Kevin Pelton
With the 2025 NBA draft approximately two months away (scheduled for June 25-26) and the list of potential draftees largely solidified, it`s time to evaluate how the top 30 prospects are projected statistically. Unsurprisingly, Cooper Flagg from Duke is the highest-ranked prospect according to my projection model. This model estimates players` long-term value by integrating translated statistical performance from NCAA or non-NBA professional leagues with their age and rank on ESPN`s top 100 prospects list.
Flagg isn`t the only standout. His teammate Kon Knueppel, along with two other freshmen, also features in the top 10 of the stats-only projections and the overall top 100. When there`s such strong agreement on the leading prospects, it generally suggests a high likelihood of successful translation to the NBA. Here are the projections for the top 30 players currently ranked in ESPN`s top 100 after the deadline for early declarations, including a few less anticipated names.
1. Cooper Flagg, F, Duke
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 5.3 WARP
As previously discussed regarding strategies seen late in the NBA season, the main question surrounding Flagg isn`t his position as the top prospect this year, but rather his historical standing among draft classes. Only two previous No. 1 picks (Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson) had better projections than Flagg, and only Luka Doncic rates higher in my consensus model. Flagg is unique in this draft class, rating at least 15% better than the average NBA-bound college prospect at his position in all categories used to assess strengths and weaknesses.
2. Kon Knueppel, G/F, Duke
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Flagg`s teammate ranking immediately below him is somewhat unexpected. Based purely on college performance, Knueppel would likely fall a few spots, aligning more closely with his No. 9 rank in the top 100. However, Knueppel exhibited the most promising projection of any prospect who participated in the Nike EYBL AAU competition in either 2022 or 2023. In 2023, he achieved a .642 true shooting percentage with a 35% usage rate, indicating greater shot creation ability than he showed playing alongside other talented players at Duke.
3. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Alongside Flagg, Edgecombe is one of only two prospects in this year`s group who rank in the top five of both my stats-only model and the top 100 rankings, a combination that typically predicts strong NBA outcomes. Although Edgecombe`s offensive efficiency during his single season at Baylor was moderate (50% on 2s and 34% on 3s), he contributed significantly across the box score. Edgecombe projects to be at least 15% better than the typical NBA-bound college shooting guard in rebound, block, and steal rates. This defensive potential provides him with a solid floor, while his development as a shooter will determine his ultimate upside.
4. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
Harper presents a contrast compared to Knueppel. He had a more impactful freshman season in college, averaging 19.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 4.0 APG with reasonable efficiency given his significant role in the Rutgers offense (29% usage rate). However, Harper was slightly less effective in EYBL play, which led to Knueppel ranking ahead when those stats were included. Notably, Harper was an excellent finisher in college, hitting 57% of his 2-point attempts – the best rate among one-and-done perimeter prospects.
5. Isaiah Evans, SG, Duke
Top 100: No. 43
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 3.0 WARP
This projection might appear unusual. Evans averaged only 13.8 minutes per game coming off the bench for the Blue Devils, yet my model shows excitement about his potential as a shooter. This isn`t primarily due to his 42% 3-point accuracy, as that small sample size (149 attempts) is heavily regressed towards the mean for his NBA projection. However, the 12 3-point attempts Evans took per 40 minutes give him the highest shooting projection of any one-and-done player in my database. Given his limited contributions outside of shooting, he would need to be truly elite in that area to become an NBA rotation player. Ideally, he would return for his sophomore year to take on a larger role and provide more data for evaluation.
6. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
Fears was a key offensive driver at Oklahoma. His 31.5% usage rate was the highest for any freshman in a major conference, according to Stathead.com, slightly surpassing Flagg. Despite carrying such a heavy load, Fears` ability to score with average efficiency was commendable. Nonetheless, to justify a similarly large role in the NBA, Fears must improve his 3-point shooting beyond 28%. An encouraging sign is his 85% free throw accuracy, which is often a good indicator of future NBA 3-point success.
7. Ace Bailey, PF, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
In a year where many top prospects performed well statistically, Bailey was an anomaly. His shotmaking ability did not translate into high efficiency, largely because of his difficult shot selection. According to CBBAnalytics.com, 36% of Bailey`s shot attempts were non-paint 2-pointers, placing him in the 99th percentile nationally. While he made these at a respectable 43%, it`s significantly less valuable than the effective 52% he shot from 3-point range, considering the additional point value. In the right system, Bailey could develop into an offensive playmaker, but the wrong team might struggle to maximize his unique skillset.
8. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Having moved into lottery consideration, Essengue is no longer entirely a sleeper, but his ranking isn`t quite as high as his stats-only projection, which identifies him as the top international prospect in the draft. Playing in the competitive EuroCup, Essengue averaged 14.4 PPG and 5.3 RPG in only 23.7 MPG, shooting 66% on 2-point attempts, often against older, more experienced competition. Essengue will not turn 19 until December, making him the second-youngest prospect among the top 100, trailing only Flagg.
