Three seasons ago, when analyzing the “all-in” strategies of all 30 NBA teams for the 2022-23 season, the Oklahoma City Thunder were barely a blip on the radar. At that time, OKC boasted a single burgeoning star in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had yet to achieve All-Star status, alongside newly drafted talents Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams from the 2022 draft. Despite their promising youth and draft capital, few could have predicted their meteoric rise to 68 regular-season wins and an NBA championship this past season, becoming the second-youngest team in league history to claim the title.
The Thunder`s journey serves as a powerful reminder that not every team can constantly pursue a championship. Even in an era marked by unprecedented parity, with a different champion crowned for a league-record seven consecutive seasons, only a select few teams are truly championship contenders each year. Consequently, teams adopt diverse “all-in” approaches: some might be fully committed to nurturing a young core, similar to the Thunder`s strategy three seasons prior, while others, like the Golden State Warriors or Dallas Mavericks, might be attempting to manage two distinct timelines simultaneously.
This article categorizes all 30 NBA teams into eight strategic tiers for the upcoming 2025-26 season, based on their current rosters, salary cap projections, and draft pick obligations. These tiers will define what constitutes success or failure for each franchise in the year ahead.
All-In on… Winning a Championship Before the Window Closes
Denver Nuggets: When you employ the world`s best player, immediate championship pursuit is paramount. For the Nuggets, with three-time MVP Nikola Jokic`s contract nearing its end in two years, urgency is high despite expectations of an extension. Furthermore, Denver has aggressively traded nearly all its future draft assets to assemble its current roster, exemplified by the 2032 first-rounder swap for Cameron Johnson.
Milwaukee Bucks: Perhaps no team is more focused on the present than the Bucks. Under General Manager Jon Horst, they`ve consistently made bold moves to keep superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo content. This included acquiring Jrue Holiday five years ago, trading Holiday for Damian Lillard two years ago, and most recently, waiving and stretching Lillard`s substantial contract this summer to sign center Myles Turner. These moves reflect Milwaukee`s relentless efforts to contend in the East and retain Antetokounmpo.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Minnesota presents a complex case. Franchise cornerstone Anthony Edwards, still young enough to appear on “top 25 players under 25” lists, doesn`t scream “win now.” However, the Wolves have sacrificed most of their draft capital to maintain their current lineup, are facing the second salary cap apron, and must plan for the eventual replacements of key veterans Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, whose arrivals propelled Minnesota to consecutive Western Conference Finals appearances.
All-In on… an Extended Championship Window
Cleveland Cavaliers: With no starters in their thirties, the Cavaliers possess the potential for sustained contention, provided they can manage an increasingly expensive roster. Extensions for All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, effective this season, will push Cleveland into the second apron, creating a two-year window before potentially difficult decisions regarding their core players.
Houston Rockets: Following their acquisition of Kevin Durant, the Rockets aim to emulate Oklahoma City`s success. Durant`s arrival immediately opens Houston`s championship window after a first-round exit. While the 38-year-old Hall of Famer might not suggest an “extended window,” the Rockets retain a valuable pool of future picks, allowing them to pivot around younger stars like Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson.
New York Knicks: The Knicks have solidified their core by securing Mikal Bridges with a four-year, $150 million extension last month, following Jalen Brunson`s long-term deal last season. New York now has five key players—Bridges, Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart—under contract through at least 2028, aligning with the franchise`s vision for a prolonged period of competitiveness.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Unprecedentedly, the reigning champions, Oklahoma City, possess up to six additional first-round picks and multiple pick swaps, offering significant future flexibility. Having extended MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, All-Star Jalen Williams, and cornerstone Chet Holmgren, managing the luxury tax will be a challenge. Yet, the Thunder are arguably less “all-in” on immediate-term spending than any modern reigning champion.
Orlando Magic: The key question for Orlando is whether the addition of Desmond Bane elevates them to true contender status. Despite injuries to starters Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, and Franz Wagner, the Magic finished 41-41 last season. Their payroll is rapidly increasing, with all four core players set to earn at least $32.4 million by 2026-27 when Banchero`s extension begins. Notably, Bane (27) is Orlando`s only core player over 24.
All-In on… Building Around Young Cores
These teams possess both current talent and promising young players or high-value draft picks, all aimed at strengthening their foundational cores for the future.
Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta significantly bolstered its future this summer via a draft-night trade with the New Orleans Pelicans, acquiring a pick projected to be a top-10 selection in next year`s draft. This adds to a young core that includes last year`s No. 1 pick, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, and Dyson Daniels, who was last season`s most improved player.
Detroit Pistons: Detroit saw a substantial leap forward from Cade Cunningham, the 2021 No. 1 pick, last season, leading the franchise to its first playoff game victory since 2008. The objective now is to build on Cunningham`s success with a surrounding young core featuring Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren.
Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies faced a short-term setback by trading Desmond Bane to Orlando for a package of picks, including a potentially high-value 2026 first-rounder from Phoenix. The hope is that this pick, combined with this year`s lottery selection Cedric Coward, and franchise cornerstones Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., will provide the team with a long window for contention.
Portland Trail Blazers: Portland has amassed a substantial collection of young talent—Deni Avdija, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, Donovan Clingan, and Yang Hansen, all under 25—which they aim to develop following the acquisition of veterans Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard this summer. The ultimate shape of their roster as this talent matures remains to be seen.
