Just a few days after the official start of free agency negotiations and a week past the draft, the NBA circuit is already buzzing with its characteristic seasonal flurry. We`ve seen nine-figure surprises, intriguing trades, a record-setting contract, and drama surrounding multi-season MVPs.
To make sense of this intense period, let`s identify the major winners and losers of the summer so far. Keep in mind that as the offseason progresses, these designations could still shift, as players like Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, and Karl-Anthony Towns have been traded as late as September or October in recent years.
For now, here are the teams, trends, and transactions that stand out. We`ll start with the clearest winner of the 2025 offseason.
Winner: Houston Rockets
Even without further moves, the Houston Rockets would have secured an offseason victory purely through the Kevin Durant trade. The acquisition of Durant represented such a decisive win for the Rockets, providing a perfect solution to their most significant weakness without sacrificing any of their top young talents or future draft assets in return.
But the Rockets didn`t stop after adding Durant. They also signed Dorian Finney-Smith to a four-year, $53 million contract, brought in Clint Capela on a three-year, $21.5 million pact, secured Fred VanVleet on a newly manageable deal, extended Jabari Smith Jr. reasonably, and re-signed Jae’Sean Tate, Aaron Holiday, and Jeff Green to complete the roster.
The cumulative effect of this activity is a deep, versatile squad capable of defeating opponents in multiple ways: through defense, rebounding, size, physicality, youth, experience, and Durant`s unparalleled shot-making. The Rockets are now challenging the Oklahoma City Thunder for the unofficial title of the league`s deepest team.
More importantly, the Rockets are challenging the Thunder for a more significant title, positioning themselves as the second-best team in the Western Conference and, consequently, the primary threat to Oklahoma City`s bid to become the first repeat champion since Durant`s Warriors in 2017 and 2018.
This roster isn`t without minor flaws. Houston will be heavily reliant on VanVleet, who is now in his 30s and potentially past his prime, due to a lack of backcourt depth. A significant second-year jump from number three pick Reed Sheppard, who averaged only 4.4 points in 12.6 minutes as a rookie, would be a crucial development. The frontcourt rotation might also face congestion if established players feel their minutes are insufficient, with Capela joining Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams potentially pushing Houston towards more frequent, and not always optimal, two-center alignments.
However, these are minor points against an otherwise stacked roster. The Rockets skillfully managed their salary cap, replaced Dillon Brooks with Finney-Smith – perhaps less comfortable as a primary perimeter defender than Brooks, but this is mitigated by the presence of Amen Thompson and Tari Eason – and upgraded from the inefficient Jalen Green to Durant, one of the most efficient perimeter scorers in NBA history. This exemplifies how to dominate the offseason.
Loser: Los Angeles Lakers
Immediately following the surprising blockbuster trade that brought Luka Doncic to the Lakers, the team was in desperate need of a center. They had lost their previous starter, Anthony Davis, in the Doncic deal, and Doncic`s playstyle is a perfect match for a dynamic pick-and-roll partner. This is precisely why Daniel Gafford excelled after joining Doncic in Dallas, and why Dereck Lively II made an immediate impact as a rookie on the same team.
Thus, it was unsurprising when the Lakers reached an agreement in principle to trade for a young, athletic center right after acquiring Doncic. But when they voided the Mark Williams deal due to a failed physical, the Lakers were left with their existing roster. Jaxson Hayes started four playoff games but clearly lacked coach JJ Redick`s confidence, playing single-digit minutes in all four contests before being benched entirely as Redick shifted to a small-ball approach for the Lakers` final loss.
At minimum, after their disappointing playoff exit, finding a center seemed like the Lakers` top priority this summer. Yet, just a few days into the free agency frenzy, all their prime targets signed elsewhere, leaving them with Deandre Ayton, who unexpectedly became available after a buyout with the Portland Trail Blazers.
Ayton does not profile as an ideal short-term fix for a championship contender, nor does he appear to be a strong long-term fit alongside Doncic. The 2018 first overall pick – coincidentally, two picks ahead of Doncic – is neither a true rim runner nor an effective floor spacer, and his performance arguably peaked half a decade ago. Despite consistently impressive box score statistics, leading public advanced metrics generally rate Ayton as a below-average player.
