With a 125-108 victory in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals on Saturday night, the Indiana Pacers secured their spot in the 2025 NBA Finals, setting up one of the most unexpected championship matchups in recent memory.
In many ways, the fourth-seeded Pacers and the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder are vastly different. OKC entered the season as a title favorite and dominated the Western Conference throughout. Indiana, conversely, struggled to a losing record before hitting their stride in January. The Thunder boast the league MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, along with another All-NBA player and two All-Defensive selections. The Pacers` only player to receive a season honor is Tyrese Haliburton, named to the All-NBA third team.
However, the finalists also share common ground as two young teams led by dynamic guards playing in the Midwest. This marks the first NBA Finals since the luxury tax was introduced where neither team is subject to it. Both teams play an entertaining, fast-paced style and appear well-positioned for continued postseason success in the coming years.
Before the Finals commence on Thursday, here are the key statistics, trends, and head-to-head dynamics to watch in this surprising Thunder-Pacers series.
A Rare Clash of All-NBA Point Guards
While these two stars are unlikely to spend significant time guarding each other, the point guard matchup is a central focus of this series. Gilgeous-Alexander and Haliburton are the first pair of All-NBA point guards to face off in the Finals since Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving a decade ago (a matchup tragically cut short by injury in Game 1, though they met again in 2016 and 2017).
Gilgeous-Alexander and Haliburton excel offensively in remarkably different ways. The MVP has never averaged more than 6.4 assists per game (this season), but he led the league in scoring at 32.7 points per game, the sixth-highest average ever for a primary point guard. Haliburton, on the other hand, is the quintessential facilitator, leading the league in assists per game in 2023-24 (10.9) and finishing third this season (9.2). While also a capable scorer, Haliburton can significantly impact a game without reaching 20 points.
Both guards have performed strongly en route to the Finals. Following a slow start in the first three games of the Thunder`s sweep of Memphis, Gilgeous-Alexander has more than validated his MVP award, leading all players in Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) during the playoffs by my metric. Haliburton entered Game 6 of the conference finals ranked third in WARP, behind Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards.
Haliburton`s History of Passivity Against OKC
In theory, the Thunder`s defense is ideally equipped to contain Haliburton, featuring defenders like Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, and Alex Caruso, all capable of challenging elite guards.
This theory has held true against Haliburton. In four meetings over the past two seasons, Haliburton has averaged just 12 points per game, his lowest against any opponent during that period.
Haliburton has often appeared passive against the Thunder`s array of perimeter defenders. His 10.2 field goal attempts per game are his second-fewest against any opponent over this stretch, and his 0.5 free throw attempts (just one shooting foul drawn in four games) are his absolute fewest. The Thunder have also largely limited his playmaking, with Haliburton`s 8.5 assists per game against them tied for his fourth-fewest against any opponent over the past two campaigns.
Remarkably, Haliburton scored only eight points on 10 shot attempts in 122 matchups when guarded by Dort, according to tracking data. This represents his lowest shot rate against any individual defender with a minimum of 50 matchups in that span. (In contrast, Haliburton`s highest shot rate was against Jalen Brunson, but the Thunder`s robust defense offers no similar defensive liabilities for Haliburton to target as he did in the conference finals.)
Evidently, the Pacers point guard must play significantly better – and much more aggressively – for his team to have a realistic chance at a Finals upset.
The Finals Feature the #2 Offense vs. the #1 Defense
This series presents a classic strength-on-strength matchup when Indiana possesses the ball. The Pacers rank second among all teams in playoff offensive rating, trailing only the Cleveland Cavaliers. On the other side, Oklahoma City boasts the league`s stingiest defense, allowing 3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions than any other team.
This is the first time since 2022 (when the #1 Golden State offense faced the #2 Boston defense) that we`ve seen this specific type of matchup in the Finals and only the 14th occurrence since the NBA began tracking possessions in 1997.
Over this period, neither elite offense nor elite defense has held a decisive advantage, with the top-two offense winning seven of the 13 series. Performance on the *other* end of the court has often been a key differentiator. In nine of the 12 series where one team ranked better than the other on their non-strength side, the team superior on both ends ultimately won. This favors the Thunder, who rank third in offensive rating so far in the playoffs, while the Pacers rank just ninth in defensive rating.
Don`t Anticipate Another 3-Point Barrage from Indiana
A significant factor behind Indiana`s potent offense and Oklahoma City`s stifling defense is each unit`s performance from 3-point range.
Indiana`s 40% 3-point accuracy leads all playoff teams by a considerable margin, with Tyrese Haliburton being the only Pacers starter below that mark individually.
Pacers Starters From 3-Point Range (Playoffs)
| Player | Attempts Per Game |
Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nesmith | 5.4 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard | 3.8 | 48% |
| Pascal Siakam | 3.4 | 46% |
| Myles Turner | 3.9 | 40% |
| Tyrese Haliburton | 7.1 | 33% |
This seemingly unstoppable force will meet an immovable object at the 3-point line. Oklahoma City allowed opponents to shoot just 34% from distance in the regular season (leading the league) and have lowered that to 33% in the playoffs.
Whether opponent 3-point percentage is primarily due to skill or luck has long been debated, but it appears the Thunder`s defense benefits from both. According to tracking data, the Thunder ranked third in opponent 3-point shot quality during the regular season and were second in opponent 3-point shotmaking (actual accuracy minus expected accuracy).
