On March 14th, when the Utah Jazz welcomed the Toronto Raptors, it was expected to be a chance for the Jazz to break their seven-game home losing streak against a team with a losing record. Jazz`s top scorer, Lauri Markkanen, was back in the starting lineup after missing six of those seven games.
However, instead of a showdown between All-Star forwards Markkanen and Scottie Barnes, fans witnessed a final quarter dominated by inexperienced players and reserves from both squads. Markkanen sat out the entire second half, while Barnes and Toronto`s other experienced starters, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, only played the first couple of minutes of the fourth quarter before being permanently substituted.
As the game reached its critical moments, both teams had a total of five rookies on the court, with only one player, Utah`s Brice Sensabaugh, averaging double-digit points this season. The Raptors emerged victorious, extending the Jazz`s losing streak to eight games. This loss also moved Utah closer to securing one of the NBA`s three worst records, which offers the highest probability of obtaining the coveted No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft.
In the final weeks of almost every NBA season, two distinct races unfold in the standings: one for playoff spots and another for the most favorable draft lottery odds.
This year, the pursuit of better draft picks is intensifying, fueled by the presence of Duke`s standout player, Cooper Flagg, considered a generational talent. Established rebuilding teams like the Jazz, Raptors, and Washington Wizards are joined by teams like the Philadelphia 76ers, San Antonio Spurs, and New Orleans Pelicans, whose seasons have been hampered by injuries. This confluence of factors is driving the race to the bottom to unprecedented levels.
Despite recent regulations aimed at limiting star players from excessive game absences, the issue of tanking persists. While NBA insiders contemplate new strategies to curb this practice, teams aiming for better draft positions are discovering innovative methods to accumulate losses late in the season.
An NBA executive commented, “The upcoming weeks could represent the most extreme period of tanking the league has ever seen.”
Why NBA Teams Engage in Tanking?
Anyone involved in intentionally losing games will admit it`s an unpleasant process. Normally, franchises don`t aim to minimize their win count.
However, these individuals will also assert that securing a high draft pick is the most dependable route to achieving championship-level success. This perspective isn`t expected to change anytime soon.
Evan Wasch, the NBA`s executive vice president of strategy and analytics, stated, “Philosophically, I`m unaware of any significant movement to eliminate our current draft philosophy, which prioritizes awarding top picks to teams most in need of talent. This is a core principle of our current draft system.”
This system, last revised by the NBA in 2019, uses a sliding scale of odds to award teams a top-four draft pick in the annual lottery held in May. The three teams with the poorest records each have a 14% chance of landing the first overall pick and a 52.1% chance of securing a top-four pick. These odds decrease for teams with better records in the lottery, with the team having the best record possessing a mere 0.5% chance of obtaining the top pick and a 2.1% chance of a top-four selection.
The lottery exists for a valid reason. Historically, obtaining a high lottery pick has been the most direct way to acquire a transformative player.
Over the past 45 years, only five championship-winning teams were not led by a player who had won or would win the NBA MVP award: the previous year`s Celtics, the 2019 Toronto Raptors, and the Detroit Pistons in 1989, 1990, and 2004.
Among the other 40 championship teams, one of 14 iconic players was part of at least one: Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Julius Erving, Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O`Neal, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Nikola Jokic.
Five of these 14 players – Johnson, Olajuwon, O`Neal, Duncan, and James – were selected first overall in the draft. Only four – Bryant, Nowitzki, Antetokounmpo, and Jokic – were chosen outside the top seven.
Even among the five exceptional championship teams, only the Raptors, led by Kawhi Leonard, featured a player drafted outside the top three. Chauncey Billups, the 2004 NBA Finals MVP, was picked third overall in 1997, the same draft position as current Celtics stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum in 2016 and 2017. Isiah Thomas, the leader of the 1989 and 1990 Pistons champions, was selected second overall in 1981.
In the last 45 years, only five NBA championship teams were spearheaded by a player drafted outside the top seven picks.
This historical trend explains why NBA teams engage in tanking, and this season is no different.
