Even as the 2023 NBA offseason concluded, the freshly implemented collective bargaining agreement (CBA) was already facing considerable criticism. Former player Austin Rivers notably remarked on the perceived disparity, stating, “You either make $50 million or $2 million. It`s a joke, bro. I can`t tell you how many mid-level guys are signing for the vet minimum around the NBA.”
The 2024 offseason brought further scrutiny with the introduction of the salary cap`s stringent second apron, which severely limited how high-spending teams could acquire players from outside their existing roster. A year later, Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green intensified the debate, claiming the new CBA had extinguished the excitement of the yearly free agency period.
“I`m sitting in my mancave having a conversation with my wife. Baffled at the fact that NBA free agency is over,” Green posted on Threads in July. “Quite frankly it never really started. The level of anticipation leading up to July 1st was as exciting as the fireworks on the 4th… One can only point to the `New CBA` and the 2nd apron (hard cap) for absolutely putting an end to Free Agency as we once knew it.”
Is Green`s assessment accurate? And are other significant offseason patterns likely to persist? To address these questions—including concerns about the shrinking middle class of players and the status of restricted free agency—we delve into a “fact or fiction” analysis.
The second apron has ruined free agency.
Verdict: Fiction (for now)
Draymond Green`s observation holds some validity. Think back to the 2010 offseason, when star players like LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, Amar`e Stoudemire, and Carlos Boozer generated immense suspense with their free agency choices. Similarly, Kevin Durant (2016) and Kawhi Leonard (2019) later captivated fans with their highly anticipated decisions.
While not entirely eliminating that peak level of anticipation, two key changes in the current CBA have undeniably diluted it. As of the day following the NBA Finals, teams are now permitted to negotiate new contracts with their own free agents. This shift meant that many prominent free agents this year, including Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Julius Randle, Naz Reid, Fred VanVleet, Sam Merrill, and Bobby Portis, re-signed with their teams and were off the market before June 30. Last year, Pascal Siakam and Malik Monk were also among those who re-signed early.
Additionally, changes to rookie and veteran extension rules play a role. The option to sign extensions for larger amounts and longer terms has led players to prioritize guaranteed money over the uncertainties of unrestricted free agency. Under the new rules, players in the final year of their initial first-round contract can now sign extensions for five seasons instead of four, even if their first-year salary is below 25% of the salary cap. Jabari Smith`s June extension exemplified this, following similar deals for Jalen Johnson, Trey Murphy III, Alperen Sengun, and Jalen Suggs in 2024. The first year of the current CBA saw an unprecedented 14 players sign rookie extensions.
This summer, players like Jalen Brunson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Lauri Markkanen, Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, Jimmy Butler, Rudy Gobert, Brandon Ingram, Derrick White, Ivica Zubac, and Alex Caruso could have all entered free agency. Instead, they each opted for long-term extensions.
“The mechanism of the collective bargaining agreement was very clear: We are trying to give incumbent teams an advantage to draft, develop, and keep players,” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver commented during summer league. “It doesn`t mean there`s no free agency, but in many cases, you have situations where players are electing to stay in those markets. So, I don`t necessarily think that`s a bad thing.”
Over the last three years, 51 veterans have signed extensions—a number expected to rise to 53 if Luka Doncic and De`Aaron Fox sign their extensions this month—with 26 of those occurring during the 2024-25 season alone. By contrast, only 74 players signed veteran extensions across the entire period from 2017 to 2023.
Teams are taking advantage of the stretch provision.
Verdict: Fact
A leading agent recently posed a pertinent question one morning before summer league games kicked off in Las Vegas: “How many teams are projected to have significant cap space in the 2026 offseason?” Ordinarily, the answer would have been eight: the Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Lakers, LA Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz, and Washington Wizards. However, as the Milwaukee Bucks demonstrated on July 1st, predicting teams with available cap space can often prove to be a futile endeavor.
Bucks GM Jon Horst explained his team`s strategy to The Athletic in July, stating, “Maximizing Giannis` prime, our opportunities to win, I feel like that`s our responsibility always. So it was really a now versus future decision.” He was referring to the team`s decision to waive and stretch the $113 million owed to All-Star Damian Lillard over the subsequent five seasons.