However, the Thunder do have one potential vulnerability in their 3-point defense. In the regular season, they allowed the third-most 3-point attempts per game, with 41% of opponent shots coming from beyond the arc. This figure remains high at 40% in the postseason, despite playing a significant portion of their playoff games against the Denver Nuggets, who ranked last in offensive 3-point rate this season.
Oklahoma City strategically prioritizes preventing shots at the rim, a focus that comes with a trade-off: they are willing to concede outside shots, even to capable shooters like Donte DiVincenzo and Michael Porter Jr. in previous rounds. This approach could be problematic in the Finals if the Pacers maintain their exceptional shooting form.
Conversely, statistics suggest that some Indiana players, such as Andrew Nembhard (a 29% regular-season 3-point shooter) and Pascal Siakam (39%), are likely experiencing unsustainable shooting percentages. Whether they can delay this regression could significantly influence the series outcome.
Prepare for a Faster-Paced Finals?
Generally, as the stakes increase in the NBA Finals, the game tends to slow down and become more deliberate. Here is the average pace for the past eight Finals:
- 2024: 93.0 possessions per team per game
- 2023: 91.7
- 2022: 95.4
- 2021: 97.3
- 2020: 94.6
- 2019: 96.9
- 2018: 92.7
- 2017: 100.7
However, both Oklahoma City and Indiana have shown no inclination to slow down. The Thunder are averaging 100.6 possessions per playoff game this season (second only to the Grizzlies, whom they swept). Indiana is close behind, ranking third with 98.4 possessions per game.
To put it another way, the last truly fast-paced Finals was in 2017, when the Warriors defeated the Cavaliers in five games. Based on the preferred style of play for both the Thunder and the Pacers, this series could feature a high-octane, end-to-end matchup, potentially diverging from recent Finals trends.
Indiana`s Run Among the Most Improbable in Finals History
Although the Pacers reached the conference finals last year (losing to Boston), oddsmakers gave them slim odds of advancing further this season. Indiana started the year with 20-1 odds to win the East, tied for sixth-best in the conference. Adjusting for the house edge, this implied roughly a 4% probability of the Pacers reaching the Finals.
In terms of championship odds, only two teams that reached the Finals over the past four decades had longer preseason odds to win it all than Indiana`s 50-1: the 2019-20 Heat (75-1) and the 2001-02 New Jersey Nets (60-1), according to research.
Besides those Heat and Nets teams, the other four teams with preseason championship odds of 30-1 or higher that reached the Finals all lost the series. Thus far, the 2014-15 Warriors (28-1) represent the most improbable title winners on record based on preseason odds. Should the Pacers manage another upset and win this series, they would significantly surpass that mark.
Two More Opportunities for History
If the Pacers were to win the Finals, they would distinguish themselves among past champions. Only two champions in league history did not enter the playoffs as a top-three seed: the 1994-95 Houston Rockets (West #6 seed, defending champions) and the 1968-69 Boston Celtics (East #4 seed, won their 11th title in 13 years).
In essence, the Pacers could become the first champion in NBA history that was neither a top-three seed nor a defending champion.
Indiana also looks like an unusual championship candidate due to their plus-2.2 point differential in the regular season. Since 1960, only the 1994-95 Rockets (plus-2.1) and 1977-78 Washington Bullets (plus-0.9) have won a championship with a worse regular-season point differential.
Interestingly, the Pacers` profile is remarkably similar to that of the 2023-24 Dallas Mavericks, who had the opportunity to achieve these same historical distinctions. Indiana finished as the East`s No. 4 seed with a 50-32 record and a plus-2.2 point differential. Last year`s Mavericks were the West`s No. 5 seed with the exact same 50-32 record and a plus-2.2 point differential. Of course, that prior example resulted in Dallas` five-game loss in the Finals.
On the other side, Oklahoma City would also rank among historical outliers if they win the Finals. The Thunder went 68-14 in the regular season. With four more wins, they would reach 84 total victories for the season. Only one champion in NBA history has achieved more total wins (regular season + playoffs): the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (72-10 regular season, 15-3 playoffs, 87 total wins).
Most Total Wins in a Season for NBA Champions
| Team | Regular Season | Playoff | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 Bulls | 72 | 15 | 87 |
| 1997 Bulls | 69 | 15 | 84 |
| 2025 Thunder* | 68 | 16 | 84 |
| 2015 Warriors | 67 | 16 | 83 |
| 2017 Warriors | 67 | 16 | 83 |
| 1986 Celtics | 67 | 15 | 82 |
| 1992 Bulls | 67 | 15 | 82 |
| 2000 Lakers | 67 | 15 | 82 |
| 2008 Celtics | 66 | 16 | 82 |
| 2013 Heat | 66 | 16 | 82 |
| * If they win 2025 title | |||
Achieving such a high total win count is partly aided by the modern playoff format requiring 16 wins to clinch the title, compared to fewer wins needed in earlier eras with shorter playoff series.
Nonetheless, only four champions in NBA history finished with a better regular-season record than the Thunder`s 68-14: the 1995-96 Bulls (72-10), the 1996-97 Bulls (69-13), the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers (69-13), and the 1966-67 Philadelphia 76ers (68-13).