Furthermore, Ayton`s two-year contract with a player option offers minimal upside for the team. If he performs well in Year 1, he will likely opt out, whereas if he fails to impress Redick, he will remain on the team`s payroll for a second season.
This is a precarious situation for the Lakers as they attempt to manage LeBron James`s potential discontent and persuade Doncic to sign a long-term extension later this summer. Currently, little about this roster composition seems compelling enough to secure Doncic`s signature. The Lakers possess an unbalanced rotation heavy on power forwards – Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, Jarred Vanderbilt, and naturally, James – but lacking reliable centers. Their only other notable move besides signing Ayton was replacing Finney-Smith with Jake LaRavia.
Winner: Big-man Depth
A major factor behind the Lakers` rapid failure to find a center is that all viable options were quickly taken. One of the most prominent (and literally largest) themes of the offseason`s first week has been teams doubling down on big men, even if they already seemed well-equipped at the position.
The Rockets signed Capela despite having Sengun and Adams. The San Antonio Spurs added Luke Kornet even with Victor Wembanyama already there. The Denver Nuggets traded for Jonas Valanciunas to serve as the best backup Nikola Jokic has had in years. The LA Clippers brought in Brook Lopez to support Ivica Zubac. The New York Knicks signed Guerschon Yabusele to play alongside Towns and Mitchell Robinson. The New Orleans Pelicans acquired Kevon Looney to share minutes with promising youngster Yves Missi. The Toronto Raptors extended Jakob Poeltl and signed Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Milwaukee Bucks signed Myles Turner and Jericho Sims, in addition to extending Bobby Portis.
The inclination towards double-big lineups was also evident on draft night, as two non-playoff teams in the West established long-term pairings. The Trail Blazers selected 7-foot-1 prospect Yang Hansen to join 7-foot-2 second-year center Donovan Clingan, while the Phoenix Suns, in quick succession, traded for veteran Mark Williams and drafted Khaman Maluach, the first center taken off the board.
Other contenders invested in maintaining their established big-man rotations. The Minnesota Timberwolves re-signed Naz Reid and Julius Randle for a combined $225 million; adding Rudy Gobert, whose extension starts this season, brings the Timberwolves` commitment to their bigs to $334.5 million, even after trading Towns. Similarly, the Memphis Grizzlies retained Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama for a combined $292.5 million.
Furthermore, after the Thunder started Isaiah Hartenstein – a significant free agent acquisition last summer – and Chet Holmgren together en route to a title, they extended third big Jaylin Williams this week. And the Dallas Mavericks have embraced size since acquiring Davis; until Kyrie Irving recovers from injury, their five best players are naturally power forwards or centers: Davis, newly extended Gafford, Lively, P.J. Washington, and first overall draft pick Cooper Flagg.
This leaguewide emphasis on big men could set up interesting stylistic contrasts against the few teams not following suit, such as the Lakers and Golden State Warriors. But taken collectively, these transactions underscore a clear message: after a decade of exploring small-ball concepts, big men are definitively back in vogue – not just MVP-caliber players like Jokic and Joel Embiid, but players of all roles and skill levels, provided they possess the requisite size.
Loser: Opponents Trying to Score Inside Against the Spurs
Here`s an insightful statistic about one of the league`s new big-man duos. According to tracking data, among 166 players who have defended at least 300 shot attempts within 5 feet over the past two seasons, Kornet ranks fifth (52.2%) and Wembanyama ranks sixth (52.3%) in the lowest field goal percentage allowed.
Kornet was highlighted as an underrated free agent target, and the Spurs clearly recognized his value, signing the journeyman center to a four-year, $41 million deal. He is set to be an excellent backup behind Wembanyama. However, don`t discount their potential effectiveness playing together; lineups featuring both Wemby and Kornet shouldn`t face significant offensive spacing issues as Wembanyama often operates on the perimeter, and defensively, they would form a devastating tandem.
Winner: Denver Nuggets
For years, Denver`s starting five has consistently been among the league`s elite units. Last season maintained this trend, even with Christian Braun replacing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who departed in free agency. The Nuggets` starters posted a net rating of plus-10.6 in the regular season and plus-11.3 in the playoffs. Even against the formidable Thunder in the second round, that specific lineup was plus-10.3 per 100 possessions.
