Placing bets on golf can be a captivating, frustrating, and thrilling challenge – akin to standing over a make-or-break putt with spectators watching. There`s a wide array of betting approaches for a tournament. However, simply picking potential winners randomly and hoping for a big payday will likely leave your finances in the rough.
Instead, consider implementing a structured betting strategy similar to how experienced bettors build their card. This involves balancing potential rewards with risks to ensure you remain competitive financially through Sunday.
When betting on golf, three key elements are frequently considered: how well a golfer`s game suits the course, their recent performance trend, and their history at that specific venue.
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Course suitability assesses if a player`s strengths match the course layout – for instance, whether it favors powerful hitters, demands precise ball-striking, or is decided by putting prowess.
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Current performance examines recent finishes, momentum, and confidence. A player hitting the ball well in the preceding weeks is generally a more attractive bet than one struggling with their swing.
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Course history relates to a player`s comfort level and past results on a particular track, possibly due to the grass type or positive memories. The ideal scenario is when all three factors align. Yet, smart betting often involves finding value by prioritizing one or two factors over the others.
Understanding Your Betting Options
Golf wagering extends far beyond merely selecting the champion. Numerous other bet types offer action, some carrying less risk. Structuring your bets thoughtfully can allow you to profit even if your chosen winner doesn`t perform as expected. Here`s a look at popular betting markets:
Outright Winner
This is the straightforward bet on who will finish first and claim the trophy. Given the large fields in golf, outright odds are often quite high, reflecting the difficulty of correctly picking the winner. Betting on long shots can be exciting, but relying solely on outright winner bets will likely lead to frequent losses.
Top-5, Top-10, and Top-20 Finishes
These represent more conservative bets, with top-20 finishes being the most probable. Instead of needing a golfer to win, they just need to place within the specified range. A top-20 bet at positive odds might not seem as thrilling as a winner bet, but consistently cashing these bets helps maintain your bankroll while you also take shots on outrights.
A golfer with 30-1 odds to win has an implied probability of roughly 3.2%. Compare this to a top-20 bet at +200 odds (implying a 33% probability) – the difference is significant. This explains why it`s advisable to bet less on high-odds, low-probability outcomes and more on wagers with a higher chance of success.
First-Round Leader
This bet adds early excitement. You only need your selected golfer to hold the lead after the first 18 holes, rather than the entire tournament. Since first-round leader odds are often 20-1 or higher, these are typically bet with smaller amounts. Factors like favorable morning tee times, calm weather, and players known for aggressive starts are important to consider. If you like a player`s chances to contend overall, risking a small amount on them starting strongly makes sense. If it hits, any subsequent bets could feel like `free rolls`.
Head-to-Head Matchups
While betting on a winner is a high-risk shot, matchup bets are a more controlled approach. You simply pick one golfer to finish ahead of another, either for a single round or the whole tournament. Betting on the full tournament matchup offers a view of performance over four days, less volatile than a single round. There are also three-ball matchups involving three players, offering higher odds but increased risk.
Props and Major-Specific Markets
Major championships offer a wider variety of specific bets. Some are available weekly, while others are unique to the biggest events:
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Top Nationality/Region: Betting on the highest finishing player from a specific country or continent (e.g., Top American, Top European).
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Hole-in-One: A simple yes/no bet on whether any player makes an ace during the tournament.
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Lowest/Highest Round: Betting on the lowest or highest score posted by any player in a round.
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Make the Cut Parlays: Combining multiple players to successfully make the cut and play the weekend.
Structuring Your Betting Card and Managing Bet Size
Randomly picking players without a plan is not a strategy for long-term success; it`s a quick way to deplete your funds. And betting the same amount on every wager is like using the wrong club for the shot. A better approach is to build your betting card around a few core players and mix in different bet types to balance risk and reward. Given the wide range of golf odds, your bet size should be proportional to the implied probability and risk.
Top-20 bets offer stability and more frequent wins, helping maintain your bankroll. Top-10 and Top-5 bets might use a slightly smaller unit size, while outright winner bets, being the hardest to hit, should involve the smallest stakes (e.g., 0.2 to 0.25 units). First-round leader bets are also high-risk, high-reward and suit smaller bets. Diversifying across different markets keeps you engaged throughout the tournament. If your outright pick misses the cut, a top-20 bet could still cash. Remember, the higher the odds, the smaller your bet should be, as the probability of winning is low. Betting too much on long shots can quickly lead to significant losses.
If you are betting on multiple players (five or more), ensure your total risk is controlled. As you add more players, you must adjust individual bet sizes downwards to manage overall exposure.
Golf`s Premier Events: The Majors and The Players Championship
Like any form of gambling, successful golf betting requires discipline and viewing it as something that enhances your enjoyment of watching the sport. It can be challenging, and expecting to hit an outright winner every week is unrealistic. However, by structuring your bets intelligently, managing risk, and spreading your action across different markets, you can improve your chances of staying profitable and experiencing the excitement through the final round.