9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF, South Carolina
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Murray-Boyles` production in his second year at South Carolina was too impressive for scouts to ignore. In the nation`s strongest conference (SEC), Murray-Boyles averaged 16.8 PPG and 8.3 RPG and posted the highest effective field goal percentage (60%) in the SEC. At 6-foot-7, he is undersized for a traditional big man, but his performance across the box score led to seven identified strengths in my model – the most of any prospect, slightly ahead of Flagg`s six. (Memphis guard PJ Haggerty also had six strengths but more weaknesses and didn`t make the top 30).
10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
There are many positive aspects to Jakucionis` offensive game. He is a strong finisher, making 56% of his 2-point attempts, which is excellent for a guard. Additionally, his 84.5% accuracy from the free-throw line suggests he could improve upon his 32% 3-point shooting at Illinois to complement his playmaking skills. The main concern is on the defensive end. Jakucionis has a below-average steal rate for a guard and recorded only nine blocks throughout the season.
11. Egor Demin, PG, BYU
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Demin`s blend of court vision and size (6-foot-9), which aids in creating passing lanes, gives him the third-best assist projection among prospects in the top 100. Similar to Jakucionis, Demin`s size allowed him to be an effective finisher from the backcourt, converting 55% of his 2-point attempts. However, there is less optimism regarding Demin`s shooting potential. Not only did he make just 27% of his 3-point attempts, but his free-throw accuracy was also just shy of 70%.
12. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Johnson`s profile as a high-volume scorer is the type of skillset that doesn`t always translate favorably in my projections. Usage rate is his only identified strength, while he rates significantly below average in rebounding, steals, and blocks. The crucial factor for his success will be his efficiency as a scorer. He performed adequately at the college level, thanks to 40% 3-point shooting, but was less effective in EYBL play, where he shot only 34% from beyond the arc in the 2023 campaign.
13. Miles Byrd, SG, San Diego State
Top 100: No. 50
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
My top-rated sleeper prospect currently outside the first round of the top 100 rankings, Byrd ranks highly due to his rare combination of steal and block rates. Over the last ten years, only four other drafted players have projected for at least two steals per 100 plays and blocked 2% of opponent 2-point attempts: OG Anunoby, Tari Eason, Paul Reed, Matisse Thybulle, and Williamson. Although Byrd has only shot 30% from the college 3-point line, his 83% free-throw accuracy suggests he could provide enough spacing to remain on the court for his defensive impact.
14. Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
The elder son of former long-time NBA guard Jason Richardson improved throughout his freshman season, performing well statistically. In fact, only Flagg rated better among eligible first-year players according to Stathead.com`s box plus-minus metric. Richardson doesn`t rank quite as high in my stats-only metric partly because his strong 41% 3-point shooting undergoes significant regression to the mean, and he was less effective in the 2023 EYBL, shooting only 33% on 3s there. Nevertheless, as a potential late lottery pick, Richardson appears to offer strong value.
15. Asa Newell, PF, Georgia
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Playing both frontcourt positions, Newell was productive in his freshman year, averaging 15.4 PPG with 63% shooting on 2s and 6.9 RPG. His long-term position in the NBA remains uncertain because he projects as a below-average shot blocker for a center but needs to develop the necessary shooting to play power forward. He hit just 29% from the college 3-point line on low volume, although he was relatively more accurate from the free-throw line (75%).
16. Boogie Fland, PG, Arkansas
Top 100: No. 52
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
As a freshman at Arkansas, Fland struggled with efficiency, shooting just 41% on 2-point attempts and not well enough from 3 (34%) to compensate. His .498 true shooting percentage was the lowest among any top-100 prospect this season. Fland performed better in the 2023 EYBL and possesses a high steal rate, but I tend to agree with scouts that his poor shooting makes him a more appropriate second-round pick.
17. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 37
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
While highly efficient on offense, shooting 75% on 2-point attempts and an impressive 77% from the line with a relatively large usage rate (16%) for a rim-running big, Maluach did not grade out as well defensively. Relative to the typical NBA-bound college center, Maluach`s 7% block rate was on the lower side, and he only recorded eight steals throughout the season. However, statistics don`t fully capture Maluach`s versatility as a switchable big, which helps explain his lottery projection.
18. Carter Bryant, F, Arizona
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Primarily a 3-and-D player during his freshman year, Bryant hit a promising 37% of his 3-point attempts, 59% of his infrequent 2-pointers, and blocked shots at an impressive rate for a perimeter player. Only one non-post player (Nolan Traore) in the top 100 has a superior block projection in the model.
19. Walter Clayton Jr., PG, Florida
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
A breakout star of the NCAA tournament, Clayton`s rise in the top 100 brought him closer to his consistent position in the stats-only model. My model valued Clayton`s strong sophomore season at Iona, where he was named MAAC Player of the Year, and his career 39% 3-point shooting. At 22, Clayton would be expected to be more productive than younger prospects ahead of him, but he exceeded expectations even when accounting for age.
