Introduction
Heading into the preseason, the Houston Rockets appeared poised as strong contenders in the Western Conference, bolstered by the acquisitions of Kevin Durant and seasoned role players Dorian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela. With point guard Fred VanVleet, who signed a two-year, $50 million contract over the summer, all the pieces seemed in place for the team to challenge the Oklahoma City Thunder and vie for their first NBA championship since 1995. However, during an unofficial team workout in the Bahamas, VanVleet suffered a torn ACL, an injury that could sideline him for the entire season. The Rockets now face the significant challenge of filling his crucial role on the court and in the locker room. How will young talents like Amen Thompson, Reed Sheppard, and others step up to keep the team competitive in the conference race? Following the Rockets` preseason game against the Atlanta Hawks, NBA analysts delved into the injury`s ramifications for the team and its players, discussing potential strategies Houston might employ to strengthen its roster.
Rockets Adapt to a New Reality
During a recent cooldown session at the Memorial Hermann Houston Rockets Training Center, head coach Ime Udoka was observed in conversation with Kevin Durant. Durant is acutely aware of his evolving role in the wake of VanVleet`s injury. While he won`t carry the offensive burden alone, Udoka emphasized that the All-Star veteran will naturally be the central figure in Houston`s collective approach to facilitating offense. The coach indicated that various players, including Reed Sheppard and Amen Thompson, who have some prior experience in a playmaking role, would be thrust into new responsibilities. Udoka acknowledged that the team heavily relied on VanVleet for his veteran experience and high basketball IQ at the point guard position. However, he now envisions a committee approach, where Alperen Sengun and Durant can also initiate plays, leveraging their influence. Udoka promptly communicated this new strategy to the team. Despite VanVleet`s absence, who was slated to be a veteran offensive organizer and a defensive anchor, Udoka remains confident that the current roster possesses enough collective talent to compensate for the loss. In their preseason opener against the Hawks, which Durant sat out, Udoka experimented with different offensive facilitators in a starting lineup featuring Thompson, Sheppard, Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., and Tari Eason. Notably, Thompson, Sengun, and Smith all took turns bringing the ball up the court, consistently finding openings in Atlanta`s defense for drives, helping Houston establish an early lead. Sheppard expressed optimism, stating, “I feel like we can win a lot of games. Expectations are high. We just have to come out and control what we can control. The coaches will put us in the situations they want us in. So we`ll just play how we know how to play and have fun.”
A Setback, Not a Season Derailment
The Rockets` acquisitions of Durant, Finney-Smith, and Capela clearly signaled their immediate ambition to contend in the Western Conference. Any team would be stunned to lose its veteran captain and starting point guard to a season-ending injury. For Houston, the challenge is that their primary replacements — Amen Thompson, who excels defensively but has limited experience at point guard, or Reed Sheppard, the 2024 No. 3 overall pick who, despite being intriguing, barely played as a rookie — aren`t typical choices for a contender`s starting lineup. However, the Rockets are not without options. Durant himself is a complete offensive system and can initiate plays. Sengun can serve as an offensive hub, being one of the league`s top passing big men. Yet, these are all secondary playmaking options, and they don`t fully replicate the frontline leadership that VanVleet provided. Despite this significant setback, the season is not derailed. Houston possesses depth and has time, but it is undeniably a problem. Coach Udoka has begun strategizing how to manage the situation, though a clear-cut solution is yet to emerge. This situation undoubtedly stands as one of the more compelling storylines in the Western Conference as the season approaches.
Rockets Must Account for VanVleet`s Minutes
The loss of VanVleet delivers a considerable blow to the Rockets` statistical win projections. While full projections for all 30 teams are pending, an initial assessment placed Houston fourth in the NBA, aligning with the excitement following the Durant trade. However, substituting VanVleet`s minutes with guards Sheppard and Aaron Holiday, along with increased roles for existing rotation players like Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr., is projected to decrease the Rockets` win total by nearly four games. It`s crucial to remember that even if Thompson assumes VanVleet`s starting point guard role, Houston will still need to reallocate the minutes Thompson was expected to play elsewhere. (Last season, Thompson averaged 35.8 minutes per game when starting with VanVleet, nearly identical to the 36.1 minutes he played in 18 starts when VanVleet was sidelined.) Unless the Rockets consistently deploy larger lineups, this likely means significantly expanded roles for Sheppard and Holiday, who were initially competing for backup minutes. Sheppard played only 654 minutes as a rookie, and Holiday 792. While attention naturally focuses on VanVleet`s offensive impact as a point guard and floor-spacer, projections suggest Houston might miss his defensive presence even more. Sheppard could potentially compensate for some shooting if he improves in his second season, and Thompson and Sengun will take on greater playmaking responsibilities. VanVleet`s robust defensive contribution was an underrated factor in the Rockets` defense, which ranked seventh in defensive rating. Houston allowed 1.9 more points per 100 possessions when VanVleet was off the court compared to when he played, a larger drop-off than their offensive decline without him (1.3 points per 100 possessions worse). Without VanVleet, the Rockets are projected to rank seventh in offensive rating and eleventh in defensive rating. They remain in contention for home-court advantage, holding the fifth-best win projection in the West. This projection also doesn`t account for potential mid-season roster adjustments if Sheppard doesn`t develop as hoped. Nevertheless, the Rockets no longer appear to be the immediate threat to the Thunder that was envisioned after they successfully bolstered their depth post-Durant trade by signing Finney-Smith. Before VanVleet`s injury, the backup point guard spot was identified as the team`s biggest weakness; now, that void is more pronounced than ever.
No Immediate Backcourt Reinforcements Expected
Houston has an open roster spot and will likely apply for a $12.5 million disabled player exception. If the NBA confirms VanVleet`s absence until mid-June, the league would grant this exception, typically allowing Houston to sign or trade for a player on a one-year contract. However, even with a potential $14 million exception, Houston would currently be unable to use it to sign a player (such as former Rockets guard Russell Westbrook, for instance). This is because the team is only $1.25 million below the first apron, having hard-capped itself at that level through its offseason moves. The Rockets could explore trades to address VanVleet`s absence; they possess five tradable first-round picks, including an unprotected 2027 Phoenix pick and two favorable 2029 picks (their own, Suns, and Mavericks). They also hold the right to swap firsts with Brooklyn in 2027. However, the Rockets` main impediment is a lack of tradable contracts. Eight players signed by Houston this summer – VanVleet, Steven Adams, Finney-Smith, Holiday, Jae`Sean Tate, Jeff Green, Josh Okogie, and Capela – are ineligible to be traded until mid-December. Furthermore, Holiday and Tate have veto rights on any trade. Meanwhile, Jabari Smith Jr. signed a rookie extension with a “poison pill” restriction, a clause that has made trading such players exceedingly rare, with nearly 17 years since the last such transaction. With nine players essentially off-limits for trade, the only remaining tradable assets for Houston are starters Durant, Sengun, and Thompson, along with reserves Sheppard and Eason. The combined salary of these two reserves is $16.3 million.
Rupert Hollis