CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The second round of the PGA Championship has concluded. While the focus on mud balls from the first round lessened, many players advanced their standings, leading to a highly varied leaderboard.
Some unexpected players who were high on the leaderboard after Thursday`s opening round couldn`t sustain their performance. But 40-year-old Jhonattan Vegas did not falter and now has the 36-hole lead. Perhaps the main narrative, though, was World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler shooting 3 under par and positioning himself excellently to potentially claim his third major championship.
“I think mostly I`m just happy to be near the lead. In a 72-hole tournament, you`re going to have days and stretches where your swing isn`t at its best,” Scheffler commented. “Throughout a tournament of this length and on a major championship course, there will be challenges. It`s about how you handle them. I managed to respond well to my errors today and stayed in the competition.”
Beyond that, Scheffler`s status hasn`t changed: he remains the favorite to win the Wanamaker Trophy.
Here`s what to look forward to this weekend.
Jhonattan Vegas leads at the halfway point; what are his winning chances?
Schlabach: While `Johnny Vegas` might not be widely known among golf fans, his personal journey is remarkable. He was a top junior player in Venezuela and moved to Houston in 2004 due to political threats against golf courses. Arriving with limited English and old clubs, he earned a scholarship to the University of Texas. After turning pro, he won on the PGA Tour in 2011 and has three more wins, the most recent in July. Vegas mentioned poor sleep after his late finish on Thursday, and sleeping on his first major lead likely didn`t help either. He will have to sleep on a two-shot lead again tonight. His last major cut was T57 in the 2021 U.S. Open, and this is only his third major start since then. His solid second round (1-under 70) was marred by a double-bogey on the 18th hole, though he maintained a two-stroke lead. He putted exceptionally well in the first round but cooled off in the second, while his play from tee to green remained strong. Personally, I would be very surprised if Vegas leads from start to finish and wins the PGA Championship.
Uggetti: Data Golf estimates Vegas`s winning probability at 9.4%. Even with his two-stroke lead, he`s only the second favorite, behind Scottie Scheffler (23.4%, three shots back) and slightly ahead of Bryson DeChambeau (9%, five shots back). It`s impressive that Vegas not only stayed in contention but shot under par and kept his lead in the second round. However, if I were setting the odds, I`d put his chances closer to 5% or less. Vegas commented, “I feel my game is very complete, but I haven`t been able to piece it together in a major. I`ve been patient enough not to be too hard on myself for not playing well in majors. It`s about learning and understanding what it takes to perform here. It`s taking me longer than expected, but I`m happy to be in this position now.” As Mark mentioned, it would be a fantastic story, but if Vegas lifts the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday, it would be one of the most improbable major victories we`ve seen since Jimmy Walker`s 2017 PGA win, perhaps even more so.
Who outside the top 10 has a chance to win?
Schlabach: My pre-tournament pick was DeChambeau, and he`s still within striking distance at 3 under. He recovered from an even-par first round with a 3-under 68 on Friday, placing him tied for 17th, five shots behind the leader. DeChambeau is driving the ball exceptionally far at Quail Hollow, leading the field in driving distance (331.6 yards) and strokes gained off the tee. His putting has been predictably strong. However, his iron play is still inconsistent, similar to the Masters, and he`s not pleased with his chipping (losing nearly two strokes Thursday and improving slightly Friday). He stated, “You need your irons to be very accurate this week, and knowing my wedges aren`t my strongest suit, that makes it a bit tougher.” He added, “It`s a good test. I just need my putting to be a bit better and keep playing as I am. I could easily be 7 or 8 under right now, or I could be even par. So, I`ll just keep progressing, and I believe a 65 or 64 is achievable. I almost did it today, and I definitely saw the possibility, but didn`t execute it.”
Uggetti: Many prominent players are positioned outside the current top 10. Given that the tournament still feels quite open, theoretically, anyone could make a run. However, even on a course like Quail Hollow, I expect the leading contenders to eventually separate themselves. And despite his recent difficulties in major championships, Jon Rahm is arguably unmatched at doing this. The Spaniard has played two quiet yet very solid rounds and enters the weekend at 2 under par, six shots adrift of Vegas. Rahm commented, “I think I`m in a good spot. Plus, I feel like I`m improving and gaining confidence with my swing. I hit many good shots today and created several opportunities.” Discussions around Rahm in majors have focused on his inability to compete seriously since winning the 2023 Masters, but it`s easy to overlook that he was previously one of the most consistent and dominant players. He continues to achieve top-10 finishes on the LIV circuit, and I wouldn`t be surprised to see him contend for the lead this weekend. He could certainly benefit from a strong performance.
How many shots back is too much to contend?
Uggetti: Is it overly optimistic to suggest that anyone who made the cut could win? Probably. But this tournament setup, typical of many PGAs, has kept the leaderboard quite compressed. Even with Vegas at 8 under, players like Collin Morikawa (even par) and Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele (1 over) are capable of shooting very low scores and mounting a charge. In my view, the real frontrunner right now is Scheffler at 5 under, although he would need to stumble, which seems unlikely. Players such as Morikawa, Schauffele, and McIlroy would likely need rounds in the mid-to-low 60s to have a realistic chance, but it`s not impossible. A more pragmatic perspective is that being 1 under par is probably too far back. Being four shots behind Scheffler and seven behind the overall leader presents a significant challenge.
Who is your pick to win this weekend?
Schlabach: I chose Scottie after the first round, and he improved by one stroke on Friday with a 3-under 68, putting him tied for fifth. He showed improvement in almost all aspects of his game in the second round, except for driving accuracy (hitting only six of 14 fairways). Scheffler commented, “I like the position I`m in heading into the weekend. Naturally, I wish I were slightly higher on the leaderboard. I feel I maximized my performance over the last two days. As the round progressed, my swing felt better, and I managed to hit crucial shots late on to create opportunities. I`m looking forward to the weekend.” Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 U.S. Open champion, is the only other player in the top 10 who has won a major. I don`t expect Vegas, Matthieu Pavon, Michael Thorbjornsen, Alex Smalley, or Sam Stevens to withstand a charge from Scheffler.
Uggetti: Scheffler feels almost certain to contend, especially considering he hasn`t yet delivered a round truly showcasing his status as the undisputed World No. 1. However, I keep thinking about Bryson. He hasn`t been flawless this week and is clearly struggling with his approach shots (ranked 77th in the field), but it feels like he`s on the verge of a round where everything aligns. His driving remains an incredible advantage; he just needs to hit more fairways consistently to have a winning chance.
Biggest disappointment among players missing the cut?
Schlabach: Many strong contenders missed the cut, including top golfers like Justin Thomas (3 over), Hideki Matsuyama (3 over), Ludvig Åberg (3 over), Justin Rose (9 over), and Russell Henley (10 over). I would probably name JT as the biggest disappointment because I thought he had a strong possibility of performing well this week. He won the RBC Heritage just three weeks prior and secured his first major championship at the 2017 PGA Championship, also held at Quail Hollow. Thomas struggled with accuracy, hitting only 13 of 28 fairways (4 of 14 in the first round) and 16 of 36 greens. While he made nine birdies, these were offset by too many errors.
Uggetti: I`ll choose Aberg. He had a mixed performance entering the week, but Quail Hollow seemed like a course that would suit his game well. Instead, he finished 145th in strokes gained: driving and 86th in approach play. While the sample size is small and expectations might be too high too quickly, this marks his second missed cut in two PGA Championship appearances.