Yet, this success didn`t prevent the first significant alteration to Denver`s long-standing core, which had been together since before their 2022-23 championship run. The Nuggets traded Michael Porter Jr. and an unprotected 2032 first-round pick for Cam Johnson, an ideal fit for Denver`s offensive system. Johnson is a reliable knockdown shooter (39% from three for his career) on high volume, and while he lacks Porter`s height, he`s a more dynamic ball handler off the dribble.
Moreover, the financial flexibility gained from this swap – as Porter is projected to earn approximately $17 million more than Johnson next season – provided the Nuggets with the necessary room for further roster enhancements.
First, they signed Bruce Brown Jr., another player identified as an underrated free agent target and someone with a proven track record of thriving alongside Jokic. Subsequently, they traded Dario Saric, who played only 16 games for Denver (none in the playoffs) after an ill-advised free agent signing last summer, for Jonas Valanciunas, a remarkably qualified backup big man who averaged a robust 20 points and 15 rebounds per 36 minutes last season, consistent with his career-best numbers.
The days of Denver significantly struggling defensively when Jokic heads to the bench, replaced by players like Zeke Nnaji and veteran DeAndre Jordan, should now be over.
Finally, the Nuggets signed Tim Hardaway Jr., a willing and capable shooter (36% from three for his career), who, along with Johnson, should help improve the Nuggets` three-point attempt rate, which ranked 30th last season.
In essence, the Nuggets lost two players from last season`s playoff rotation, Porter and Russell Westbrook. However, they acquired four players capable of contributing to the rotation. Denver should now comfortably be able to go nine or ten deep, with a projected starting five including Brown, Hardaway, and Valanciunas, plus the possibility of a young player like Julian Strawther making a leap.
The Nuggets came closer than any other team in the West to derailing the Thunder`s championship path this past spring. And their roster for the 2025-26 season appears significantly stronger than the 2024-25 version.
Loser: Milwaukee Bucks
In fairness to the Milwaukee Bucks, their classification here as `losers` is less about their specific actions this week and more a reflection of a disastrous two-year stretch for the franchise. This challenging period began with the hiring of short-lived coach Adrian Griffin and the trade for Damian Lillard, culminating this Tuesday with the decision to waive Lillard and stretch the remaining $113 million on his contract.
The Bucks found themselves in an impossible position as soon as Lillard suffered an Achilles rupture in April. They possess very few valuable assets beyond Giannis Antetokounmpo: no promising young talent, no control over their future draft picks, and limited financial flexibility to upgrade the roster around their two-time MVP. They did manage to create some short-term financial breathing room by stretching Lillard`s deal and trading Pat Connaughton, which allowed Milwaukee to acquire center Myles Turner from the Indiana Pacers – but this came at an extreme long-term cost.
Lillard`s salary will now account for $22.5 million against the Bucks` cap for each of the next five seasons. For perspective, $22.5 million is approximately what Cam Johnson is set to earn in upcoming seasons. (It`s also roughly what Kyle Kuzma will earn over the next couple of years, suggesting the Bucks arguably have two roster gaps equivalent to that salary slot on their cap sheet).
This might be a justifiable expense if the Bucks were considered strong contenders for the 2025-26 title. However, while fringe contenders in the Eastern Conference might harbor hope for next year, and despite Turner serving as a younger replacement for Brook Lopez alongside Antetokounmpo, it`s difficult to envision a team starting Kevin Porter Jr. at point guard, and possessing such porous perimeter defense as Milwaukee`s, realistically competing for a championship.
Milwaukee`s front office deserves some credit for its bold approach in pursuing win-now moves to maximize Antetokounmpo`s prime, a strategy that dates back to the trade for Jrue Holiday and the subsequent championship. But boldness alone will not secure more playoff victories for Milwaukee; only high-quality NBA players can achieve that. And even after this week`s significant moves, the Bucks still appear to lack sufficient talent.
Winner: Atlanta Hawks
Teams spearheaded by a smaller point guard face inherent challenges advancing deep into the playoffs, as their primary offensive engine inevitably becomes a defensive target. The most effective strategy to counteract this inherent vulnerability is the approach demonstrated by the Pacers, who surrounded Tyrese Haliburton with high-caliber defenders at every other position en route to Game 7 of the Finals.
