The NBA regular season has concluded, marked by unexpected team performances and a significant trade that caught even betting experts off guard.
Here`s a retrospective look at the NBA season from a betting perspective:
Oklahoma City Thunder`s Triumph, Philadelphia 76ers` Disappointment
The Oklahoma City Thunder emerged as a remarkably successful team for bettors this NBA season. They exceeded expectations against the spread in 68.3% of their games, achieving the best record in this metric over the last 35 years, according to research data. Despite increasingly challenging betting lines, they maintained an impressive 18-3 record against the spread towards the season`s end, including an 11-game streak in March and April. Notably, Oklahoma City was rarely considered the underdog, holding that position in only three games, the fewest among all teams.
| Season | Team | ATS Record | Cover Pct | Playoff Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Thunder | 56-26 | 68.3 | ? |
| 2011-12 | Spurs | 43-21-2 | 67.2 | L, Conf Finals |
| 2009-10 | Bucks | 54-28 | 65.9 | L, 1st Round |
| 1994-95 | Jazz | 52-28-2 | 65.0 | L, 1st Round |
| 2007-08 | Celtics | 52-29-1 | 64.2 | Won title |
In contrast to the Thunder`s success, the Philadelphia 76ers struggled significantly against betting expectations. The Sixers had a 28-54 record against the spread, covering the number in only 34.1% of their games. Historically, only two teams in the past 35 years have performed worse against the spread: the 2003-04 Orlando Magic and the 1995-96 Houston Rockets.
| Season | Team | ATS Record | Cover Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-04 | Magic | 27-54-1 | 33.3 |
| 1995-96 | Rockets | 27-53-2 | 33.8 |
| 2024-25 | 76ers | 28-54 | 34.1 |
| 2011-12 | Bobcats | 23-43 | 34.8 |
| 1995-96 | Mavericks | 28-52-2 | 35.0 |
Los Angeles Lakers: A Magnet for Bets
The Los Angeles Lakers have always possessed a unique allure, stemming from their rich championship legacy and a constant influx of star players, making them consistently one of the most followed teams in the NBA.
Each season, particularly since LeBron James joined the team, the Lakers have been a popular choice for betting. This popularity reached new heights in February when they orchestrated a surprising trade for Luka Dončić, a highly regarded player in the league.
According to Johnny Avello, director of DraftKings sportsbook, the Lakers are considered “America`s team” in basketball due to their widespread fan base across the nation and globally. They attract significant betting interest on their network, both weekly and in futures markets.
Betting activity on the Lakers was substantial both before and after the trade, according to reports from DraftKings and ESPN BET, who noted they attracted more spread bets than any other team this season. Interestingly, both platforms also indicated that Los Angeles was their most frequently bet money-line underdog throughout the season, often receiving points prior to Dončić`s arrival.
Adam Landeka, vice president of sportsbook strategy and growth for ESPN BET, mentioned that despite their strong performance in the latter half of the season, the Lakers were often underdogs in the first half, especially when injuries accumulated. Bettors frequently favored the Lakers as underdogs, often successfully, as evidenced by their 18-14 record against the spread in these situations.
Dončić`s addition also made the Lakers a popular pick for championship futures, with major sportsbooks reporting them as a significant liability in this market as the playoffs approach.
Reflecting on the trade, oddsmakers like Hal Egeland from BetMGM express bewilderment at the Mavericks` decision to trade their key player to the Lakers. Egeland recounted waking up to numerous messages on February 2nd, the day after the trade announcement.
Egeland`s initial reaction was disbelief, suspecting potential underlying issues given the unexpected nature of the trade. However, these suspicions proved unfounded.
Sportsbooks reacted swiftly, temporarily suspending NBA Finals odds to assess the trade`s implications. BetMGM, according to Egeland, adjusted the Lakers` odds from 40-1 to 18-1 overnight.
Egeland described constantly checking social media for reactions, noting a widespread consensus of disbelief and confusion regarding the Mavericks` rationale.
Egeland remarked that he had never witnessed such unanimous agreement online regarding a sports-related event.
Unexpectedly Successful Underdogs
Several teams exceeded preseason expectations, rewarding bettors who placed faith in them. The Portland Trail Blazers were the first NBA team to surpass their preseason win total, as per ESPN BET lines, exceeding 21.5 wins by February 4th, their 51st game, and concluding the season with 36 wins. DraftKings bettors favored them more than any other underdog in spread wagers this season.
Portland achieved 25 outright wins as underdogs, tying with the Chicago Bulls for the league lead in this category and ranking fourth-most over the past 35 seasons, according to research data.
Unlike the Trail Blazers, the Bulls leveraged their late-season momentum, surpassing 28.5 wins by March 17th, to secure a play-in tournament spot, although they were eventually defeated by the Miami Heat. Chicago was the fourth-most bet team on the spread on ESPN BET throughout the season.
However, one of the most remarkable underdog stories of the season belonged to the Detroit Pistons, who dramatically improved from 14 wins in the 2023-24 season to 44 wins and a playoff berth in 2024-25. Entering the season, the Pistons had +1300 odds to make the playoffs, according to ESPN BET odds, and were the second team to exceed their win total, passing 25.5 wins by February 7th, their 52nd game. They also had the largest over margin (18.5) on win totals in the NBA.
Johnny Avello commented on the Pistons` turnaround, recalling that the previous year there was speculation about whether they would even win nine games. He described their transformation as the biggest surprise in the league.
The Predictable Favorites
Given the Lakers` popularity, it`s not surprising that LeBron James is frequently the most-bet player for prop bets across various sportsbooks.
Similarly, Luka Dončić is consistently among the top five most-bet prop players, maintaining high popularity even before his trade to the Lakers. Avello noted that having two players from the same team so heavily bet on props is “somewhat unusual,” primarily due to the impact of the trade.
Aside from these Lakers players, the most popular prop bet players are typically the league`s biggest stars: Nikola Jokic, Jayson Tatum, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are consistently among the most-backed players on ESPN BET and DraftKings.
Avello explained that bettors tend to favor consistent, high-performing players who regularly produce significant statistics, a trend observed over the past five years.