20. Liam McNeeley, SF, UConn
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
McNeeley was an inefficient scorer at UConn, converting 32% of his 3s and 44% of his 2s, but there are reasons to believe this could improve. McNeeley shot 37% on 3s in the 2023 EYBL and was an 87% free-throw shooter at UConn, both indicators for future shooting accuracy.
21. Rasheer Fleming, PF, Saint Joseph`s
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
The combination of solid rebounding and shot blocking made Fleming a standout in statistical models even before his scoring breakout in 2024-25. Increasing his usage rate, Fleming also achieved a career-high 39% from 3-point range, demonstrating the stretch-four ability necessary for him to play power forward in the NBA.
22. Kam Jones, G, Marquette
Top 100: No. 44
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
The departure of Tyler Kolek, drafted in the second round by the Knicks, shifted Jones into an on-ball role in 2024-25 after he had previously excelled playing off the ball with Kolek. Jones more than doubled his assist rate to 5.9 per game while also increasing his scoring, earning a consensus All-America selection as a senior. Strong finishing (59% career on 2s) and high-volume 3-point shooting (9.0 career attempts per 40 minutes) are strong indicators that Jones could thrive as a creator coming off the bench in the NBA.
23. Koby Brea, SG, Kentucky
Top 100: No. 55
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
Ranked as the top shooter in the draft class by the model, Brea offers a clear value proposition with his career 43% accuracy from beyond the arc and sufficient size (6-foot-6) to get his shot off against NBA defenders. The right team could potentially maximize Brea`s ability to shoot on the move. He shot an effective 59% coming off screens last season, according to Synergy Sports, though he had only 31 such shot attempts in Kentucky`s offensive scheme.
24. Tahaad Pettiford, PG, Auburn
Top 100: No. 38
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Playing off the bench for a deep Auburn team that started five seniors, Pettiford was the third-leading scorer as a freshman, behind NBA prospects Johni Broome and Chad Baker-Mazara. He needs to improve his finishing, having shot just 49% on 2-point attempts as an undersized point guard prospect, but his assist-to-turnover ratio near 2 was promising.
25. Payton Sandfort, SF, Iowa
Top 100: No. 84
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Sandfort`s offensive performance declined in his senior year, with career-low percentages on both 2s (49%) and 3s (34%), but he was exceptionally efficient as a junior and boasts a career 90% free-throw shooting mark. A key question surrounding Sandfort is the extent to which his college success was influenced by coach Fran McCaffery`s offensive system. Iowa has produced four draft picks since 2021, but only Keegan Murray (selected 4th overall) has consistently developed into an NBA rotation player.
26. Nolan Traore, PG, Saint Quentin (France)
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 36
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
After excelling in last year`s Nike Hoop Summit, Traore chose to play professionally in his native France rather than attend college. He became an immediate impact player in the French LNB playoffs and entered the year ranked fifth in the top 100, but his play subsequently dipped. On the positive side, Traore has the best assist projection among all top 100 players after averaging 5.2 assists per game in just 22.8 minutes. However, his inefficient scoring (43% on 2s and 28% on 3s) caused him to drop out of the top 30 in the stats-only model.
27. Cedric Coward, SF, Washington State
Top 100: No. 53
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Although Coward played only six games for Washington State after transferring from nearby Eastern Washington, and did so under a different coach, the success of NBA Rookie of the Year contender Jaylen Wells, who also came from the same Eastern Washington program, could boost his draft stock. At Eastern, Coward was a highly efficient scorer, achieving remarkable percentages of 72% on 2s and 39% on 3s. He also projects as an above-average rebounder and passer for a small forward in the model.
28. Will Riley, F/G, Illinois
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 43
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
Named Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year for his high-usage play (24%) off the bench as a freshman, Riley will need to improve his 3-point shooting to establish himself in an NBA wing role. He shot 33% at Illinois and just 31% in the 2023 EYBL, although his free-throw shooting (72% in college) offers slightly more optimism.
29. Thomas Sorber, C, Georgetown
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
Remarkably, no Georgetown player has been drafted since Otto Porter Jr. in 2013. Sorber is virtually certain to end that streak if he remains in the draft after averaging 14.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, and 2.0 BPG as a freshman. Despite these impressive numbers, the statistical bar for centers at the NCAA level is quite high, which particularly impacts fellow DMV freshman Derik Queen of Maryland. In contrast to Queen, who doesn`t make my top 30 despite being 10th in the top 100 rankings, Sorber was a significantly more effective shot blocker.
30. Alex Karaban, F, UConn
Top 100: No. 36
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
After starting for UConn`s back-to-back national championship teams, Karaban returned for another season while the rest of the starting five departed for the NBA. Karaban didn`t achieve the anticipated step forward as a scorer, seeing his shooting accuracy on both 2s (54%) and 3s (35%) slightly decline despite a larger role. However, Karaban did demonstrate improved playmaking skills, nearly doubling his assists to 2.8 per game, and also blocked shots at a career-high rate without Donovan Clingan protecting the rim.