San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs have been central to this category since winning the 2023 draft lottery and selecting Victor Wembanyama. Since then, Wembanyama has ushered in a new era of excellence in San Antonio. The franchise has further reinforced this group by drafting Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper and acquiring De`Aaron Fox via trade in the two-plus years since drafting Wembanyama.
All-In on… Two Timelines
This group encompasses various approaches, balancing immediate competitiveness with future flexibility.
Golden State Warriors: The Warriors are arguably most “all-in” on a championship this season, having added Jimmy Butler III (36 in September) to a roster featuring Stephen Curry (37) and Draymond Green (35). However, Golden State has been prudent with future draft picks and has only one player (Moses Moody) with guaranteed money for 2027-28, providing a clear opportunity to pivot their strategy.
LA Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat: Cap flexibility is a shared strategy for these three teams, all of whom have been cautious with long-term contracts. While they each have realistic paths to max-level cap space next summer, they are more likely to clear their books in 2027, potentially aligning with a period when multi-year MVPs Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic could become unrestricted free agents without extensions.
LA Clippers vs. Los Angeles Lakers: There`s a notable difference in how each L.A. team is constructing its 2026-27 roster. The Clippers are heavily invested in veterans, bringing in 38-year-old Brook Lopez and 40-year-old Chris Paul to bolster a deep bench. The Lakers, conversely, are seeking long-term contributors by signing younger players like Deandre Ayton (27) and Jake LaRavia (23).
Dallas Mavericks and Philadelphia 76ers: These teams have more distinct timelines within their rosters. For Philadelphia, the critical question is whether Joel Embiid and Paul George can remain healthy long enough to be effectively supported by younger guards Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain, and No. 3 pick VJ Edgecombe. In Dallas, the No. 1 pick (Cooper Flagg), who would typically join a young team, instead finds himself on a roster built to win a championship on the timeline of Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving.
All-In on… a Gap Year
Boston Celtics: Had it not been for Achilles tears suffered by Jayson Tatum, the Celtics would undoubtedly be in one of the top two tiers. This injury, which will sideline Tatum for the entire 2025-26 season, has shifted the team`s focus squarely to the future. The departures of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday have left Boston more likely to fight for a play-in spot than a top-four seed in the weaker Eastern Conference.
Indiana Pacers: Similarly, Tyrese Haliburton`s Achilles tear has forced the Pacers into a gap year. Haliburton is also expected to miss the entire 2025-26 season. With Turner`s departure, Indiana is more likely to be in the play-in tournament than to make a deep playoff push.
All-In on… “Draft Positioning”
Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards: These four teams were among the NBA`s bottom six last season and have the lowest over/under totals for the 2025-26 season.
Among this group, the Charlotte Hornets appear most likely to show competitiveness this season, having added playmaking depth behind starting point guard LaMelo Ball with newcomers Spencer Dinwiddie and Collin Sexton. Charlotte`s lottery pick, Kon Knueppel, also seems ready to contribute as a rookie, having been named MVP of the Hornets` NBA Summer League championship game.
Nonetheless, all these teams are probably at least a season away from seriously contending for a playoff spot and are likely hoping to secure another high draft pick first.
All-In on… Nothing? (Unclear Direction)
It is challenging to discern the strategic direction of these four franchises.
Chicago Bulls: The offseason saw the Bulls extend lead front office executives Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley, along as coach Billy Donovan. However, the team has reached the playoffs only once and won just a single playoff game in the past eight seasons. They have also consistently failed to extract significant draft pick value from recent trades involving veterans like Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine. A potential silver lining for Chicago is considerable cap space next summer.
New Orleans Pelicans: Since last summer, the Pelicans have:
- Traded for Dejounte Murray, who subsequently tore his Achilles.
- Moved Brandon Ingram for future draft capital.
- Traded the No. 23 pick in this year`s draft, plus an unprotected pick next year, to move up to No. 13 to draft Derik Queen in June.
The outcome is a team that might sneak into the play-in tournament if everything aligns perfectly. If not, the Pelicans could easily find themselves in contention for a top-five pick in what is anticipated to be a strong 2026 draft class.
Sacramento Kings: Sacramento has assembled a roster with solid veterans—DeRozan, LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk, and Dennis Schroder—but none offer long-term upside or a clear path to playoff contention in the formidable Western Conference.
Toronto Raptors: The Raptors are the Eastern Conference counterpart to Sacramento. They have transitioned away from the last remnants of their 2019 championship team—Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Pascal Siakam—essentially turning them into Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett. This leaves the Raptors with a roster currently in the luxury tax that may struggle to be more than a play-in team in the East.
All-In on… 2024 (A Cautionary Tale)
Phoenix Suns: The Suns serve as a cautionary example of an “all-in” strategy gone awry. At the start of the 2023-24 season, Phoenix was unequivocally “all-in” on a title after acquiring Bradley Beal to complement Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. The Suns fielded one of the league`s most expensive rosters and had no control over their future first-round picks, having re-swapped several with an eye toward deadline upgrades.
Not only did the Beal-Durant era fail to yield a championship, but the Suns also failed to win a single playoff game and subsequently agreed to a buyout with Beal last month. While Phoenix is now out of the second apron, their guard-heavy roster, a consequence of the Durant trade, lacks a clear future timeline. The Suns haven`t traded their 2032 first-round pick only because apron restrictions prevented it. Furthermore, with Booker and Beal`s salaries locked in through 2030, Phoenix has no realistic path to significant cap space.