As the 2024-25 NBA season nears its end, it`s a good moment to reflect on the performance of predicted breakout players from last October, noting both successes and disappointments.
Preseason forecasts included 11 players, with expectations like Evan Mobley becoming Cleveland Cavaliers` offensive leader. However, a decline in efficiency for Golden State`s Brandin Podziemski was unexpected.
This article reviews the hits and misses of these projections and, with insights from ESPN`s Chris Herring, offers an early look at potential breakout players for the 2025-26 season.
Looking Back at the Successes
Evan Mobley
Cleveland Cavaliers
Center
Cleveland`s plan to feature Mobley, 23, offensively was key to Kenny Atkinson`s coaching hire in June 2024. By March 2025, the Cavaliers led the Eastern Conference with a 58-14 record and the league`s best offense (121.5 offensive rating). Atkinson`s strategy for Mobley, a skilled 7-footer, is evident.
Mobley achieved career highs with 18.6 points per game, increased 3-point attempts, and maintained strong defense, becoming central to the top Eastern Conference team and an All-Star. He has emerged as a premier two-way NBA big man.
Key stat: Mobley`s career-high 22.6% usage rate, 64% true shooting, and +13.2 net rating highlight his growth and Cleveland`s contender status. The Cavaliers effectively utilize him, reducing pressure on Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell.
Jalen Williams
Oklahoma City Thunder
Forward/Guard
Predicting Williams` breakout, given his expanded on-ball role due to Josh Giddey`s absence, proved accurate. Williams exceeded expectations, becoming an All-Star sooner than anticipated. His potential to be a top-tier player was evident, surpassing initial projections.
Williams played a versatile defensive role, often guarding bigger players, especially with Chet Holmgren`s injury. Despite a March hip injury, Williams has progressed to stardom.
Key stat: Despite a slight efficiency dip due to his increased offensive role, Williams, 23, set career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks with a 26.8% usage rate. The Thunder`s league-best 60-12 record is partly due to his offensive contributions and defensive versatility, ranking high in deflections (3.6 per game).
Jalen Green
Houston Rockets
Guard
While Green`s stats are only marginally improved, his role as the leading scorer for the Houston Rockets, who significantly improved to 47 wins by March 25, is notable. In his extension`s first season, Green consistently performs in a winning environment as the team`s usage leader. Green is developing as a scoring guard, contributing to the Rockets` progress alongside other young talents like Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun.
Key stat: Green`s efficiency has improved, moving from the 61st to 68th percentile as a pick-and-roll handler and from the 28th to 60th percentile in spot-ups. Better decision-making and off-ball play on a talented team mark significant growth for Green.
Regretting the Misses
Franz Wagner
Orlando Magic
Forward
Wagner, expected to break out after his performance with Germany at the Paris Olympics and increased role with Orlando, faced setbacks. A torn oblique on Dec. 6 caused him to miss 20 games.
Despite this, he has been effective, averaging a career-high 24.3 points with a 30.8% usage rate. The Magic`s inconsistency has them in play-in contention. While the injury hindered his All-Star chances, a full breakout is still anticipated.
Key stat: Wagner`s 3-point percentage remains around 30% despite more attempts. His 85% free throw rate suggests potential long-range improvement, though shooting progress isn`t always linear.
Jalen Johnson
Atlanta Hawks
Forward
Johnson`s breakout potential was cut short by a season-ending torn labrum injury on Jan. 29. Before injury, he averaged career highs across the board: 18.9 points, 10 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 1 block, becoming Atlanta`s second-best player behind Trae Young.
Health concerns persist for Johnson, with two consecutive seasons ending prematurely due to injuries. While his performance indicated a breakout, his injury history is impeding his star trajectory.
Key stat: Johnson joins a select group of NBA regulars with over 20% usage and assist rates and a rebound rate above 13%. His success in a do-it-all role highlights the Hawks` vision, but sustained health is crucial.
