After the Boston Celtics, the reigning champions, attempted 61 three-pointers in their opening game against the New York Knicks, a game broadcast nationally, it ignited a widespread discussion that has lasted throughout the season. This number of attempts tied for the second-highest in a standard NBA game.
The central question became: How many 3-pointers are excessive? This isn`t solely a Celtics phenomenon. After stabilizing at around 35 three-point attempts per game for the previous half-decade—already a 50% increase from a decade prior (22.4 per game)—the rate has climbed to 37.5 attempts per game in the 2024-25 season. Amidst concerns over declining national TV ratings early in the season, the prevalence of 3-pointers was quickly pointed to as a potential cause.
However, current league analysis indicates that fans generally hold a positive view of the NBA`s current style of play and the frequency of 3-point shots. Therefore, significant rule changes in the near future appear unlikely.
Despite this general acceptance, Daryl Morey, president of basketball operations for the Philadelphia 76ers and a key figure in the 3-point revolution, voiced a contrasting opinion. At the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, he stated that the game has reached a point where the emphasis on 3-pointers is beginning to negatively impact the sport.
Let`s delve into the data surrounding 3-point shots, Morey`s argument regarding their excessive value, and the actual fan sentiment concerning the current state of basketball.
The Celtics: Pushing Boundaries and Shaping the Narrative
A year prior, the optimal strategy for NBA teams regarding 3-point shooting was not definitively established. Teams had already maximized the easy gains by converting open 2-point catch-and-shoot opportunities into more valuable 3-point attempts. During Morey`s tenure with the Houston Rockets, prioritizing 3-pointers was seen as an innovative tactic.
Between the 2004-05 and 2018-19 seasons, teams that attempted the most 3-pointers in a game won 52% of the time, which alone could elevate a team significantly above a .500 record. Partly due to the Rockets` success, this trend reversed. In the 2023-24 regular season, teams shooting more 3-pointers won only 48% of games, marking the fourth instance in five years where this strategy resulted in a sub-.500 win rate.
However, the trend shifted again. In the 2024 playoffs, teams that took more 3-pointers achieved a 51-28 record (.646). Notably, the two teams leading in 3-point attempt rate during the regular season, Boston and Dallas, contested the NBA Finals, with Boston ultimately winning.
Beginning with the Celtics` opening night victory—where they tied an NBA record with 29 made 3-pointers, attempting to break the record in the final minutes—it became clear that 3-point attempts were on the rise.
NBA executive Evan Wasch commented on the significant narrative impact of that opening game, suggesting that it served as a catalyst for the ongoing discussion about 3-pointers throughout the season.
The decline in NBA national TV viewership during the initial two months of the season further fueled the debate. Several NBA doubleheaders coincided with the highly watched World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, including games featuring major market teams like the Knicks and Lakers on the same night as Game 1 of the World Series.
These lower ratings provided a backdrop for critics to attribute viewership decline to the increased volume of 3-pointers, despite lacking direct evidence. Wasch noted that this narrative gained traction and may have influenced fan perception. League surveys and social media analysis indicated growing fan frustration with the number of 3-pointers and overall style of play about a month into the season.
Wasch acknowledged that this data might reflect a delayed reaction or that the ongoing discussion itself was shaping perceptions. Nevertheless, the increase in 3-point attempts in NBA games is undeniable, reversing a previous trend that suggested peak 3-pointers had been reached. Morey believes he understands the underlying cause.
Is it Time to Reassess the 3-Point Shot? Concerns of Game Disruption
Morey`s use of the Sloan panel, titled provocatively “Have the nerds ruined basketball?”, to advocate for NBA changes to reduce 3-point attempts is notable, considering his pioneering role in their proliferation. Aside from Stephen Curry, Morey is arguably most associated with the surge in 3-point shooting rates, particularly through his innovative strategies with the Houston Rockets.
Starting with their G League affiliate, Rio Grande Valley, the Rockets experimented by virtually eliminating 2-point attempts outside the paint while maintaining a fast pace. They became the first team to attempt more 3-pointers than 2-pointers, achieving a franchise-record 65 wins in the 2017-18 season. Morey`s association with this style was so strong it was dubbed “Moreyball.”
Morey`s concern isn`t necessarily with the current volume of 3-pointers but with the fundamental game design.
He argues that when introduced, the significant point advantage of the 3-pointer was necessary to incentivize long-range shooting, especially given initially low success rates.
