The NBA playoffs are a challenging journey, often revealing team weaknesses on the path to the Finals. Winning four series, each potentially lasting seven games, demands resilience and exposes vulnerabilities.
Even the top contenders – the Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 1 seed), Cleveland Cavaliers (Eastern Conference leader), and Boston Celtics (defending champions) – have shortcomings.
We statistically examine these eight leading teams (top three in the East and top five in the West) to pinpoint weaknesses and determine which opponents might capitalize on them in the postseason.
East contenders:
BOS | CLE | NYK
West contenders:
DEN | GS | HOU | LAL | OKC
EAST CONTENDERS
Boston Celtics
Weakness: Insufficient pace
Finding flaws in the Celtics, a team with top-five offense and defense like the Thunder, is difficult. However, their methodical offense could be a playoff issue. It`s not about 3-point reliance, but their low rankings in offensive speed statistics: 27th in pace, 30th in fast break points/transition frequency, and average time to shoot after rebounds/turnovers.
This slow pace hasn`t hurt their offense over two seasons, but in stretches, especially with poor 3-point shooting, Boston can stagnate and lack the fast-break ability to generate easy scores.
Who might exploit it: Thunder, Orlando Magic, Cavaliers
The Thunder have the league`s best half-court defense. While their transition defense is also top-tier (behind Boston), relying on half-court plays against OKC`s set defense in the Finals could be detrimental. Boston lost twice to the Thunder this season, once scoring a season-low 92 points. The Magic and Cavaliers also possess strong half-court defenses in the East. Orlando might lack offensive firepower to truly threaten Boston, but their defense could make for a surprisingly tough series.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Weakness: Backcourt size
Unlike the Thunder and Celtics, Cleveland`s defense has a potential weakness: their smaller backcourt. They rely on Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen to compensate defensively. Opponents often target smaller guards in playoffs, and Cleveland has targets in Donovan Mitchell (6-3), Darius Garland (6-1), and Ty Jerome (6-5), with Jerome being potentially the weakest defender. When Jerome defends pick-and-rolls, opponents score effectively.
Who might exploit it: Thunder, Detroit Pistons
Teams with strong perimeter scorers can exploit this, especially Oklahoma City, if they reach the Finals. The Thunder frequently use guard-guard pick-and-rolls, leading the league in this play type. Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso are key guard screen setters. This poses a challenge for Cleveland, forcing them to either allow open 3s or switches leading to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isolating against smaller guards. Detroit, with Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. setting screens for Cade Cunningham, could also exploit this in a potential second-round matchup.
New York Knicks
Weakness: Defending stretch big men
Ironically, despite having Karl-Anthony Towns, a top stretch big, the Knicks struggle against opposing shooting centers. Only Atlanta allows more pick-and-pop points than New York, who often leave big men open beyond the arc or scramble rotations to cover the perimeter.
Coach Tom Thibodeau rarely switches Towns on screens, but this allows simple pick-and-pops in five-out offenses to pressure the Knicks` defense.
Who might exploit it: Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks
The Knicks` potential first and second round opponents include top pick-and-pop threats: Brook Lopez (Bucks) and Kristaps Porzingis (Celtics). Porzingis missed games against New York but was effective in the one game he played, getting open 3s after screens. While the Knicks have strong wings in Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart, they`ve struggled to defend Boston`s shooters this season. The Bucks might be less of a threat due to fewer perimeter threats around Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Lopez has also been less effective scoring against the Knicks.
WEST CONTENDERS
Denver Nuggets
Weakness: Transition defense
Denver`s weakness might be overall defense, ranking 20th defensively among winning teams. Specifically, they struggle in transition defense, ranking poorly in opponent transition points and fast-break points allowed. Despite leading the league in fast-break points themselves, they allow too many defensively. While they limit transition opportunities, opponents score efficiently in transition against them.
Who might exploit it: Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies
The Thunder, Grizzlies, and Nuggets have the best transition offenses. Oklahoma City`s league-leading steals contribute to transition opportunities, and Memphis has consistently had a top transition attack. To contend for the Finals, Denver needs to improve this. They were somewhat better in transition defense against Oklahoma City and Memphis in regular season matchups, performing closer to average.
Houston Rockets
Weakness: Half-court offense
Houston`s half-court offense has improved recently, but it still ranks 22nd, the worst among above-.500 teams. Their overall 11th-ranked offense relies on offensive rebounding (No. 1 in points per missed shot) and transition play. They have a low rate of half-court plays.
However, easy points diminish in playoffs. The 2022-23 Knicks, relying on second chances, dropped from 4th to 13th in offensive rating in the playoffs.
Who might exploit it: Clippers, Thunder
The Rockets have a strong half-court defense, but potential opponents like the Clippers or Thunder pose challenges. The Clippers have a stout defense, league-leading defensive rebound rate, and playoff experience advantage. While Houston won regular-season games against the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard and James Harden missed some matchups. If Houston reaches the conference finals, it`s a bonus, but they have defeated the Thunder twice this season, including a recent high-efficiency win.
Golden State Warriors
Weakness: Midrange shooting
Despite having Stephen Curry and Buddy Hield, elite 3-point shooters, Golden State struggles from midrange. Curry takes fewer midrange shots, and the Warriors shoot poorly (37%) on non-paint 2s, fourth-lowest in the league. Even with Jimmy Butler III, their midrange shooting hasn`t improved. They limit midrange attempts, but playoff defenses might force more midrange shots: playoff teams attempt more midrange shots than in the regular season.
Who might exploit it: Nuggets
Interestingly, teams forcing midrange shots are mostly in the East. The Nuggets, however, force the most midrange shots among potential West playoff opponents. Golden State struggled from midrange against Denver in one game but improved in a later win.
Los Angeles Lakers
Weakness: Turnover differential
Integrating Luka Doncic has caused turnover issues for the Lakers. Their overall turnover avoidance is mid-range, but post-All-Star break, their turnover rate is worse, and they are committing more turnovers than most above-.500 teams. This is worsened by their lack of forced turnovers defensively. Their turnover differential has worsened since Doncic`s arrival.
Who might exploit it: Warriors, Thunder
Oklahoma City forces the most turnovers in the NBA, with a historically large turnover differential. They forced many turnovers in a win against the Lakers. The Warriors, with Jimmy Butler, also force more turnovers post-All-Star break. In a recent game, turnovers weren`t a major factor, but both the Thunder and Warriors are equipped to exploit this Laker weakness.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Weakness: Free throw differential
Oklahoma City excels in most areas, but they rank low in free throw rate and allow many free throws defensively, resulting in a negative free throw differential (second worst in the NBA). Coach Mark Daigneault mentioned this frustration after a game, feeling they are called for more fouls than opponents.
Who might exploit it: Nuggets, Lakers
The Lakers and Nuggets are potential playoff opponents. Denver and Oklahoma City split their season series, with free throws being a factor in one Denver win where they had a significant free throw advantage. The Thunder and Lakers are contrasting teams in some ways. Their season meetings have been limited, but the Lakers, even with Doncic, are good at drawing fouls but less effective at avoiding fouling compared to when Anthony Davis was a stronger defensive anchor.