When Shai Gilgeous-Alexander recently signed his four-year supermax contract extension, he wasn`t just marking the conclusion of a remarkable season with a substantial new salary. The NBA MVP and Finals MVP came remarkably close to a financial milestone never before seen in the league.
In the final year of Gilgeous-Alexander`s new contract, the 2030-31 season, he is projected to earn $79 million. This equates to more than $963,000 per game, bringing him near the NBA`s first contract worth one million dollars per contest.
Even if Gilgeous-Alexander doesn`t quite hit that specific number per game, the league`s highest-paid athletes continue to see their earnings increase dramatically. When former MLB pitcher Nolan Ryan became the first professional athlete to sign a contract paying a million dollars per year in 1979, it was headline news in the sports world.
Let`s explore the key drivers behind the rapid escalation of NBA salaries, identify the leading candidates likely to break this next financial barrier, and discuss the broader implications for star player compensation and the league as a whole.
Why Superstar Salaries Are Skyrocketing
Salaries at the top tier of the NBA have surged primarily due to two significant factors: the introduction of the supermax extension (officially known as the `designated veteran extension`) and a consistently rising salary cap.
The 2017 collective bargaining agreement established the supermax contract tier. Players with seven to eight years of league experience who have remained with their original team and met specific performance criteria (like All-NBA selections) are eligible for extensions starting at 35% of the salary cap. Gilgeous-Alexander was the 14th player to sign such a deal.
The supermax is particularly lucrative because of `basketball inflation,` which has significantly outpaced general economic inflation. A decade ago, the salary cap was around $63 million, which would be roughly $85 million today adjusted for national inflation. However, the 2024-25 salary cap hit $141 million – a much larger increase than expected based on general trends.
These factors have combined to push the league`s top salaries higher and faster than ever before. And they are set to continue climbing rapidly with the introduction of the NBA`s new television deal next season, which injects a massive amount of new revenue into the league.
Last summer, the NBA and its television partners finalized an 11-year agreement valued at $76 billion, or nearly $7 billion per season. In comparison, the previous TV deal, which concluded after the 2024-25 Finals, was worth $24 billion over nine years, averaging almost $2.7 billion per season.
Effectively, the new national broadcast rights deal will provide the NBA with approximately 2.6 times more revenue per season than the one it replaced.
This substantial cash inflow will significantly impact the salary cap and, consequently, supermax contracts. The last time the NBA saw a major increase in national TV money, the salary cap jumped by 34% in a single summer, allowing teams like the Golden State Warriors space to add a player like Kevin Durant. To avoid a repeat of such a drastic leap, the new CBA includes `cap smoothing` measures, limiting maximum annual cap increases to 10%.
The salary cap is indeed set to increase by 10% next season, which will also raise the starting salary for supermax deals by 10%. For the 2026-27 season, however, the NBA projects a slightly lower increase of 7%, partly due to challenges facing regional sports networks and their impact on local TV revenue.
Even if increases aren`t as dramatic as a one-time 34% jump, consistent 7% or 10% rises will compound over several years, leading to a similar overall effect league-wide. To illustrate: The salary cap will exceed $150 million for the first time next season but could potentially double to over $300 million by the 2033-34 season. This demonstrates the powerful effect of compounding growth.
The impact on supermax salaries is remarkable. When Stephen Curry signed the first supermax for the 2017-18 season, the cap was $99 million, meaning his contract started at 35% or $34.7 million.
It took five years for the supermax value to exceed $40 million. However, the pace accelerated as the salary cap climbed: another three years to surpass $50 million, a projected two more years to reach $60 million, and then just one additional projected year to pass $70 million.