The Hawks are actively attempting to replicate this model, having spent the past two summers building a formidable roster around their star point guard, Trae Young. This offseason, they made an opportunistic trade for Kristaps Porzingis, a player with injury history but undeniable ceiling-raising potential, who became available due to the Boston Celtics` need to shed salaries. (In the process, the Hawks also offloaded Terance Mann`s unfavorable contract – which they perhaps shouldn`t have acquired at the trade deadline – at the cost of a late first-round pick). The Hawks also emerged victorious in the pursuit of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and they replaced Caris LeVert, who departed for Detroit, with Luke Kennard, who holds the highest career three-point percentage (43.8%) among active players.
Atlanta`s rotation now provides Trae Young with Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Dyson Daniels; long, athletic wings in Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, and the 2024 first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher; and capable defensive centers in Porzingis and Onyeka Okongwu. The Hawks have not finished a season with a defensive ranking better than 18th during Young`s career, but as long as they avoid excessive minutes with a Young-Kennard backcourt pairing, they have a legitimate chance to be an above-average defensive team this season.
And none of these transactions even represent the Hawks` best move this offseason. That distinction belongs to the absolute heist Atlanta executed on draft night, where they charged the New Orleans Pelicans an exorbitant price to move up just 10 spots, from number 23 to 13. Yet, the Pelicans paid it! And now the Hawks hold the unprotected rights to the better pick between the Pelicans and Bucks next summer.
Given the Bucks` ongoing uncertainty and the Pelicans` potentially weak standing in a loaded Western Conference, that pick is heavily favored to land in the lottery. For reference, according to draft value charts, the difference in value between pick 13 and 23 is equivalent to approximately the 28th pick, making the Hawks almost certain winners of this trade.
Forget their annual appearance in the play-in tournament; in a wide-open Eastern Conference, with all these significant upgrades, the Hawks could realistically ascend towards a top-four seed next season. The loss of Larry Nance Jr. – who provides a surprisingly effective bench boost for Cleveland – stands as the sole minor detraction from the Hawks` otherwise stellar summer.
Loser: New Orleans Pelicans
If the Atlanta Hawks earned their `winner` status primarily by masterfully executing a draft day fleecing, then the team they outmaneuvered must logically appear on the `losers` list. This transaction represents a genuinely perplexing decision by their new front office, led by Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver, which seemed to fundamentally misinterpret the team`s current standing and roster composition.
The Pelicans finished 14th in the Western Conference last season, and while they are highly likely to improve upon a 21-61 record with better health in 2025-26, it`s challenging to identify many teams they will realistically surpass in the standings. Even if the Suns decline, the 13th-place Spurs, 12th-place Trail Blazers, and 10th-place Mavericks all made improvements this summer, and New Orleans would need to overtake all three (or two plus another higher team) just to reach the lower tier of the play-in tournament.
Should the Pelicans fail to reach the playoffs, they will convey a lottery pick to the Hawks. They took this significant risk to draft a prospect, Derik Queen, who possesses star potential but doesn`t seem like an optimal fit alongside incumbent star Zion Williamson. Both players are somewhat undersized bigs who exhibit similar strengths and weaknesses. Questions remain: Can lineups featuring Williamson and Queen provide adequate floor spacing? Can they effectively defend opponents?
One might not be so critical of the Pelicans for a single draft-night trade – regardless of how questionable – if it were their only misstep this offseason. However, the new front office`s other moves also appear disjointed and lack a clear strategic direction.
New Orleans also traded CJ McCollum and Kelly Olynyk for Jordan Poole and Saddiq Bey (along with swapping second-round picks with Washington). Bey could potentially assist the Pelicans after missing all of last season due to an ACL tear, but the core of this move was New Orleans essentially choosing Poole over McCollum. While Poole is eight years younger, advanced statistics generally consider their impact roughly equivalent, and Poole is signed for an additional year at $34 million per season.
Furthermore, the Pelicans` major free agent signing was Kevon Looney, who remains a significant question mark playing outside of Golden State`s unique system for the first time. It`s particularly difficult to envision how this offense will generate proper spacing with multiple non-shooters sharing the court; Looney, Williamson, Queen, and starting center Yves Missi have collectively made only 51 three-pointers over 922 career games (combining college stats for Queen and NBA stats for the others).