Brandin Podziemski
Golden State Warriors
Guard
Podziemski, seen as a breakout candidate for the Warriors, experienced inconsistent efficiency (53.6% true shooting percentage) despite consistent minutes and starting in February. Golden State`s need for playoff contention hinged on Podziemski improving efficiency and defense.
Lineup changes and new additions impacted his role. Podziemski remains part of Golden State`s future but has been less crucial recently, navigating shooting struggles and NBA adjustments.
Key stat: His 3-point regression (38% to 34%) and low free throw attempts are notable. While expected to improve shooting, increasing easy looks and paint opportunities is also necessary. Role shifts may contribute, but Podziemski needs to enhance his scoring versatility beyond craftiness.
Sixers guard Quentin Grimes and Trail Blazers forward Toumani Camara are two players who are primed to have breakout seasons in 2025-26. Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Way-Too-Early Breakout Picks for 2025-26
Predicting future performance this time of year is challenging, with injuries and draft lottery considerations affecting team dynamics. Competition can be diluted.
However, several young, impactful players have emerged this season. Some are on playoff-bound teams, while others are building for 2025-26. The following five players have potential for significant impact next season due to their age and demonstrated improvement. — Herring
Toumani Camara
Portland Trail Blazers
Forward
Camara, a second-year wing, displays elite defense, capable of shutting down point-of-attack threats and guarding larger players. He`s also a solid role player, double-digit scorer, 37% 3-point shooter, and contributes over two steals plus blocks per game.
Key stat: At 24, Camara leads the NBA with 27 charges taken. His anticipation as a help defender is exceptional, consistently making impactful defensive plays. He is a major factor in Portland`s top-five defense since the All-Star break.
Amen Thompson
Houston Rockets
Forward
Thompson, 22, shows improved purpose and understanding this season compared to his rookie year. A defensive standout, he has also impacted games with playmaking, recording three triple-doubles against top teams. Despite subpar perimeter shooting, his potential for stardom is evident.
Key stat: The Rockets are 10-9 when Fred VanVleet is out, possibly due to Thompson`s contributions. Houston performs 4.7 points better per 100 possessions with Thompson on and VanVleet off the court. He averages 16.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 4.8 assists on 55% shooting as a starter.
Dyson Daniels
Atlanta Hawks
Guard
Daniels` first season with the Hawks has been impressive, potentially earning him Most Improved Player votes. His next season could be even stronger, playing alongside Trae Young. Coach Quin Snyder highlights Daniels` recovery ability and defensive impact.
At 21, Daniels is improving offensively, shooting 51% overall and nearly 38% from 3 since the All-Star break, up from previous 47% and 33%. This offensive progress complements his already excellent defense.
Key stat: Daniels` league-leading deflections (393) significantly surpass second place. He also achieved the most steals in a single season in over a decade with 192 steals last week.
Jaden Ivey
Detroit Pistons
Guard
Ivey`s season was prematurely ended by a fractured fibula in January, but prior to that, both he and the Pistons showed promise. After a challenging 2023-24, this season showed significant improvement. He improved his 3-point shooting to 40.9% and true-shooting percentage, enhancing his fit with Cade Cunningham.
There`s potential for further improvement in mid-range shooting, where his percentages were unusually low this season but expected to rise upon his return.
Key stat: The 23-year-old Ivey had key moments before his injury, including a game-winning 4-point play and a buzzer-beater. His clutch shooting improved from 36.4% to 47% this season.
Quentin Grimes
Philadelphia 76ers
Guard
Grimes` recent scoring surge with the 76ers is notable. Despite team chaos, Grimes, 24, is experiencing his best professional stretch since his rookie season, averaging nearly 29 points in March. He had never averaged more than 11.3 points in a season before.
Key stat: Grimes` 25.9% usage rate with the Sixers may decrease when key players return. However, his 46-point game highlights his potential value, even in a reduced role. As a restricted free agent, his recent performances are significant. These breakout games are the performances previous teams hoped to see from Grimes.