Tanking Strategies Employed This Season
The NBA`s `player participation policy,` implemented before the 2023-24 season, was not primarily aimed at teams tanking. The league intended to prevent healthy star players from sitting out games unnecessarily. However, the rules also apply to lottery-bound teams, requiring them not to sideline their star players without a valid injury.
Earlier this month, the Jazz violated this policy and were fined $100,000 for not having Markkanen available for a game against the Wizards on March 5th, as well as other games.
While a significant sum, it`s a relatively small cost compared to the potential reward of a top draft pick. With increasing fines for subsequent violations, the Jazz adopted a different approach in their March 14th game against Toronto.
Markkanen`s limited playing time in that game exemplified the strategy the Raptors have been using since the All-Star break: benching key players during critical game moments.
Since the All-Star break, Toronto has played 37.5 `clutch` minutes, defined by NBA Advanced Stats as situations where the score difference is within five points in the last five minutes of regulation or in overtime. The Raptors have allocated more of these clutch minutes to players signed mid-season or on two-way contracts (totaling 46 minutes) than to their leading scorers, Barnes and Barrett (43 minutes).
Conversely, the Jazz have limited Markkanen to only four of their 25 clutch minutes since the All-Star break. Notably, Utah has been cautious about playing Markkanen against other lottery-bound teams. The games Markkanen has missed this season have been against teams with a combined .450 winning percentage, compared to .545 for the teams he has played against.
Walker Kessler, the Jazz`s starting center, has also continued to miss games, including the loss to Toronto. This game was officially listed as a `DNP-CD` – Did Not Play, Coach`s Decision – after Kessler was previously listed as out for rest in six games, including the game Markkanen missed that resulted in the fine.
Jazz coach Will Hardy commented earlier this month, “[Fans] understand we are in a rebuilding phase, but I believe our players compete in a way that remains enjoyable for our fans. Our young players play with great effort and while we may be imperfect, and some games are messy and unpolished, the competitive spirit and youthful energy of these players is something our fans appreciate.”
He added, “For our team, it`s a matter of pride that regardless of who is on the court, our fans know we will play with immense passion and joy.”
Wasch indicated that the NBA will continue to monitor player availability, particularly for star players like Markkanen, but expressed no concerns about teams choosing to bench starters during crucial moments.
“It`s not our role to police rotations in that manner,” Wasch stated. “For the league to intervene and dictate that a team`s choice of one player over another was incorrect, it sets a questionable precedent.”
He also noted, “And sometimes, these younger players actually end up winning the game.”
Cooper Flagg: A Generational Talent Driving Tanking
Entering the college basketball season, questions lingered about whether Cooper Flagg was the top prospect for the 2025 NBA draft. Rutgers` Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper, along with Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe, who impressed internationally with the Bahamas in FIBA Olympic qualifiers, were also considered top contenders.
However, Flagg`s performance, placing him in contention for National Player of the Year despite his young age in college basketball, has largely settled that debate. NBA scouts from teams vying for top draft picks are now focused on assessing Flagg`s ranking among recent No. 1 overall prospects.
One scout remarked about Flagg, “His uniqueness stems from the combination of his youth, even by freshman standards, and his consistent productivity across all facets of the game against elite competition.” Flagg will not turn 19 until December.
Analytics experts at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference recently placed Flagg around the 85th percentile of No. 1 picks, indicating he is projected to be better than 85% of past top selections.
Since 2005, the first draft with the NBA`s current age limit, Flagg`s projected wins above replacement player (WARP) of 5.2 ranks third among top picks, only behind Anthony Davis (2012) and Zion Williamson (2019), another highly touted Duke prospect. Like Flagg, both Davis and Williamson spurred intense races to the bottom of the standings.
Stats-based projections heavily weigh a prospect`s performance relative to their age, which is where Flagg excels. His main competitor for National Player of the Year, Auburn`s fifth-year senior forward Johni Broome, is over four years older.