Higher starting salaries also result in larger annual raises throughout the term of a supermax contract. The following table shows projected starting and ending salaries for upcoming four-year supermax classes, assuming – for this maximum projection – annual 10% cap increases after the 2026-27 season. For example, SGA`s contract will start at $63.7 million in 2027-28 and reach $79 million by its fourth year. Players signing a supermax after him are projected to cross the $82 million mark, equivalent to $1 million per game, by the end of their deals.
| Starting Season | Year 1 Salary (Millions $) | Year 4 Salary (Millions $) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 57.9 | 71.8 |
| 2027-28 | 63.7 | 79.0 |
| 2028-29 | 70.1 | 86.9 |
| 2029-30 | 77.1 | 95.6 |
| 2030-31 | 84.8 | 105.1 |
| 2031-32 | 93.3 | 115.7 |
| 2032-33 | 102.6 | 127.2 |
This chart relies on certain assumptions: that the supermax structure remains unchanged after the current CBA expires later this decade, and that the league returns to 10% salary cap increases post-2026-27. The latter might not fully materialize. Here is the same chart showing projections with a more conservative assumption of 7% annual increases instead.
| Starting Season | Year 1 Salary (Millions $) | Year 4 Salary (Millions $) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 57.9 | 71.8 |
| 2027-28 | 62.0 | 76.8 |
| 2028-29 | 66.3 | 82.2 |
| 2029-30 | 70.9 | 88.0 |
| 2030-31 | 75.9 | 94.1 |
| 2031-32 | 81.2 | 100.7 |
| 2032-33 | 86.9 | 107.8 |
Leading Candidates for the $1 Million Per Game Mark
Based on these projections, the most likely players to first earn $1 million per game are those eligible to sign supermax deals after Gilgeous-Alexander (drafted in 2018).
From the 2019 draft class, Ja Morant is the only player to have made an All-NBA team, though that was three years ago. It appears improbable that any other player from this class will qualify for a supermax.
However, the 2020 draft class features two prime candidates for supermax eligibility: Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton`s status is uncertain after suffering an Achilles tear that will sideline him for next season. But Edwards has earned consecutive All-NBA Second Team selections, positioning him to potentially sign a supermax in the summer of 2027. Such a contract could be worth up to four years and $345 million, potentially exceeding $82 million annually by its second season.
If not Edwards, two players from the 2021 draft class made their first All-NBA teams last season: Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley. Other promising talents from that draft include Scottie Barnes, Alperen Sengun, and Franz Wagner.
Assuming even modest annual cap increases between now and the 2030s, it`s highly probable that whichever player among Cunningham, Mobley, or their contemporaries qualifies for the supermax will earn over $1 million per game at some point during their contract.
As the salary cap continues its ascent, more and more young players will have the opportunity to secure unprecedented earnings in the league. Recent draftees, such as Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Paolo Banchero from the 2022 class, and Victor Wembanyama and Amen Thompson from the 2023 class, could realistically sign contracts worth over $100 million annually.
Experienced veterans signing shorter extensions could also command nine-figure annual salaries – including Gilgeous-Alexander himself, when he signs his next lucrative extension after his current supermax concludes in 2031. Just recently, Devin Booker of the Phoenix Suns agreed to a new two-year extension worth up to $145 million, which boasts a higher annual value than SGA`s recently signed supermax (though its shorter duration means it won`t reach the same peak total value as SGA`s later years).
Following the Trend of Other Sports
While an NBA player earning a million dollars per game is a first for basketball, other major sports have already reached or surpassed this figure.
In the early 2020s, Major League Baseball pitchers like Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander began earning over $35 million per season. For a starting pitcher making around 32 starts, this translates to over $1 million per game. This offers a useful comparison model for the NBA. Advanced analytics suggest that elite basketball players are worth roughly 20 wins per season, equivalent to about one win every four games. Similarly, top baseball pitchers contribute around eight wins above replacement per year, also roughly one win in every four games they start.
While not a perfect analogy, the impact of the best NBA players on winning a single game is comparable to that of an MLB ace pitcher on the mound. Thus, it`s logical that their salaries would trend similarly.
Other leagues pay even higher per-game rates. In the NFL, 84 players have cap hits of $17 million or more this season, according to Spotrac, meaning they earn at least $1 million per game. The league`s top quarterbacks command nearly $3 million per game – which makes sense given their immense influence on game outcomes and the shorter schedule in the nation`s wealthiest sports league.