U.S. Open: June 12-15, Oakmont (Pa.) Country Club
The Open Championship: July 17-20, Royal Portrush (Northern Ireland)
PGA Championship: Scottie Scheffler (-11)
Masters Tournament: Rory McIlroy (-11, won in playoff)
The Players Championship: Rory McIlroy (-12, won in playoff)
With a remarkably strong field, significant prize money, and the challenging TPC Sawgrass course, The Players Championship is often called the `fifth major.` While not officially a major, its drama, history, and the iconic 17th island green make it one of golf`s standout tournaments annually.
Analysis for the 2025 U.S. Open
The PGA Tour visits Oakmont Golf Club for the third major of the year, the U.S. Open. Expect a demanding test in the best sense: thick rough, narrow fairways, exceptionally fast greens, and a winning score likely close to or slightly under par. It will truly challenge the world`s elite players.
Oakmont favors golfers who excel under pressure. It`s a course that demands strategic thinking and execution. To contend here, players need exceptional accuracy off the tee, precise iron play from mid to long range, and superb touch on the greens, particularly with pace control given their speed and slopes.
Even par is a good score at Oakmont. A round of 66 (-4) would be considered legendary. When betting or setting fantasy lineups, target players comfortable grinding out scores around par rather than those who need numerous birdies.
Let`s look at some potential wagers for the third major of 2025.
My Favorite Bets
Collin Morikawa Top 20 (+110)
If you`re building a betting card based on accuracy, discipline, and high-level ball-striking potential, Morikawa is a prime candidate. Oakmont`s layout minimizes the disadvantage of shorter hitters, and his strong strokes gained statistics on difficult courses indicate he performs well under tough conditions. His ranking near the top for approach play and driving accuracy aligns perfectly with the key requirements for Oakmont.
Although his 2025 victory count isn`t high, he has shown consistent performance, with eight top-20 finishes in eleven starts. Morikawa typically handles pressure well. While he might feel internal expectations, his game often appears sharpest when conditions are most challenging. If his short game is adequate, expect him to be in contention for a high finish.
Corey Conners Top 20 (+150)
Despite a T27 finish in his last start in Canada, Conners remains one of the best value plays in the field. He is a top-tier ball-striker known for accuracy, is currently in good form, and his style of play is well-suited for Oakmont`s emphasis on discipline over power.
He ranks highly in driving accuracy and has consistently gained strokes tee-to-green in most starts this year. His putting is his primary weakness, but his elite ball-striking tends to hold up when other players falter. Conners might not make spectacular shots, but his steady play is often exactly what`s needed at a demanding course like Oakmont.
Keegan Bradley Top 20 (+260)
Bradley is among the field`s top players in tee-to-green performance recently. His seventh-place finish at the 2022 U.S. Open and his current momentum, with back-to-back top-10s in the PGA Championship and The Memorial, suggest he has the game to compete, provided his putting holds up.
Bradley possesses winning-level ball-striking, a surprisingly good short game, and longer odds than his recent form warrants. He is a strong addition to a betting card, and a small wager on him for the outright win at 75-1 could be a rewarding long shot.
Approach to Betting on Scottie Scheffler
Let`s acknowledge the reality: his odds are very short, such as -150 for a top 5 finish and +275 to win. However, these odds reflect his dominant form. Scheffler is elite in virtually every aspect of the game, with no apparent weaknesses.
No other player is currently performing at Scheffler`s level. The -150 price for a top 5 is high but justified because he is a favorite who consistently delivers. For a stable element on your betting card, a Scottie Scheffler top 5 bet is reliable. He has finished inside the top five in six of his last eight tournaments and continues to lead in key metrics like strokes gained tee-to-green and approach. This bet is based on proven consistency and form.
If you prefer better odds, consider other options like betting on Scheffler to be the first-round leader at 12-1, or waiting for potentially better live odds for a top 5 or outright win. Oakmont`s tough setup often leads to volatility, which can create opportunities for live betting after the initial rounds. Betting on his lowest score in Round 2 (after Round 1 concludes) could also be a smart play, as Scheffler leads the Tour in second-round scoring average.
Unless you are anchoring a parlay or seeking safety from the start, waiting for live betting opportunities might be a sharper strategy, especially when other top 20 plays offer more favorable upfront odds. If he starts flawlessly and the opportunity is missed? Then simply appreciate witnessing a performance of greatness.
Why Avoiding Jon Rahm Might Be Prudent
Initially, a top 10 bet (+130) or possibly an outright bet (12-1) on Rahm seemed appealing after his top-15 finishes at the Masters and PGA Championship. However, opting against these bets appears wiser. He lost strokes on approach in all four rounds at Augusta, which is concerning for a player known for his ball-striking, particularly before playing a course like Oakmont where iron play is critical.
While he improved at the PGA Championship, that single strong performance is somewhat isolated among his LIV top-10 finishes, which arguably do not carry the same competitive weight. Now, a top 10 bet is offered at +130? It`s worth passing. There has been a perceived tension in Rahm`s game recently in Tour events that creates hesitation. At a venue as demanding as Oakmont, poise and control are paramount, not the potential for frustration.