Fantasy Basketball: Eric Karabell’s ‘Do Not Draft’ List

While LaMelo Ball of the Charlotte Hornets posted impressive career-high averages last season (25.2 PPG, 7.4 APG, 3.8 3PG) — stats highly valued in fantasy basketball — these figures require context. A significant number of players surpassed Ball in points, assists, or three-pointers made. More critically, 297 players participated in more NBA games and 177 logged more minutes than Ball last season.

Ball, a talented offensive player, has a persistent issue with availability. Despite being the No. 3 pick in the 2020 NBA draft, his rookie season saw him play 51 games, followed by 75 in his second year. However, over the last three seasons combined, Ball has played just 105 games, with his 2024-25 season ending prematurely in March due to ankle and wrist surgeries. For comparison, even Indiana Pacers reserves T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin played 102 games in just the last season (including playoffs). Such limited playing time, despite his productivity, makes him a risky fantasy pick.

LaMelo Ball`s current ADP (Average Draft Position) in the third or fourth round is overly optimistic given his recurring absence. While he is undoubtedly a great player, fantasy success demands consistent playing time and volume, which Ball has not provided. Many other durable and productive players offer better value. Ball is not unique in his injury struggles; the following players also carry ADPs that suggest unrealistic expectations for their availability.

• Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (ADP 28.4): Morant`s combined physical issues and personal conduct have limited him to just 59 games over the last two seasons, never exceeding 68 games in any single season. Furthermore, his production (points, rebounds, assists) declined last season compared to 2022-23. While Desmond Bane`s departure might increase his usage, a third-round ADP is still too high. Morant is immensely talented and provides highlights, but his consistent availability is a major concern.

• Zion Williamson, PF, New Orleans Pelicans (ADP 35.3): Williamson`s availability is a major red flag, having played only marginally more games than a typical fan last season. Despite his high per-minute scoring efficiency, fantasy value demands consistent minutes. Even in a 70-game season two years ago, his production was significantly lower. He`s not a 30 PPG scorer and contributes little in rebounds or blocks, while negatively impacting free throw percentage. Avoid drafting him in the first five rounds. Kawhi Leonard (LA Clippers SF) should be approached with similar caution; his fantasy output often falls short of expectations, even beyond his missed games.

• Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP 56.6): Embiid`s ADP tends to rise with pre-season optimism, but his injury history, particularly a persistent left knee issue that limited him to just 19 games last season with diminished production, makes him a high-risk pick. Even if cleared for opening day, the 76ers will likely manage his workload carefully. While a sixth-round pick for 50 games of Embiid might seem appealing, it`s safer to let other managers take that gamble and instead target more durable centers like Myles Turner or Jalen Duren, who are available later.

  Injuries are already a problem

• Kyrie Irving, PG, Dallas Mavericks: Irving, who tore his left ACL in March, is not expected back soon. While he might be a stash candidate in an injured list slot, he should not be drafted within the top 100 picks in redraft leagues. Even a return by February`s All-Star break wouldn`t guarantee consistent play for a playoff contender. He hasn`t played more than 60 games since the 2018-19 season.

• Dejounte Murray, PG, Pelicans: Murray, who suffered a torn right Achilles on New Year`s Eve, may not debut until January, and his post-injury production is uncertain. While his assists and steals are valuable, his scoring dropped to 17.5 PPG in his first Pelicans season. Exercise extreme caution; most fantasy managers will lose patience with such long-term absences. Players like Jayson Tatum, Damian Lillard, and Tyrese Haliburton, who also tore Achilles tendons during the NBA playoffs, are expected to miss the entire season, making them clear `do not draft` candidates. Be wary of any player projected to miss the first few months, as their recovery often extends further.

• Paul George, PF, 76ers: George`s inaugural season with the 76ers was disappointing, marked by his characteristic lack of durability and an inability to adapt to the new offense, averaging only 16.2 PPG on 13.9 FGA. His ongoing recovery from summer knee surgery will likely delay his season start and push his ADP outside the top 100. While his current situation is concerning, George could become a valuable draft pick if his ADP drops significantly, as fantasy drafting is fundamentally about finding value.

  It`s not always about the injuries

• Mikal Bridges, SF, New York Knicks: While Mikal Bridges` ironman streak of never missing a game is a significant asset in fantasy, his overall statistical contributions are often underwhelming. He rarely provides strong numbers in rebounds or assists, and his defensive prowess doesn`t consistently translate into fantasy-relevant steals and blocks. Despite the high volume of games, a fifth-round ADP is too high; teammate Josh Hart offers better value with his superior rebounding and passing.

• Kristaps Porzingis, PF, New Atlanta Hawks: Although currently healthy, Porzingis has a history of durability issues. On the Hawks, with Trae Young`s high usage and Onyeka Okongwu handling rebounds, Porzingis is unlikely to reach 20 PPG or 7 RPG. While his ADP has fallen outside the top 50, he could still underperform expectations even in later rounds.

• John Collins, PF, New Clippers: While John Collins posted solid averages (19.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG) in 40 games for the Utah Jazz last season, replicating this production with the Clippers will be challenging. His new team features high-usage players like James Harden, Bradley Beal, and Kawhi Leonard, alongside Ivica Zubac, who led the league in total rebounds. Collins is more likely to revert to his final Hawks season numbers (13.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG), making him a viable pick only if available in the later rounds (Round 10 or beyond).

• Jrue Holiday, PG, New Trail Blazers: Despite a distinguished career marked by defensive accolades and two NBA championships, Jrue Holiday`s fantasy relevance has waned, even with an ADP beyond the 10th round. With the Trail Blazers needing to develop Scoot Henderson, Holiday`s role will likely diminish. A future trade to a contender might not restore his Milwaukee Bucks-era fantasy production, a situation reminiscent of Klay Thompson`s decline in fantasy value, as observed last season.

• Rookies (e.g., Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe): Cooper Flagg (Mavericks SF/PF) is an anomaly among rookies, expected to make an immediate fantasy impact due to his exceptional talent. However, most first-year players struggle to provide fantasy-relevant statistics, often needing time to adjust, as seen with Stephon Castle (San Antonio Spurs PG) last season, whose ROTY-winning performance largely came post-All-Star break and didn`t place him in the top 100 Player Rater. While Flagg is special and likely to be overdrafted, other top picks like Dylan Harper (Spurs PG/SG) and VJ Edgecombe (76ers SG) are unlikely to deliver significant fantasy production in their debut season. Even Flagg, despite his Duke stats (19.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG), might not fully replicate them initially but should still be a solid contributor.