The highest individual earnings are seen among elite soccer players recruited by the Saudi Pro League, often with astonishing sums. Cristiano Ronaldo`s annual earnings are rumored to be around $200 million.
However, among traditional team sports not backed by sovereign wealth funds, the NBA is distinctive in its combination of high per-game pay and player volume. MLB pitchers and NFL stars participate in far fewer games than their NBA counterparts. So, even if their per-game earnings can be higher, their total contract values are still significantly below those of the NBA`s supermax elite.
Consider this statistic: For next season, 15 NBA players have cap hits of $50 million or higher, per Spotrac. The NFL, NHL, and MLB combined have only two such contracts: New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto and Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.
Ripple Effects of a Soaring Salary Cap
As star salaries escalate, several potential consequences could emerge in the NBA. Load management, for instance, might become an even more contentious issue, with less tolerance for highly compensated players missing games. The criticism is predictable: “You`re earning over a million dollars tonight, and you`re not even playing?!”
Higher salaries could also influence player decisions. Some NBA stars might begin to prioritize factors other than pure financial gain when making career choices. While athletes naturally desire the maximum possible salary as a status symbol and a boost to their wealth, as the numbers continue to climb, is there a significant, tangible difference in quality of life between earning $75 million per year versus $85 million?
If the difference becomes less impactful at these extreme levels, stars might be more inclined to test the free-agent market instead of automatically re-signing with the team eligible to offer the supermax, knowing they are guaranteed multi-generational wealth regardless. Others might choose to sign for slightly less than the maximum amount to create salary cap flexibility for teammates who would otherwise be restricted by the punitive second apron tax threshold.
Finally, even if player salaries maintain a consistent percentage relative to the salary cap, the sheer magnitude of the figures could provoke new public discussions about whether NBA stars are overpaid. But here`s the crucial point: analytics suggest that players like SGA are already providing value worth nine figures annually, even before their contracts catch up.
Are Superstars Truly Worth $1 Million Per Game?
Last season, factoring in salaries and luxury tax payments, NBA teams collectively spent $5.65 billion, according to Spotrac data. With 1,230 wins available in the regular season, this equates to approximately $4.6 million per win. (There`s a complex debate about incorporating factors like minimum salaries and replacement level players for a more precise `true` cost of a win, but this simple calculation suffices here. Including those factors would likely make stars appear even *more* valuable, not less.)
Multiplying that cost per win by Gilgeous-Alexander`s league-leading estimated value of 20.9 wins last season (per Dunks & Threes), his regular-season value alone is estimated at $96 million. And this figure doesn`t account for leading his team to a championship, increasing franchise ticket and merchandise sales, or boosting the team`s overall value.
As a reference point, when LeBron James rejoined the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2014, Forbes estimated that he “immediately elevate[d] the Cavaliers franchise value by at least $100 million to $150 million.” That figure would undoubtedly be higher today after another decade of inflation.
Given the presence of contract maximums and the disproportionate importance of stars in the NBA, the league`s best players have historically signed contracts that represent a discount relative to their on-court production and overall value. This remains true, even at salaries of $1 million per game or more. In 2016, ESPN`s Kevin Pelton calculated that, considering all factors, “in a world without limits on player salaries, the Cavaliers could easily justify offering James $100 million a year.”
As Pelton noted, that figure was more than the entire salary cap at the time, similar to how Michael Jordan earned more than the Chicago Bulls` entire salary cap in the late 1990s before the introduction of max contract rules. Applying similar math in 2025 suggests top stars` value could exceed $150 million per year – nearly *double* the $1 million per game threshold.
This doesn`t hold true for every player on a max contract; in a system with limits, some players will inevitably exceed their value while others fall short. However, for generational talents – the LeBrons, Jordans, and SGAs of the league – players who fundamentally change a franchise`s trajectory and define the league`s landscape, the conclusion is evident.
A supermax salary reaching $1 million per game, while a significant milestone expected in the coming years, will still represent a bargain relative to the immense value these elite players bring to their teams and the league.