By Pamela Maldonado
Betting on golf can be a complex, exciting, and sometimes frustrating endeavor, much like facing a crucial putt with friends watching. While many betting options exist, simply picking outright winners without a strategy often leads to financial difficulty.
This guide provides a step-by-step approach to building a smart golf betting strategy, focusing on balancing risk and reward to increase your chances of success throughout the tournament.
Three main factors are crucial when betting on golf: course suitability, recent performance, and past results at the course.
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Course suitability considers how a golfer`s skills match the course design – whether it favors long hitters, precise iron play, or strong putting.
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Recent performance examines a player`s latest results, momentum, and confidence. A golfer playing well from tee to green is a better bet than one struggling with their swing.
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Course history refers to a player`s past success or comfort level at a specific venue, influenced by factors like turf type or positive memories. The ideal scenario is when all three factors align. However, finding value often involves prioritizing one factor over others.
Understanding Your Betting Options
Golf betting offers more than just picking the tournament winner. Numerous betting types are available, varying in risk level. Structuring your bets intelligently can allow you to profit even if your primary outright pick doesn`t win. Here’s an overview of common wager types:
Outright winner
This is the most straightforward bet: predicting which player will win the tournament. Due to the large fields in golf, outright odds are attractive but difficult to hit. Betting only on outright winners, even at long odds like 30-1, often results in many losing weekends, leaving your bankroll looking sparse.
Top-5, top-10 and top-20 finishes
These are more conservative bets where you predict a player to finish within the top 5, 10, or 20. Top 20 bets offer the highest probability. Instead of needing a win, the player just needs to be in the specified range. While a top-20 bet at +120 might seem less exciting, consistently winning these helps maintain your bankroll while you place smaller bets on outright winners. A player at 30-1 to win has a 3.2% implied probability, compared to a top-20 bet at +200 (33% implied probability). This significant difference is why betting smaller amounts on long odds and larger amounts on higher-probability bets is recommended.
First-round leader
This bet adds excitement by focusing only on the first 18 holes. You just need your chosen golfer to lead after Round 1. As first-round leader odds are often 20-1 or higher, these bets are typically placed using smaller bet sizes (fractions of a unit). Factors like morning tee times, favorable weather, and aggressive players are key considerations. If you believe a player could win the tournament, it makes sense to bet on them starting strong. A winning first-round leader bet can effectively fund your other wagers for the rest of the event.
Head-to-head matchups
Compared to betting on outright winners (aiming for the pin), matchup bets are a safer play (like hitting the middle of the green). You simply choose one golfer to finish ahead of another, either for a single round or the entire tournament. This offers more control. Betting on the full tournament matchup is often preferred as it considers performance over four days, reducing the volatility of a single round. Three-ball matchups involve picking one player out of three to finish best, offering longer odds but also higher risk.
Props and majors-only markets
Major championships provide a variety of unique betting opportunities. Some props are available weekly, while others are specific to golf`s biggest events:
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Top American, top European, etc.: Betting on the highest-finishing player from a particular region (e.g., Top American, Top European).
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Will there be a hole-in-one?: Predicting if a hole-in-one will occur during the tournament – a simple, exciting bet.
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Lowest round, highest round: Betting on the lowest or highest single-round score posted during the event.
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Make the cut parlays: Parlay bets combining multiple players to successfully make the cut.
Structuring Your Bets and Managing Bankroll
Placing bets randomly and hoping for a big win is not a strategy; it`s a quick way to deplete your funds before the tournament concludes. Similarly, betting the same amount on every wager is like using a putter from the fairway – inappropriate for the situation.
Instead, it`s recommended to build your betting card around a few key players and combine various bet types to balance risk and potential reward. Given the wide range of golf odds, your bet size should be proportional to the implied probability and risk.
This strategy works because top-20 bets offer consistency, hitting more frequently and helping to maintain your bankroll. Top-10 and top-5 bets might use around 0.5 units, while outright winner bets, being much harder to hit, could range from 0.1 to 0.25 units. First-round leader bets carry higher risk but offer high rewards, allowing for smaller bet sizes. Distributing bets across different markets ensures you have action throughout the tournament. If your outright pick underperforms, your top-20 bet might still win. Generally, the longer the odds, the smaller the bet size should be, reflecting the lower implied probability of winning. Betting too much on long shots can quickly lead to significant losses during a cold streak.
If you`re betting on multiple players (e.g., five or more), your total staked amount must be balanced to avoid excessive exposure to any single player. As you add more players, you should adjust individual bet sizes downwards to manage your overall risk.
Major Championships and Golf`s `Fifth Major`
As with any form of gambling, successful golf betting requires discipline and should ideally complement your viewing experience. It can be challenging, and consistently hitting outright winners weekly is unrealistic. However, by structuring bets smartly, managing risk, and diversifying across different markets, you can aim for profitability and maintain interest throughout the tournament.
Key Tournaments:
- PGA Championship: May 15-18, Quail Hollow Club (Charlotte, N.C.)
- U.S. Open: June 12-15, Oakmont (Pa.) Country Club
- The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush (Northern Ireland)
- Masters Tournament
- The Players Championship
Featuring one of the strongest fields and a large prize purse at TPC Sawgrass, The Players Championship is often considered golf`s `fifth major`. Although not officially a major, its history, drama, and signature island green 17th hole make it a premier annual event.
2025 PGA Championship Betting Picks
Quail Hollow demands both power and strategic thinking. Players need to be aggressive off the tee while also navigating challenging shots effectively. The course rewards golfers who know when to take risks and when to play conservatively. For the 2025 PGA Championship, the focus is on players who can be bold under pressure. Success at Quail Hollow typically favors long hitters with strong long iron play and excellent scrambling ability.
