

The Thunder also need to improve their rebounding. Although Isaiah Hartenstein was acquired in free agency to address the size disadvantage experienced against Dallas last postseason, Denver still secured 21 offensive rebounds in Game 1.

Despite one late collapse, this single game doesn`t negate the Thunder`s overall potential to win the title. On paper, they remain the NBA`s best team. Now, they must translate that potential into concrete results on the court.

Indiana Pacers

For several months, the Pacers have performed like one of the NBA`s elite teams. They concluded the regular season with a strong 34-14 record, achieving the NBA`s sixth-best net rating during that span and ranking in the top 10 for both offensive and defensive efficiency.

This level of performance has continued in the playoffs. They comfortably defeated the Bucks and have taken control of their second-round series against Cleveland with two road victories on the Cavaliers` home court.

Indiana`s surge coincided with the return from injury of key role players Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith earlier in the season. The Pacers` primary starting lineup, featuring Haliburton, Nembhard, Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner, posted a +11.1 net rating in the regular season and has been even better in the playoffs at +18.2, ranking second among all lineups with at least 25 minutes played.

The core group for Indiana offers a complementary blend of skills: shooting, playmaking, fast pace, and perimeter defense. Coach Rick Carlisle also benefits from strong support off the bench from players like T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, and Obi Toppin, each of whom has scored in double figures multiple times in the playoffs.

Crucially, Indiana fully embraces its offensive identity, allowing them to dictate the pace of games and disrupt their opponents` rhythm. With Tyrese Haliburton orchestrating the offense, the Pacers consistently generate high-quality shots and commit few turnovers, providing them with a reliable offensive foundation every night.

The team`s defense shows significant improvement compared to last season, when they struggled to get enough stops to seriously challenge Boston in the conference finals. In the 2023-24 season, Indiana ranked 24th in defensive rating during the regular season and 13th out of 16 playoff teams. This season, the Pacers are a much more balanced squad on both ends of the floor.

Golden State Warriors

Among players still active in the 2025 postseason, only three have earned at least three championships: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney. Combined with Steve Kerr, who has won five titles as a player and four as a coach, and Jimmy Butler III, who, despite no rings, has been the driving force behind two surprising Finals runs, the Warriors possess unparalleled experience at the highest playoff level.

The Warriors` hopes continue to rest heavily on Curry – who must return soon from a hamstring injury for the team to have any realistic title shot – and Butler. They need just enough supplementary scoring and defense from players like Game 7 hero Buddy Hield, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody.

Defensively, the team was the best in the league after the All-Star break, with the Butler-Green pairing controlling the game and effectively shutting down Houston in the first round and Minnesota in Game 1.

Don`t underestimate Kevon Looney`s value either. While the Warriors are often comfortable playing small, the veteran center was crucial against Houston`s size in the first round and Rudy Gobert`s Timberwolves in Game 1. He may be called upon for similar contributions against Nikola Jokic`s Nuggets or the Thunder`s `double-big` lineups later. The Warriors have schematic versatility and a proven ability to make mid-series adjustments.

Another advantage for Golden State is Steve Kerr`s understanding of managing the postseason as an extended journey rather than just individual games. In their Game 5 blowout loss in Houston, for example, Kerr conceded early, limiting any player to more than 26 minutes, helping Curry and Butler stay fresh for their high-minute performances in Game 7 a few nights later.

Unlike the teams with the highest title odds, Golden State lacks the offensive ceiling that would allow them to cruise to a championship. They don`t have consistent scoring threats outside of their stars, and Curry`s injury makes reaching the conference finals a significant challenge. However, if he returns, they absolutely have the experience and defensive framework to string together 12 more wins over the coming weeks. In any decisive Game 7 scenario, they might be the most favored team remaining.

Boston Celtics

Nine Celtics players logged at least 100 minutes last postseason, and all nine remain with the team this spring. The adage “If it ain`t broke, don`t fix it” seems to apply, as coach Joe Mazzulla has maintained a consistent rotation since their 16-3 run to the 2024 title.