The Bucks also bought out the $8.1 million owed to guard Vasilije Micic, whose $2 million salary was similarly stretched, though over two fewer seasons than Lillard`s. These maneuvers allowed Milwaukee to create the cap room needed to sign Myles Turner to a four-year, $108 million deal.
Milwaukee wasn`t alone in utilizing this cap-clearing method. The Memphis Grizzlies stretched Cole Anthony`s $11.1 million post-buyout salary over the next three seasons. However, instead of using the created space to sign a free agent, they chose to renegotiate and extend forward Jaren Jackson Jr.`s contract.
The “stretch provision,” which allows teams to create financial flexibility by waiving a player and distributing their remaining salary cap hit over a longer period, is not a new rule. Since 2013 and until the recent offseason, 54 players, totaling $320 million in salary, had been waived and stretched. Before Lillard, Nicolas Batum`s $8.9 million per-year cap hit with Charlotte was the largest for a stretched player.
However, in just the past month, $223 million in salary has been stretched – an amount only $100 million shy of the total stretched from 2013 to 2024. Teams are now readily accepting eight-figure cap hits in the long term to gain immediate cap space, or, as seen with the Phoenix Suns, to escape severe financial constraints.
Just two weeks after Lillard`s waiver, the Suns bought out Bradley Beal and are expected to stretch his $97 million over the next five seasons. (Teams have until August 29 to utilize this provision, provided the cumulative stretched amount for all players doesn`t exceed 15% of the salary cap.) Under this strategy, Phoenix will incur a $19.4 million cap hit for the next five seasons. Crucially, this move will allow them to drop below both the first and second apron. This grants them the ability to aggregate contracts in trades, utilize more than 100% of their traded player exception, and ensures their 2033 first-round pick is no longer at risk of being frozen. Ultimately, the stretch provision is projected to save the Suns over $200 million in salary and luxury tax penalties this season.
The middle class of free agents has been squeezed out of the market.
Verdict: Fiction
“The data does not support this notion,” commented Adam Silver during summer league. “If you look at sort of minimum, lower-paid players, high-paid players and there`s some middle group that you call the middle class, if anything, it`s slightly up from where we were in the last few years of the old collective bargaining agreement.”
Silver`s remarks pertained to the 84% of players who signed contracts that were neither veteran minimums nor first-round rookie deals, with first-year salaries ranging from $4 million to $20 million. This represents an 8% increase compared to the previous offseason.
Among the players in this group, 19 changed teams during free agency. This 32% increase from last summer can be attributed to several factors: teams utilizing the non-tax mid-level exception more frequently (rising from five to ten instances), expanded trade regulations, and the ability to acquire free agents using previously generated trade exceptions. For instance, Atlanta acquired Nickeil Alexander-Walker via a sign-and-trade using a past trade exception, then leveraged a portion of their $14.1 million non-tax mid-level exception to sign Luke Kennard.
“There`s a misconception that players aren`t being compensated the same ways they have in the past. That`s not true,” stated former Players Association President CJ McCollum to Front Office Sports recently. “Guys are making more money than they ever have. The middle class is making more money than they ever have before.”
Since the 2017-18 season, the NBA`s salary cap has expanded significantly, growing from $99 million to $154.7 million, while overall player salaries have surged from $3.3 billion to $5.4 billion.
Restricted free agents Josh Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga, Quentin Grimes and Cam Thomas are at a disadvantage.
Verdict: Fact and Fiction
Indeed, Chicago, Golden State, Philadelphia, and Brooklyn currently possess considerable leverage in contract discussions. However, the reality is that, apart from Brooklyn (Cam Thomas` current team), no other team has more than $14.1 million available to sign any of these four players to an offer sheet. Even if the market were flush with cap space, only two restricted free agents—Deandre Ayton and Matisse Thybulle—have signed offer sheets since 2022.
