The upcoming NBA free agency period presents a challenging landscape. Only the Brooklyn Nets possess significant salary cap space (over $30 million) to make large offers, while roughly half the league has access to the $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception. To navigate the complexities of this market, we analyze 10 prominent free agents and propose what their next contracts could realistically look like.
Note: This list excludes LeBron James, who is widely expected to opt into his current contract, according to recent reports. If he were to become a free agent, the 40-year-old would be eligible for a maximum three-year, $175 million contract with the Lakers.
(This ranking is based on Kevin Pelton`s top 25 free agent rankings for the 2025 offseason.)
James Harden
LA Clippers | Guard
Free agent ranking: 2
- Best free agent fit: LA Clippers
- The deal I`d offer: Two years, $79 million. (The $41 million second-year salary includes $10 million guaranteed, increasing based on team performance: to $25 million if the Clippers reach the Conference Finals, fully guaranteed if they reach the NBA Finals.)
Following an All-Star and All-NBA season, his first since 2020, Harden is positioned to seek a raise and a multiyear contract. He had a particularly durable season, playing 79 games, his most since 2016-17, and was the only player to achieve 1,500 points, 500 assists, 100 steals, and 50 blocks.
The Clippers front office has indicated preparedness for Harden potentially declining his player option, aiming to reach a mutually beneficial agreement. Given the scarcity of team cap space, Harden`s age (37), and the strategic importance of financial flexibility for the 2026 offseason, the Clippers can structure a creative deal. A first-year salary of $38 million represents an increase from his $36.3 million option while preserving flexibility for the team to utilize the full $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception. The performance-based incentives in the second year benefit both Harden financially and the team by aligning salary guarantees with deep playoff runs.
Kyrie Irving
Dallas Mavericks | Guard
Free agent ranking: 3
- Best free agent fit: Dallas
- The deal I`d offer: Three years, $113 million.
A three-year, $113 million contract would be a beneficial outcome for both Irving and the Mavericks. A proposed $35 million salary for next season is $8 million less than Irving`s player option, offering Dallas increased flexibility to stay below the second apron. This allows the Mavericks access to the $5.7 million tax midlevel exception, which could be used to sign a temporary replacement while Irving recovers from injury. If Irving opts into his $43 million salary, Dallas would be over the second apron and limited to only the veteran minimum exception.
Although the immediate salary for next season would be lower, Irving would gain an additional $70 million in guaranteed money over the life of the contract. Despite tearing his left ACL in March, the 33-year-old remains a key part of the Mavericks` future plans, with the team expressing confidence they will compete for a championship with him back and healthy. Irving`s three-year contract would align with the contract timeline of teammate Anthony Davis.
Julius Randle
Minnesota Timberwolves | Forward
Free agent ranking: 4
- Best free agent fit: Minnesota
- The deal I`d offer: Four years, $121 million. (The fourth year of the contract becomes guaranteed if the Timberwolves reach the NBA Finals in 2026, 2027, or 2028.)
Randle is not a restricted free agent but faces a challenging market if he declines his $30.9 million player option. Nevertheless, a compromise on a new contract between the forward and the Timberwolves is plausible. Randle concluded the regular season strongly, averaging 18.2 points in his final 21 games, and carried that performance into the first two rounds of the playoffs with eight 20-point games and a 23.9 point average. However, his scoring dropped significantly in later games of the conference finals loss.
A new four-year, $121 million contract, replacing the player option with a new salary structure, could benefit both parties. A first-year salary of $27 million would save Minnesota $4 million, helping them retain key reserves like Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker while remaining below the second apron. The Timberwolves` president has expressed optimism about re-signing Randle and others, citing their desire to stay. This contract would be more lucrative than the $117 million extension Randle signed in 2021, providing him with nearly $90 million guaranteed over the next three seasons.
Fred VanVleet
Houston Rockets | Guard
Free agent ranking: 5
- Best free agent fit: Houston
- The deal I`d offer: Three years, $80 million. (The second year has $15 million in guaranteed money, and the third season is a team option.)
VanVleet`s next contract significantly impacts Houston`s financial flexibility in the coming years. The Rockets could exercise his $44.9 million team option by June 29, potentially using him as a trade asset (possibly for Kevin Durant). However, picking up this option would put Houston in the luxury tax and over both aprons.
A more strategic approach involves declining the option and negotiating a new contract with a lower first-year salary but additional years. For instance, a starting salary of $29 million (declining annually) would position Houston $20 million below the second apron. VanVleet would eventually recoup the $44.9 million from his declined option over two seasons. Due to potential extensions for young forwards Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason, the proposed deal for VanVleet includes a partially protected second year and a team option for the third. If Houston were to decline both the option and sign VanVleet, they would have the $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception available.
Myles Turner
Indiana Pacers | Center
Free agent ranking: 6
- Best free agent fit: Indiana
- The deal I`d offer: Three years, $90 million. (The third year of the contract becomes fully guaranteed if Turner is named All-Defensive first-team in 2026 or 2027.)
The Pacers and their longest-tenured player are in a unique contractual situation. Because Turner`s contract was renegotiated and extended in January 2023, he cannot sign another extension before June 30. However, both sides are permitted to negotiate a new contract after the NBA Finals conclude.
Indiana has avoided paying the luxury tax since the 2005-06 season, but recent reports suggest they are willing to enter the tax threshold to retain their starting center. They are currently $20 million below the tax line entering the offseason. A contract starting at $30 million and remaining flat accomplishes multiple goals. Thanks to a recent CBA change, teams pay a less severe tax penalty for being up to $11.4 million over the tax line. A $30 million starting contract for Turner would result in roughly a $16 million penalty after filling out the roster, while keeping Indiana $7 million below the second apron.