The Celtics enter every game with a mathematical advantage due to their league-leading volume and efficiency in 3-point shooting. Alongside the Thunder, they were one of only two teams this season to rank in the top five for both offensive and defensive rating. Beyond their system, Boston relies on immense talent, featuring five elite starters and high-level role players in Al Horford and Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard.

With Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks eliminated in the first round, Jayson Tatum now possesses an ironclad claim as the best player remaining in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Tatum himself has elevated his game since earning a ring in 2024 (though not Finals MVP). After missing Game 2 of their first-round sweep against the Orlando Magic, Tatum finished the series with scoring outputs of 36, 37, and 35 points in the final three games, seemingly scoring at will against the NBA`s second-ranked defense.

Even following a Game 1 loss to the New York Knicks, Boston remains a strong favorite to reach the conference finals. They dominated the Knicks during a regular-season sweep and would likely have done the same in Game 1 if not for severe shooting misfortune. According to tracking data, the Celtics underperformed their expected effective field goal percentage – calculated based on factors like shot location and defender proximity – by 15% in Game 1, their worst mark of the entire season. Had Boston`s shooters performed at their regular-season level, the Celtics would have scored an estimated 30 additional points in Game 1.

In simple terms, the Celtics` shooting is virtually guaranteed to improve going forward. When it does, they will take another significant step toward potentially becoming the first team since the Kevin Durant-era Warriors to repeat as champions.

Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic is arguably the best player in the world, and the formula that led the Nuggets to the 2023 championship remains effective, as evidenced by his historic 40-point, 22-rebound, 6-assist performance in Game 1 against Oklahoma City.

However, Jokic cannot carry the team alone. For Denver to win its second title in three years, his supporting cast must also step up. So far, this has been reasonably successful: Aaron Gordon has already hit multiple game-winning shots, and Jamal Murray`s efficient 43-point outburst in Game 5 of the first round stands as the best single-game scoring performance by any player this postseason.

Denver`s offense is as potent as ever when their top players are on the court. The Murray-Jokic pick-and-roll remains nearly unstoppable, producing a scorching 1.35 points per play this postseason according to tracking data. The Nuggets` primary starting lineup boasts a plus-12.9 net rating in the playoffs. Even a lineup substituting Russell Westbrook for Michael Porter Jr. has been highly effective at plus-23.8.

The Nuggets will need to manage potential fatigue as the playoffs advance, given their shallow rotation and surviving a demanding seven-game series against the Clippers before immediately facing the strong Thunder team.

Yet, fatigue didn`t seem to slow down the 2023 champions in Game 1 against the Thunder, where they scored 71 second-half points. In the two teams` last regular-season meeting, in March, Jokic and Murray combined for 69 points, and the Nuggets shot a blistering 56% from 3-point range (18-for-32). While they won`t maintain that shooting level nightly, they clearly possess the capability to overwhelm even the league`s best defense.

If Denver can defeat Oklahoma City, they are capable of beating any team. It would also be beneficial if the Warriors could defeat the Timberwolves in the other Western Conference bracket, as Minnesota has had significant success against Denver over the past season, including winning Game 7 on the Nuggets` home court last spring.

New York Knicks

It`s challenging to envision the Knicks breaking their title drought dating back to 1973 – even after achieving an improbable comeback win in Boston in Game 1. The Celtics would likely have won Game 1 if not for extreme shooting luck, and they swept the regular-season series against New York.

Furthermore, New York struggled to get past the sixth-seeded Detroit Pistons in the first round. Their combined margin of victory across their four wins in that series was just 17 points, significantly less dominant than the margins posted by Cleveland (122), Boston (66), or Indiana (54).

However, the Knicks` playoff run so far, powered by Clutch Player of the Year Jalen Brunson, does demonstrate one potential path to a title: winning close games through sheer grit and late-game heroics.

While more clutch performances from Brunson and his teammates would be necessary, New York could also benefit from external circumstances, specifically luck with opponent injuries. Last year, their playoff run was curtailed by excessive injuries. Could the Knicks find themselves on the beneficial side of that equation this postseason?

New York is still the underdog against Boston. However, key Celtics players like Tatum and Jrue Holiday have already missed games this postseason, Jaylen Brown is dealing with a knee issue, and Kristaps Porzingis left Game 1 early due to illness. While Boston is deeper and more talented, the dynamics of this matchup would change considerably if Boston were missing a star or had key players significantly hampered by injuries.