It wasn`t until the eighth year of the 3-pointer (1986-87) that the NBA`s collective 3-point percentage exceeded 30%. It took another six years (1992-93) for league-wide accuracy to reach a point where the average 3-pointer was statistically worth more than one point.
Currently, with a league average of 36% on 3-pointers, each attempt yields approximately 1.07 points. To match this value with 2-pointers, players would need to shoot 53.5%. This calculation underscores Morey`s strategy of discouraging 2-pointers outside the paint, where the league collectively shoots around 42%—only marginally better than 3-point accuracy and far less than the proportional point value difference.
Morey contends that if open mid-range shots from top players are less valuable than contested, off-dribble 3-pointers, it`s detrimental to the game. He believes the league office should address this imbalance, as teams will naturally optimize for point efficiency.
However, most league executives are not primarily focused on reducing 3-point attempts. Their main goal remains building the most competitive team, not necessarily ensuring the most aesthetically pleasing game.
Morey acknowledges that teams and analysts are simply doing their jobs to maximize wins, but he reiterates that the 3-pointer`s 50% point advantage is excessive and “breaks the game.”
NBA executive Wasch counters that game design should prioritize fan entertainment, and current data suggests fans are more positive than negative about the prevalence of 3-point shooting.
NBA`s Current Stance: No Issue with 3-Pointers—For Now
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has acknowledged the possibility of adjusting rules to modify playing styles, including the 3-point line.
Silver mentioned at the NBA Cup final that while historically the 3-point line has been adjusted, he doesn`t believe moving it is the current solution. He suggests it might not increase mid-range shots, but rather congest the area under the basket.
He also noted that offenses might appear too similar, with teams mirroring each other, which warrants attention.
By the All-Star Game, Silver expressed a more positive outlook on the state of NBA play.
He affirmed ongoing monitoring and study but stated satisfaction with the current state of the game.
Wasch`s summary of fan research aligns with Silver`s sentiment, indicating generally positive fan reception of the 3-point revolution, pace, space, player athleticism, and inside scoring.
He acknowledges the open question of whether the league might be approaching a point of excess, potentially alienating some fans. However, he does not see a fundamental flaw in game design, as fan entertainment remains the key metric.
League surveys indicate younger fans are even more favorable toward the current style and 3-point volume than older fans, although the difference isn`t statistically significant. However, public discourse sometimes misrepresents the reality.
Celtics VP Mike Zarren at the Sloan conference challenged the narrative that all teams play identically due to 3-point emphasis. He pointed out the diversity in play styles remains, despite increased 3-point shooting across the league. He argued that the discussion often incorrectly portrays teams as solely focusing on “jacking 3s,” which he believes is inaccurate.
Future Trends: Could 3-Pointers Increase Further?
Wasch`s analysis indicates that team play style variation remains consistent with past seasons. The gap in 3-point attempt rates between teams like Boston and Denver is typical, suggesting the shift is in the average rate, not the distribution.
Interestingly, the Celtics have slightly reduced their 3-point attempts recently. Initially, they averaged 51.3 attempts per game (56% of shots), but this has decreased to 46.5 (52% of shots) in recent games.
The Celtics` playoff performance, as a likely high seed, will serve as a test case for the optimal 3-point volume strategy. Conversely, a strong playoff showing by the less 3-point-centric Denver Nuggets could highlight alternative paths to offensive success.
Regardless, 3-point attempts are likely to continue increasing. Younger players are driving this trend, particularly with off-the-dribble 3s, exemplified by Victor Wembanyama`s high 3-point attempt rate in his second season.
The notion that teams are forgoing layups for 3-pointers is a misconception. Data shows the proportion of shots in the paint remains consistent, even slightly increasing recently.
Despite suggestions that defenses might over-adjust to 3-pointers, making mid-range shots more valuable, moving the 3-point line further back remains the primary method other leagues have used to reduce 3-point rates.
NCAA Division I men`s basketball once had a higher percentage of shots as 3-pointers than the NBA, but moving the line back led to a decrease. The NBA currently surpasses top college levels in 3-point attempts.
While 3-point attempts might eventually constitute half of all shots, the NBA currently does not perceive their rate as problematic.
Wasch concludes that the NBA is data-driven and responsive to clear trends. While acknowledging room for change, current data and stakeholder consensus do not indicate a need for drastic action regarding 3-point shooting.