As the scout pointed out, most players Flagg`s age are still in their senior year of high school. Because Flagg reclassified in the summer of 2023, entering his final year at Montverde Academy in Florida, he would be the second-youngest player at the time of being drafted No. 1, only older than LeBron James. He is even younger than high school draftees Kwame Brown and Dwight Howard.
While Flagg`s age and performance don`t guarantee championships, they explain why teams are exploring new strategies to ensure they can draft him.
Potential Solutions to Address Tanking
The NBA has shown a willingness to implement changes, but these often take time to materialize.
What could be the next measure to combat tanking? We consulted various sources within the league for ideas on potential improvements to the final months of the season:
1. Further Flattening Lottery Odds
The NBA draft lottery once gave all non-playoff teams equal chances to move up. This system changed after the Orlando Magic secured the top pick in 1992 and 1993. In 1993, with rookie Shaquille O`Neal, the Magic had the best record among lottery teams at 41-41. One executive suggested further reducing the difference in odds from the 2019 adjustments.
However, this approach has a clear downside: if too many teams have similar odds for the top pick, more teams might consider whether a chance at a franchise player is preferable to a playoff push.
2. Rewarding Wins After the All-Star Break
Currently, bottom-ranked teams are rewarded for losing as many games as possible in the last two months of the season. What if this concept was reversed?
By using a portion of the second-half schedule (e.g., post-All-Star break or the final 20 games) to work in reverse – where the most wins in that period determine lottery odds – it would incentivize struggling teams to compete and play their best players.
Consider last season: the Spurs had an 11-44 record (.200) before the All-Star break but improved to 11-16 (.407) afterward. By combining their pre-break wins and post-break losses (and vice versa), the Spurs` `lottery record` of 27-55 – despite an actual record of 22-60 – would be rewarded with better lottery odds for their improved competitiveness.
An executive stated, “This would motivate everyone to compete until the end.”
3. Reforming or Eliminating Pick Protections
The most blatant cases of tanking often involve teams trying to retain their lottery draft pick. The Dallas Mavericks` tanking in their final games of 2023 to keep a top-10 protected pick is a recent, prominent example. This cost the Mavericks $750,000 but resulted in acquiring starting center Dereck Lively II, a key player in their 2024 Finals appearance. This season, the 76ers aim to keep their top-6 protected pick after injuries derailed their season.
Multiple sources suggested simplifying pick protections to reduce tanking. Options could include top-4 protection (lottery jump), lottery protection, or no protection at all. This change would eliminate the most egregious instances of tanking.
Wasch explained, “One goal of lottery reform was to even out outcomes within the lottery, so no team would perceive a significant advantage in being the third-worst versus the fourth-worst, or eighth-worst versus ninth-worst. We focused heavily on that.”
He added, “However, pick protection somewhat contradicts this. If a team has a top-10 protected pick, their final standing, whether 10th or 11th worst, becomes very significant. This is a dynamic we are observing.”
4. Lottery Odds Based on Head-to-Head Records Among Lottery Teams
One executive proposed ranking the 14 lottery teams based on their head-to-head records against each other during the regular season. This would incentivize competition in every game, particularly against other lottery-bound teams.
However, this idea has a potential drawback: teams on the edge of play-in contention might be incentivized to pursue a top draft pick instead of playoff contention.
5. Enforcing Existing Rules
Some within the league believe the current system is adequate. They argue that bad teams are inherent in the sport, and the competition for lottery positioning is a natural part of it.
With increasing instances of teams intentionally losing, some sources suggest that stricter enforcement against teams resting healthy players could resolve many current concerns, rather than further system adjustments. As one executive stated, “Let`s start there.”
Ultimately, obtaining a top draft pick remains the most reliable path to acquiring a franchise-altering player. The NBA has already attempted to curb tanking by flattening lottery odds and introducing play-in games to give more teams incentive to compete. Wasch noted, “I think we`ve seen many positive trends.”
Wasch also indicated that tanking and potential solutions are likely to be discussed by the NBA`s competition committee.
“Following this season, it`s reasonable to expect we`ll re-engage with our competition committee and explore if there are further steps to address this issue,” Wasch concluded.