While the NBA playoffs` second round was set to tip off on Sunday, the focus remained on two high-stakes Game 7 matchups wrapping up the opening round.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves secured swift victories against their initial opponents. In contrast, the other two series in the Western Conference proved to be the most fiercely contested battles of the first round.
The LA Clippers managed to push their series against the Denver Nuggets to a Game 7 with a 111-105 win on Thursday. However, they couldn`t overcome the Nuggets on the road Saturday, as Denver claimed a dominant 120-101 victory to advance and face the Thunder.
Meanwhile, trailing 3-1 on Wednesday, the Houston Rockets kept their season alive with a 115-107 road win over Golden State on Friday night. This set the stage for a decisive Game 7 between the two teams on Sunday, with the winner earning a spot against the Timberwolves in the second round.
With the Nuggets already through, attention turns to the key factors for Sunday`s pivotal Game 7. What will be critical for each team to secure advancement to the next round? Our NBA insiders weigh in on the biggest questions surrounding the remaining winner-take-all contest.
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
How can the Warriors advance?
Golden State holds a significant advantage heading into Sunday`s game thanks to their extensive Game 7 experience in the playoffs. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have participated in five Game 7s throughout their careers, while coach Steve Kerr has coached in four. This collective experience should prove invaluable.
For the Warriors to succeed, they must effectively counter Houston`s zone defense and create scoring opportunities for Curry. Although Curry scored 29 points in Game 6, he managed only 13 in the second half on 4-for-13 shooting. Historically, Curry and Green hold a 3-2 record in Game 7s, including a significant road win against Sacramento in 2023 where Curry exploded for 50 points. Curry`s career average of 32.6 points in Game 7s ranks him fourth all-time, behind only Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Michael Jordan, according to ESPN Research.
Beyond their stars, the Warriors need additional offensive contributions. A third player needs to step up, whether it`s Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, or Moses Moody hitting crucial outside shots to break down the zone. Draymond Green must also deliver a Defensive Player of the Year caliber performance, following his third-place finish in voting this season. Crucially, Golden State must minimize turnovers and contain Fred VanVleet. Coach Kerr indicated that “everything is on the table” for Game 7, suggesting potential tactical adjustments or lineup changes, possibly including more playing time for Jonathan Kuminga.
How can the Rockets advance?
According to coach Ime Udoka, consistency, playing the correct way, and executing simple plays repeatedly are paramount, maintaining the team`s core philosophy. Houston has troubled Golden State effectively when deploying their double-big lineups. Udoka notes these lineups often incorporate zone elements “out of necessity” to protect certain defensive matchups.
Surprisingly, the Rockets have utilized zone defense even with sharpshooter Stephen Curry on the floor. Udoka explained, “Our activity up top is great, and the principles with obviously Curry and recognizing where he is in the zone, it takes a lot of communication. And if you stay with him, we fill the spots behind it.”
In Game 7, Golden State will be seeking ways to exploit Houston`s zone schemes when Curry is on the court. The Rockets, however, need to continue imposing their physicality against the older, potentially fatigued Warriors. Winning the battles for paint scoring and second-chance points will be vital. Udoka often emphasizes Houston`s mantra of converting defense into offense, which facilitates their transition game. In Game 6, the Rockets scored 22 points directly from Golden State`s 17 turnovers. Players like Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, and Jalen Green will be key in generating fast-break points.
How did they get here?
The series began with the Warriors stealing Game 1 in Houston, a physical contest described by Steve Kerr as reminiscent of 1997 basketball, where defense and every possession were critical. Curry scored 31 points for Golden State, while Butler showcased his `Playoff Jimmy` persona with 25 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and five steals. Houston responded in Game 2 with a dominant 109-94 victory, highlighted by Jalen Green`s 38 points. Butler`s participation was limited to eight minutes in the first quarter after an injury sustained from Amen Thompson undercutting him on a defensive rebound, resulting in a painful glute muscle contusion.
Butler missed Game 3 due to the injury, but the Warriors secured a 104-93 home win, fueled by Curry`s 36 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds. Golden State appeared to take a commanding 3-1 lead when Butler scored 14 of his 27 points in the fourth quarter and secured a crucial rebound after Draymond Green forced an Alperen Sengun miss with 6.4 seconds remaining.
However, the Rockets decisively routed Golden State in Game 5, leading by as much as 31 points early in the third quarter before Kerr opted to rest his starters. In Game 6, Golden State failed to close out the series at home, missing 14 of their first 15 shots in the fourth quarter and allowing Houston to go on a 20-5 run. The Rockets` effective zone defense has consistently disrupted Golden State`s offense and neutralized Curry at times, ultimately forcing this Game 7.
Key factors for Game 7
Houston`s strategic use of double-big lineups featuring Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun has been a defining characteristic of this series. Golden State managed to win Game 4 despite being outscored by 18 points during the 22.5 minutes Adams and Sengun shared the court. In Game 5, with their offense clicking, Udoka used the pairing less, but they were still plus-eight in 13 minutes.
The fourth quarter of Game 6 represented the most significant stretch yet for the Adams-Sengun tandem, who played together for nearly the entire period before both teams emptied their benches. Houston`s double-bigs were plus-nine in that critical span. Notably, Udoka showed confidence by not immediately substituting Adams when Steve Kerr intentionally fouled him, a change from Game 4 where Adams was subbed out and only returned in the final minutes when off-ball fouls draw technicals.
Adams converted 9 of 16 free throws from intentional fouls, while Sengun secured two offensive rebounds on Adams` misses. This resulted in 13 total points on eight possessions for those sequences, translating to an impressive 162.5 offensive rating.
Adding to the Warriors` challenge is Houston`s ability to utilize Adams, who is blocking shots at a career-best rate this series, alongside Sengun in a hybrid defense designed to keep a defender consistently in Stephen Curry`s space. Despite this, Curry still scored 29 points and hit six 3-pointers in Game 6 but shot just 9-of-23 overall and committed five turnovers.
While Udoka has successfully identified effective new lineup combinations, the Warriors` coaching staff appears to be struggling to find their optimal five-man unit. Kerr started Gary Payton II in Game 6 to enhance point-of-attack defense on VanVleet. However, Payton doesn`t pose the same 3-point shooting threat as Brandin Podziemski, allowing the Rockets to defend him differently. Aside from Curry, Golden State`s other four starters combined to shoot a poor 3-of-18 from beyond the arc, highlighting their offensive struggles.