The stage is set for the NBA Conference Finals. In the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder will face the Minnesota Timberwolves, while the New York Knicks will battle the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference.
Following a thrilling semifinals round that saw key teams like Boston, Cleveland, Golden State, and Denver eliminated, what insights can inform our expectations for these upcoming series? More importantly, what are the recommended bets to consider?
Here are some top betting picks for each series.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Favorite bets for the series
Timberwolves +1.5 games (+140). This series feels like it could genuinely go either way, perhaps even leaning slightly towards Minnesota having an advantage. Getting the Timberwolves with a +1.5 game handicap at plus money offers significant value. Minnesota overcame a slow start to the season, seemingly needing time to integrate Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo after the trade involving Karl-Anthony Towns. However, they found their stride and have been exceptional down the stretch. Since March 1st, including playoff games, the Timberwolves boast a 25-6 record, nearly matching the Thunder`s league-best 28-6 mark over the same period. Their season series is split 2-2 over the last two years, further highlighting their comparable strength. Receiving both games and plus money makes this a compelling wager.
Series Total games under 5.5 (+115). Many were caught off guard last season when Dallas swept past Minnesota en route to the NBA Finals, with the Timberwolves managing only one win. While the Thunder`s recent series against Denver wasn`t a blowout, this matchup presents a different dynamic. Oklahoma City possesses significant scoring threats and is well-equipped to defend Anthony Edwards effectively. Consider placing a bet on the Thunder replicating Dallas`s performance last year, resulting in a quick series conclusion.
Exact Series Total games: Thunder up 2-1 after three games (+110). Betting on the exact series score after three games at plus odds offers a targeted prediction. Based on current exact series odds, the expectation might lean towards a 4-1 series win for the Thunder. This narrative echoes the context of their previous series against Denver. This isn`t intended as a slight against the strong Oklahoma City team, but rather acknowledging that regular season dominance doesn`t always translate directly to playoff outcomes. While an upset isn`t necessarily expected, the initial games of this series will likely involve strategic adjustments from both sides. The Timberwolves are likely to secure one victory within the first three contests.
Exact Series Total 5 games (+220). Minnesota advanced past a Lakers team with limited defensive intensity (outside of LeBron James) and a Warriors team missing Stephen Curry. The Thunder have shown flashes of their full potential in these playoffs but haven`t consistently dominated every game. This could change against Minnesota. For a high-reward bet, a Thunder sweep at +450 is tempting, but giving the Timberwolves at least one win is a safer approach. We should quickly ascertain whether the perceived favorable matchup for the Timberwolves holds true early in Game 1.
OKC Thunder 4-2 (+425). The Thunder`s top-tier defense, anchored by defenders like Luguentz Dort, will consistently challenge the Timberwolves` scorers. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stands out as the best player in the series, and Oklahoma City`s depth, combined with the experience gained from a tough second-round series against Denver, provides them with an edge. Chet Holmgren`s ability to protect the rim could also be a significant factor. Expect the Thunder to win in six games.
Favorite prop bets
Julius Randle most total points in the series (+1800). Randle posted impressive scoring numbers in his recent playoff games, scoring 29 and 31 points, and has reached at least 24 points in his last four contests. The Thunder will likely focus their defensive efforts on containing Anthony Edwards, potentially allowing Randle more scoring opportunities. If this scenario unfolds, the +1800 payout is highly attractive, especially considering his current hot streak.
250 or more total points in any game this series (+300). Cheering for high-scoring games is exciting. Winning bets is even better, which is why betting the “under” is often strategically sound. Nevertheless, it feels probable that at least one game in this series will turn into an offensive showcase – that`s all it takes for this prop. An overtime game or one featuring relentless fast breaks could easily drive the score to exceptional levels. While it`s a three-to-one bet for a reason, it also adds an element of fun.
Chet Holmgren most total rebounds in the series (+275). Holmgren demonstrated strong rebounding against Denver, a dynamic that could carry over to this series. While Isaiah Hartenstein matches up with the opponent`s primary center (Rudy Gobert), Holmgren can focus on crashing the boards against the opponent`s power forward (Randle), who is shorter than Holmgren`s previous matchup (Aaron Gordon). Holmgren averaged 11.7 rebounds per game in the last six games against Denver. Maintaining a similar pace against the Timberwolves would give him a legitimate chance to win this prop at solid plus-money odds.