This year`s PGA Championship at Quail Hollow sets up a compelling narrative, potentially pitting Rory McIlroy against LIV Golf players. McIlroy boasts significant history, current form, and unparalleled course familiarity here; he`s often considered the dominant player at this venue. Players like Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm from LIV Golf arrive with something to prove, entering what is effectively Rory`s home turf. This creates a dynamic beyond just skill, involving pride and the desire to make a statement. If there`s one course where Rory McIlroy is expected to assert his dominance, it`s Quail Hollow.
Here are some recommended bets for golf`s second major.
| Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
| Rory McIlroy | +475 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +850 |
| Odds provided are illustrative. | |
Recommended Bets
Rory McIlroy Top 5 (+110) and Win (+475)
Betting on the second-favorite might seem unoriginal, but McIlroy at Quail Hollow is like a lion in its natural habitat. He possesses deep knowledge of the course, having won there four times, including the 2010 PGA Championship and the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship. His driving distance and ability to score on par-5s make him an ideal fit. Quail Hollow favors aggressive drivers who can shape their shots, and McIlroy`s high fade is perfectly suited. Fresh off a 2025 Masters victory, Rory demonstrated his ability to close out a major under pressure and manage the game`s challenges. His putting, historically an area of concern, has been solid, and carrying that form to Charlotte makes him a strong contender to dominate. He ranks fourth in strokes gained on approach over his last 32 rounds. Quail Hollow`s greens are challenging, but McIlroy`s confident stroke on fast putting surfaces is an advantage when he`s performing well. Ranking second in strokes gained tee-to-green and excelling with long irons are critical skills for this course exceeding 7,500 yards. His elite ball striking and familiarity make him a confident pick for both a top-5 finish and the outright win. Unlike the Masters, where waiting for live odds after Round 1 was advised, his strong history here makes pre-tournament odds appealing. If the outright winner odds are too low for your preference, the Top 5 bet is a solid alternative.
Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (+105)
For a Top 5 bet, only Rory and Scottie provide this level of confidence. Scheffler exemplifies consistency, achieving numerous top finishes in strong fields this season, including three top-5s in his last four starts and a dominant win at the RBC Heritage at 31-under par. He currently has the best tee-to-green game on tour and leads in strokes gained total. This remarkable consistency translates well, even at Quail Hollow, where he is making his PGA Tour debut. While his course debut adds some risk, his form justifies it. His recent putting improvements are a significant advantage. Even on an off-day, his exceptional ball striking keeps him competitive. Given his strong upward trend in form, including a recent win, and his composure in major championships, betting Scottie for a Top 5 at plus odds represents a calculated and appealing wager.
Jon Rahm Top 20 (-105)
Betting Jon Rahm for a Top 20 finish at the PGA Championship is a logical choice. Quail Hollow suits his game well: powerful off the tee, accurate with long irons, and capable of performing in difficult conditions. He ranks ninth in driving distance and eleventh in accuracy, possessing the ideal combination of power and control needed for this course. Unlike Augusta, where he uncharacteristically lost strokes on approach (only the second time that year), Quail Hollow rewards his consistent tee-to-green play. Rahm`s long game is usually reliable, and this course allows him to utilize that strength without being severely penalized for occasional iron misses. The -105 price feels like good value for a player who has secured a top-15 finish in five of his last ten major appearances.
Corey Conners Top 20 (+200)
Corey Conners consistently impresses with his game. His tee-to-green play is sharp, ranking sixth in the field, which is crucial at Quail Hollow. His driving accuracy (17th) is a significant advantage, especially with thick rough. Furthermore, his strong long iron play, particularly from 200-225 yards (eighth), gives him an edge on the longer par-4s. While his putting can be inconsistent, he doesn`t need an exceptional week on the greens to achieve a top-20 finish. At +200 odds, there is value in a player whose game suits this course well and who has been consistently finishing in the top 20 (six times in his last seven starts). The implied probability at +200 seems undervalued for a player of his skill level on this layout.
Tournament Head-to-Head Matchups
Rory McIlroy (-125) vs. Bryson DeChambeau
This matchup favors consistency. McIlroy`s game is reliable over four rounds on a demanding course like Quail Hollow, whereas DeChambeau can be more inconsistent, as seen at Augusta where his final round was significantly higher than his first three. If DeChambeau`s driving or putting falters, his score can rise quickly. McIlroy`s proven track record at Quail Hollow and well-rounded game provide the advantage. While Bryson may drive longer, Rory`s blend of distance and accuracy offers greater reliability.
Jon Rahm (-135) vs. Collin Morikawa
On a course over 7,500 yards, Rahm`s combination of length and accuracy off the tee is a significant asset. Even when not playing his best, Rahm typically manages a solid finish. Morikawa, conversely, can struggle if his putting or short game isn`t sharp, leading to higher volatility. This makes Morikawa a riskier head-to-head bet. This wager relies on Rahm`s powerful and accurate driving, combined with his ability to limit errors – skills essential for navigating Quail Hollow over four rounds.
Betting Strategy for Bryson DeChambeau
While betting on DeChambeau to win is understandable given his powerful, aggressive style well-suited for Quail Hollow, the Top 10 odds at +110 might not offer sufficient value. DeChambeau`s performance can vary significantly; he can be dominant when sharp but can struggle quickly after a single poor shot. A cautious approach might involve waiting to observe his performance in Round 1 before placing a bet. If he shows good form early, you may find more favorable live odds for a Top 10 or even a Top 5 finish.