Fantasy Basketball: Category and Roto League Draft Tiers

By André Snellings

The fantasy basketball rankings presented here are built upon my season-long projections for nearly 400 potential NBA rotation players for the upcoming season. In category-based leagues, player ranking differs significantly from points-based formats. There`s less emphasis on raw statistical volume, with greater advantages given to specialists in scarce categories such as blocks, steals, and three-pointers. Conversely, inefficient shooting from the field or the free-throw line significantly penalizes a player`s overall value.

The value of a player`s contribution in any given category directly correlates with its scarcity. For instance, the total number of steals in a game is considerably lower than the total number of assists. Therefore, each steal a player averages will contribute more significantly to their category ranking than each assist. Does that make sense?

Points represent the category with the highest volume, meaning each individual point scored contributes the least to these rankings. Conversely, blocked shots are the least voluminous category, making each block a considerably weighty factor in the overall rankings.

This phenomenon is clearly demonstrated in both the Top 150 category rankings and within the tiered breakdowns provided here. It`s evident that shot-blocking players generally rank much higher in category-based tiers compared to their standings in points-based formats. Broadly speaking, you`ll observe that defensive specialists or three-point shooters tend to perform relatively better, while players who accumulate high volume in points, rebounds, and/or assists fare comparatively worse in category rankings than in points-based systems.

Below, I present my player breakdown into positional tiers, based on my preseason projections.

While my analysis offers valuable insight into the overall structure, you`ll ultimately gain the most benefit by taking a few minutes to create your own player tiers based on your personal valuations. You`d be surprised how much such a small exercise can prepare you for your draft and differentiate you from other league managers.

Point Guard

Thoughts on Point Guards:

• The top two tiers feature significantly more point guards than players from any other position. In fact, their number here equals the combined total of players from all other positions. This is likely because point guards excel in two of the three rare categories: steals and three-pointers.
• While most point guards in these upper tiers are franchise players for their teams, we also observe more specialized players like Derrick White, who excels in three-pointers, steals, and even blocks for a guard.
• Another specialist, reigning steals champion Dyson Daniels, is placed in Tier 3 alongside All-Stars De`Aaron Fox and Jamal Murray. Tiers 3 through 5 each contain three point guards, but by Tiers 6 and 7, their number again rises to five. A key takeaway is that you can acquire a high-caliber point guard at almost any point in the draft, a flexibility not typically available for other positions.

Shooting Guard

Thoughts on Shooting Guards:

• Anthony Edwards is the sole shooting guard in Tier 1, a testament to his leap last season, establishing him as the league`s highest-volume three-point shooter.
• Amen Thompson and Devin Booker comprise Tier 2. Thompson showcases his impressive all-around game with excellent defensive categories, while Booker offers a robust combination of offensive volume and high efficiency.
• Tier 3 is the only high-level tier that includes more shooting guards than any other position, suggesting that if you opt for other positions in the first two rounds, you have a good chance to secure a strong shooting guard in rounds 3 or 4.
• Tiers 4-6 contain two to three players each, but Tiers 7-9 are again populated with more shooting guards than any other position. This breakdown implies that the most opportune times to find good value at shooting guard in your draft are either in rounds 3-5 or in the later rounds.

Small Forward

Thoughts on Small Forwards:

• There are no small forwards in Tier 1. LeBron James`s free throw percentage struggles moved him down to Tier 2.
• Jalen Williams and rookie Cooper Flagg make up Tier 3. For Flagg specifically, the scarcity at small forward, combined with his considerable hype, will likely lead to him being drafted even earlier than these rankings suggest.
• Tiers 4-6 include more small forwards than any other position, offering a diverse range of specializations that could suit various fantasy team compositions.
• The position becomes sparse again in the later tiers, particularly Tier 9. Based on this analysis, the most favorable time to find value at small forward in fantasy drafts is typically in the middle rounds.

Power Forward

Thoughts on Power Forwards:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo is the sole occupant of Tier 1. His presence here, despite his struggles at the free-throw line, highlights his dominant performance across other categories.
• Anthony Davis is in Tier 2, with his injury history and associated availability risk being the only factors preventing him from also being in Tier 1.
• There are at least three players whose primary position is power forward in each of Tiers 3-6, making power forward the only position besides point guard where this consistency holds.
• Power forward becomes the most sparsely populated position from Tiers 7-9. While dual-eligible players mitigate some of this scarcity, the general implication is that if you miss out on an elite power forward early in the draft, you should aim to secure one in the middle rounds, as finding value late becomes challenging.

Center

Thoughts on Centers:

• Value among centers is heavily influenced by shot-blocking ability. This is why, in category rankings, Victor Wembanyama surpasses even the triple-double-averaging Nikola Jokic for the top spot.
• Centers who can both block shots and make three-pointers are even more valuable, which explains why Myles Turner is in Tier 3 and Alex Sarr is in Tier 4.
• Walker Kessler is notably placed in the same Tier 5 as the enigmatic former MVP, Joel Embiid, despite Embiid`s significant injury risk.
• Tiers 1 and 2 each contain two players, while Tiers 3 and 4 each have three. Tier 6 is the first to feature four options, and then Tiers 8-9 collectively offer seven players, including several prominent shot-blockers. This suggests that if you miss out on an elite center early, you`re likely to find suitable options, particularly role players specializing in shot-blocking, later in the draft to fill your center position.