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Favorite bets for the series
Pacers +1.5 games (-175). The Indiana Pacers have arguably been the most impressive team in the Eastern Conference playoffs, holding an 8-2 record against formidable opponents like the Cavaliers and Bucks. Their strong performance isn`t limited to the playoffs; they`ve played excellent basketball for months. The Pacers were one of only four NBA teams (alongside the Thunder, Celtics, and Cavaliers) to win over 70% of their games in the 2025 calendar year, finishing the regular season stretch with a 34-14 record. Their style of play is highly effective, featuring numerous shooters and defenders who can excel in both fast-paced and half-court offenses. The Knicks won two out of three regular-season games against the Pacers and are also playing well in the playoffs, but the Pacers appear to be at least co-favorites in this matchup. Getting them with a 1.5-game advantage offers strong value.
Exact Series Total 7 games (+175). This matchup revives a classic rivalry with a rich history and a playoff record that is nearly even. There`s a strong feeling that this series is destined to be a memorable one, extending to seven games. Indeed, many fans would be disappointed if it concluded sooner. While the Knicks hold the advantage of home court, the Pacers have historically shown no fear of playing at Madison Square Garden. Expect a full-length battle.
Knicks win series 4-3 (+350). The New York Knicks possess advantages in physicality, rebounding, and playoff-tested toughness. With a healthy Mitchell Robinson dominating the boards, New York can control possession and create valuable second-chance scoring opportunities. Jalen Brunson is widely considered the top player in the series, and versatile defenders like Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby are capable of disrupting the Pacers` star players. Although Indiana has good depth, the Knicks` offensive talent and defensive prowess provide them with the upper hand. The Knicks` resilience, rebounding dominance, and playoff experience should carry them to a victory in a hard-fought series.
Exact Series Total 7 games (+175). Let`s consider the implications of this particular angle: the shortest odds in the exact series games played market are for seven games. What does this signify? It suggests a high degree of uncertainty among both oddsmakers and bettors. If there were a clear lean, you would see one team having strong odds to finish the series in five or six games. For those old enough to remember the intense Pacers-Knicks battles of the mid-to-late 1990s, there is hope that this series will produce even a fraction of those indelible competitive moments. The Pacers prefer a high-speed game, while the Knicks aim for a slower, grinding pace. This clash of styles has the potential to be truly special.
Favorite prop bets
Jalen Brunson to score 40+ points in any game in the series (-110). Brunson had to significantly increase his scoring output in previous series to keep the Knicks competitive, and he will likely need to do so again against Indiana. It seems quite plausible that Brunson could average over 30 points per game in this series. Betting on him to exceed 40 points in at least one game appears to be a straightforward prediction.
Josh Hart to record the most total rebounds in the series (+700). While Karl-Anthony Towns might be the favorite for this prop, his -1000 odds aren`t appealing. Josh Hart presents the next-best opportunity at +700, and he is arguably the league`s premier rebounding guard. With averages of 8.7 rebounds against Detroit and 8.3 against Boston, he has a realistic chance of out-rebounding Towns for the Knicks.
Jalen Brunson to score 50+ points in any game (+725). Jalen Brunson has 18 career games with at least 40 points and three career games scoring 50 or more – all achieved while playing for the Knicks. The key factor here is pace. The Knicks will attempt to impose their preferred style, a half-court grind designed to minimize variance. The Pacers, conversely, will push the tempo, aiming for scores near 150 points. Seldom does a deep playoff series strictly adhere to one team`s pace. Imagine the atmosphere at Madison Square Garden when his point total hits fifty. There will likely be at least one game dictated by the Pacers` fast style, and in such a contest, Brunson could reach scoring heights that, for him, are remarkably not far-fetched.
Karl-Anthony Towns to score the most total points in the series (+600). Towns has performed exceptionally well against the Pacers this season. Across their three matchups, Towns averaged 30.3 points per game, scoring at least 21 points in every contest and hitting a season-high of 40. Although Brunson is clearly the Knicks` leading scorer, he has faced more difficulty against the Pacers this season, averaging 22.3 points per game in their matchups. While Brunson is the deserved favorite to lead the series in scoring, Towns has a legitimate opportunity and offers much better value at 6-to-1 odds.