The prospects for Kuminga and Grimes are further hindered by first apron concerns should a sign-and-trade be considered. Since their outgoing salary only counts as 50%, the Warriors and 76ers would likely face a hard cap restriction in such a transaction.
Nevertheless, restricted free agency is not a novel concept. For years, players who chose not to sign rookie extensions have managed to navigate this strict rule, but often only by compromising on the terms of their subsequent contracts. Among the 14 former first-round picks who received a qualifying offer since 2023 and subsequently signed a contract, merely three (Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley, and Cameron Johnson) secured a starting salary exceeding $20 million in their first season.
Kuminga could have been the fourth, but as reported by Shams Charania and Anthony Slater, he declined a two-year, $45 million contract offer from the Warriors, which included a team option.
The second apron has dissuaded teams from including bonuses in contracts.
Verdict: Fact
Recall the situation in March when the injury-plagued Dallas Mavericks were unable to sign a 15th player because they were just $50,000 below the first apron? This was due to $4 million in bonuses paid to Kyrie Irving, Caleb Martin, and P.J. Washington counting against their salary cap. Dallas` predicament served as a clear warning to other teams this offseason.
Of the over 150 players who signed new contracts this offseason, none have performance bonuses included in their agreements. Notably, this list includes Kyrie Irving and Minnesota Timberwolves forward Julius Randle, both of whom had bonuses in their previous contracts but not in their current ones. In contrast, 23 free agents signed contracts with incentives in 2023 and 2024.
This reduction in incentives also extends to first-round extensions. During the 2022 and 2023 offseasons, 11 out of 26 players who signed extensions included a bonus in their contracts. However, since that period, only the Warriors` Moses Moody has one.
Tyler Herro`s extension with the Miami Heat, signed before the 2023 CBA was implemented, serves as a stark illustration of why teams are now resisting negotiating bonuses. Herro`s contract includes five potential bonuses—such as for MVP, All-NBA, and Defensive Player of the Year honors—which cost Miami $2.5 million against both the first and second aprons.
The current CBA penalizes teams that draft well.
Verdict: Fact, unless you plan ahead
CJ McCollum recently offered an insightful remark regarding the new CBA`s influence on the NBA draft.
“You shouldn`t be punished for drafting well,” McCollum stated. “Oklahoma City is going through [a situation] right now where you have to pay a lot of players who are really good. And you draft them, you shouldn`t be punished for drafting well. You should be able to pay and keep and retain the players you`ve drafted. And when you have those windows to where you really have a chance to compete and win a championship, you shouldn`t have such severe restrictions.”
McCollum`s comment presents several points for consideration. Firstly, his statement holds true when considering the financial burden teams incur if players on maximum rookie extensions achieve All-NBA, Defensive Player of the Year, or MVP honors in their fourth season. For instance, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons saw their salary obligations increase by an additional $8 million this season (totaling $45 million over the contract`s duration) due to Evan Mobley being named Defensive Player of the Year and Cade Cunningham earning All-NBA honors.
A counter-strategy, exemplified by the Oklahoma City Thunder`s approach with Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, involves structuring extensions to protect the team financially if either player achieves significant regular season accolades. While Paolo Banchero`s $239 million extension with the Orlando Magic includes a 30% escalator (potentially increasing to $287 million) if he earns All-NBA, MVP, or Defensive Player of the Year recognition, Holmgren`s contract lacks such a provision. Jalen Williams` salary for next season can increase to Banchero`s level, but only if he achieves MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, or All-NBA First Team status. Lesser escalators exist for Second and Third Team honors.
General Manager Sam Presti and the Thunder front office have also demonstrated foresight by aligning their financial strategy and accumulating draft assets with future extensions in mind. Over the last two seasons, Oklahoma City has signed players like Isaiah Hartenstein, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, and Ajay Mitchell to contracts structured with declining salaries, team options, or partial guarantees.
The Thunder show no signs of deviating from this long-term strategy. They possess a significant surplus of draft capital, including 13 first-round picks and 16 second-rounders over the next seven years, with as many as four first-round picks projected for the 2026 draft alone.