Concern exists that a $30 million starting salary for Turner could impact the team`s ability to retain elite depth players like Aaron Nesmith and Bennedict Mathurin, who are also extension-eligible this offseason. Mathurin will be a restricted free agent next summer if an extension isn`t reached. The proposed contract would place Turner`s salary among the top 10 for NBA centers. This season, Turner was third in the league with 144 blocks and was the only player to record at least 150 three-pointers and 125 blocks.
Josh Giddey
Chicago Bulls | Guard
Free agent ranking: 7
- Best free agent fit: Chicago
- The deal I`d offer: Five years, $125 million.
An average salary of $25 million might seem low, considering Giddey is coming off arguably the most complete season of his career. He joined Michael Jordan as the only players in Bulls franchise history to average at least 10 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists in a season. From mid-February onwards, Giddey averaged 22.6 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 9.1 assists. His six triple-doubles tied for the fourth most in a single season for the franchise.
Despite these impressive statistics, the reality of restricted free agency provides the Bulls with a significant advantage in negotiating Giddey`s price, especially since the Brooklyn Nets are the only team with substantial cap space capable of extending a competitive offer sheet. The Bulls front office has expressed strong belief that Giddey is a good fit for the team and hopes to keep him for several more years.
Jonathan Kuminga
Golden State Warriors | Forward
Free agent ranking: 9
- Best free agent fits: Golden State, Brooklyn
- The deal I`d offer: Three years, $81 million. (The final year is a player option.)
Projecting a new contract for the 22-year-old Kuminga is complex. Like Giddey, he is a restricted free agent, giving Golden State leverage due to the limited free agency market for teams with significant cap space. However, unlike the Bulls guard, Kuminga`s fourth season was marked by inconsistency, transitioning from a bench role to an undefined status after a mid-season trade, before excelling to average 21 points in the Warriors` second-round playoff series loss.
The only certainty regarding his next contract is that Golden State will extend him a $7.9 million qualifying offer before June 29. Golden State`s GM has acknowledged the difficulty in predicting the outcome, including potential contract structures or sign-and-trades. A contract starting at $25 million would provide Golden State with the financial flexibility needed to complete their roster while remaining below the second apron.
Ty Jerome
Cleveland Cavaliers | Guard
Free agent ranking: 15
- Best free agent fits: Cleveland, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Sacramento
- The deal I`d offer: Four years, $40 million. (The final year is a team option.)
Ty Jerome stands out as one of the top backup guards available in free agency and is expected to see a considerable pay raise from his $2.6 million salary last season. After playing only two games in the previous year, Jerome was a strong contender for Sixth Man of the Year in 2024-25, finishing second in voting. Staying healthy, he played 70 games and posted career highs in points (12.3), field goal percentage (52%), and three-point percentage (43%). Cleveland was significantly better with Jerome on the court during the regular season, with a net rating of plus-11 points per 100 possessions.
Re-signing with Cleveland seems the logical choice, especially with starting guard Darius Garland potentially missing the start of the season due to toe surgery. The Cavaliers can offer up to a four-year, $64 million contract, the largest potential offer outside of Brooklyn. However, Cleveland is entering the luxury tax for the first time since 2018 and is $13 million over the second apron. A starting salary of $14 million would add an estimated $80 million in tax penalties and push Cleveland further over the second apron, although team ownership has reportedly given the front office permission to enter the tax. Atlanta, Brooklyn, Charlotte, and Sacramento all have needs at guard and possess the full $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception, making a starting salary around $10 million, comparable to T.J. McConnell`s extension, a possibility with these teams.
Naz Reid
Minnesota Timberwolves | Forward
Free agent ranking: 17
- Best free agent fits: Minnesota, Detroit
- The deal I`d offer: Three years, $57 million. (The final year is a player option.)
Due to the Timberwolves` financial situation and the limited cap space of most other teams (many restricted to the $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception), projecting Naz Reid`s next contract is challenging, despite him having his best season and previously winning Sixth Man of the Year. Reid achieved career highs in points (14.2), rebounds (6.0), and assists, and was a top scorer among reserves in the 2025 postseason.
By declining his $15 million player option and signing a three-year, $57 million contract with either Minnesota or a team with cap space, Reid would receive a slight salary increase while gaining the flexibility to either extend or become a free agent again in 2027. The Detroit Pistons could create substantial cap space (potentially over $17 million) through roster moves, making them a possible suitor, but this would likely involve parting with free agents like Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schroder, and Malik Beasley.
Minnesota and Reid could reach an extension before free agency begins, or he could opt into his contract and extend in July. Reid is eligible for a four-year, $87.2 million extension starting June 27, which would replace his $15 million option with a $19 million salary for next season. Alternatively, he could opt in and then sign a four-year, $94.2 million extension, with the $21 million salary for the first year starting in 2026-27.
Bobby Portis
Milwaukee Bucks | Forward
Free agent ranking: NR
- Best free agent fits: Milwaukee, Atlanta, Detroit
- The deal I`d offer: Three years, $54 million.
At a minimum, Bobby Portis is set to receive an increase from his $13.4 million player option. However, similar to Naz Reid, Portis`s market options are largely limited to re-signing or extending with the Milwaukee Bucks or targeting teams with the $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception available.
His next contract with Milwaukee could be influenced by the free agency decision of center Brook Lopez. If Lopez departs, the Bucks would gain flexibility to offer Portis a raise and potentially use their full non-tax midlevel exception to bring back players like Gary Trent Jr. or sign a starting point guard to fill in for the injured Damian Lillard.