With free agency approaching on June 30th, NBA teams are actively preparing. Front offices are currently focused on evaluating college prospects in March Madness and strategizing for the upcoming free agency and trade period.
While major superstar trades might be less likely, several intriguing questions need answers. This week`s NBA analysis dives into the offseason center market, the Minnesota Timberwolves` potential offseason moves, and complex decisions facing restricted free agents.
Minnesota Timberwolves` Summer Plans
Bontemps: Despite being above the second luxury tax apron and lacking salary cap space, the Minnesota Timberwolves are a team to watch this offseason. They could have three prominent unrestricted free agents: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid, and Julius Randle.
Alexander-Walker is expected to test free agency, while Reid and Randle have player options. These situations will require significant decisions for Minnesota.
Windhorst: The ownership situation with the Timberwolves remains unresolved. While Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez won their arbitration case to purchase the team, the sale hasn`t been finalized. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver mentioned ongoing considerations by current owner Glen Taylor, adding uncertainty.
This is crucial as the Timberwolves already have $145 million in committed salaries for next season before addressing their free agents. Re-signing Alexander-Walker, Reid, and Randle while staying under the $207 million second apron will be challenging, depending on ownership`s willingness to pay luxury tax. Historically, the Timberwolves have been reluctant to pay luxury tax, but this season they are facing a significant tax bill.
Another factor is Timberwolves` team president Tim Connelly`s contract. He has an opt-out clause this summer due to the ownership uncertainty. While Lore intends to extend Connelly`s contract once he gains control, Connelly`s decision remains pending.
Bontemps: Regardless of the ownership and front office situations, decisions on Alexander-Walker, Reid, and Randle must be made.
Alexander-Walker is poised to secure a lucrative contract, potentially around the full midlevel exception (approximately four years and $60 million), given his strong performance and defensive skills.
Reid and Randle are generally expected to remain with Minnesota. They could either opt into their existing contracts (Reid at $15 million, Randle at $29 million) and extend, or opt out and negotiate new deals.
Key Player Options: LeBron, Harden, Irving
Windhorst: Three veteran Hall of Famers have significant player options: LeBron James, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving.
LeBron James has a $53 million option. He could opt in or sign a new one-year max deal for continued flexibility. Last summer, James considered taking less money to help the Lakers improve their roster, but ultimately took his full salary. With Luka Doncic now on the team, a discount from James could provide the Lakers with more financial flexibility, potentially allowing them to use their full midlevel exception and explore trades using expiring contracts and draft assets.
Bontemps: Kyrie Irving has a $42.9 million player option with the Dallas Mavericks. Despite a recent ACL injury expected to sideline him for a significant portion of next season, the Mavericks have indicated he remains a key part of their future.
The question is the structure of his new deal, as Dallas needs to manage salary cap implications and address the playmaking gap while Irving is out. If Irving opts into his current deal, the Mavericks are already facing luxury tax with limited options to add a capable ball-handler.
Windhorst: James Harden, after declining a large extension with the Nets in 2021, has taken pay cuts in recent years with Philadelphia and the Clippers on short-term deals. He opted into the second year of his current deal with the Clippers, betting on himself to perform well.
Having made the All-Star team, Harden is likely to opt out and seek a raise. The Clippers, aiming for 2026 cap space flexibility, may need to adjust their plans to offer Harden a new multi-year contract. With Norman Powell`s contract nearing expiration, the Clippers might need to spend significantly regardless.
Free Agent Center Market: Reid, Lopez, Turner
Bontemps: Beyond Reid, centers Brook Lopez and Myles Turner are also key free agents this summer. However, the Bucks and Pacers face financial constraints that could complicate re-signing Lopez and Turner.
If Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, and Kevin Porter Jr. opt into their Bucks contracts, Milwaukee will have limited space to retain Lopez while staying under the luxury tax. The Pacers face a similar situation with Turner.
Windhorst: Sources indicate the Pacers want to re-sign Turner, a long-tenured player for the franchise. However, they are projected to be significantly below the luxury tax without Turner and are unlikely to enter luxury tax next season. Keeping Turner will require careful negotiation and financial maneuvering.
Bontemps: The center market overall is depressed. Few teams have significant cap space, and none are expected to heavily pursue veteran centers. Lopez and Turner`s leverage might be limited to taking the full midlevel exception elsewhere, which would mean a pay cut. This could lead to tougher negotiations with the Pacers and Bucks as teams face increased salary restrictions under the new CBA.
Restricted Free Agents Face Limited Leverage
Windhorst: It`s a challenging year for restricted free agents.
A veteran agent noted the limited cap space across the league, with only the Brooklyn Nets having substantial room, and their rebuilding focus may limit their spending in free agency. This lack of competition reduces leverage for restricted free agents.
The Nets are expected to have considerable cap space but might prefer to utilize it via trades rather than free agent signings, maintaining flexibility for future moves.
Without significant threat of offer sheets, restricted free agents like Josh Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga, Santi Aldama, and Cam Thomas have limited negotiating power.
A prominent agent described the situation as “no leverage,” preparing clients for a “free agent recession” this summer. They suggest waiting for next year when the cap increases and teams adjust to new spending rules, potentially creating a better market.
Bontemps: Jonathan Kuminga is a particularly interesting case. He was discussed in trade talks for Kevin Durant, but the Warriors value him highly. However, his fit alongside Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green, given perimeter shooting concerns, could complicate offering him a large contract extension, especially after extension talks stalled before the season.
Windhorst: Josh Giddey`s situation is also noteworthy. His role has expanded with the Bulls, showing improved performance since February. However, the Bulls` recent large contract for Patrick Williams, who then underperformed, might influence their approach to Giddey`s restricted free agency.