If the Knicks could manage to sneak past a hypothetically injury-affected Celtics team, and if Indiana were to upset Cleveland in the other series, New York could potentially gain home-court advantage in the Conference Finals. This scenario would present a serious opportunity for the franchise to finally end its 52-year title drought.

Cleveland Cavaliers

What appeared to be a magical season just days ago has rapidly become challenging for Cleveland, as a combination of injuries and facing a hot Pacers team conspire against the East`s top seed. Darius Garland missed the first two games against Indiana, Evan Mobley and De`Andre Hunter were absent for Game 2, and Tyrese Haliburton sank a game-winning 3-pointer to put the Cavaliers in a difficult 0-2 hole.

So, how can Cleveland recover and get back on a championship track? The most crucial step is regaining health. Playing short-handed, as seen in Donovan Mitchell`s remarkable 48-point effort in Game 2 which still resulted in a loss, is not a sustainable strategy for a playoff series, especially given how visibly exhausted Mitchell and Jarrett Allen appeared late in that game. Cleveland desperately needs Mobley`s size and defensive presence, Garland`s playmaking, and Hunter`s shooting, in addition to the added depth this trio provides, to have a realistic chance of a series comeback.

Other factors potentially favor Cleveland`s recovery. The Cavaliers are likely to experience positive shooting regression in upcoming games; they ranked second in the regular season with a 38% mark from 3-point range and hit 44% in their first-round sweep of Miami, but have shot just 26% through two games against the Pacers. Conversely, the Pacers` unsustainable 47% 3-point shooting against Cleveland is almost certain to regress.

If their injured stars return – and an extra day off before Game 3 provides some hope – and shooting luck normalizes, Cleveland actually has a chance to overcome their deficit, even with the next two games hosted by Indiana. It will be exceedingly difficult for the Cavaliers, but five previous teams have won a playoff series after losing the first two games at home, most recently the 2020-21 LA Clippers against Dallas.

Projecting the Cavaliers` path beyond the conference semifinals feels overly optimistic at this moment. However, a fully healthy Cleveland squad won 64 games and had the NBA`s second-best point differential this season, demonstrating that *that* team is capable of winning it all, provided they can navigate this difficult series against Indiana. But time is rapidly running out.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves entered the playoffs with strong momentum, finishing the regular season with a 17-4 record over their final 21 games, followed by a convincing upset of the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round. Minnesota`s suffocating defense notably held a team featuring two of the greatest offensive players in NBA history – LeBron James and Luka Doncic – below 100 points in three out of five games.

Minnesota benefits from Anthony Edwards` ascending superstardom, Julius Randle playing arguably the best playoff basketball of his career, Jaden McDaniels fitting the ideal 3-and-D archetype, and valuable starting-caliber players like Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker providing depth off the bench. The team is blessed with excellent shooting and size across their rotation.

Even though they lost Game 1 to a Golden State team missing Stephen Curry for most of the game, the odds should dramatically favor Minnesota if the league`s all-time 3-point leader is sidelined for multiple games or the entire series.

However, the Timberwolves themselves need to improve their three-point shooting to advance further in the playoffs. They managed to defeat the Lakers despite a team shooting mark of only 32% from distance (down from 38%, fourth in the NBA, in the regular season), and started Game 1 against Golden State by missing their first 16 attempts from three, finishing with just five makes.

Specifically, DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, and Mike Conley have collectively shot a very poor 21% from deep (17-for-82) this postseason. At least one of them needs to start consistently hitting open looks to provide Anthony Edwards with a reliable backcourt partner in crucial late-game situations.

Minnesota would also benefit if Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets could upset the Thunder in their series, given Minnesota`s strong record against Denver over the past year. Nevertheless, the Timberwolves are brimming with confidence and possess the athleticism and defensive capability to make any opponent`s life miserable over the course of a seven-game series.

Last season, the Timberwolves took a significant step forward by reaching the conference finals before ultimately running out of steam. They may now possess better knowledge of how to manage their energy and pace themselves throughout the postseason. This potential growth makes them a truly frightening prospect for any team standing in their path.