The 2025 NBA play-in tournament starts on Tuesday with two exciting matchups: the Orlando Magic hosting the Atlanta Hawks, and the Golden State Warriors facing off against the Memphis Grizzlies.
Orlando, with a regular season record of 41-41, are favored by 5.5 points with an over/under of 219.5 against the Hawks, who finished just behind at 40-42. Their regular season series was evenly split.
The Warriors and Grizzlies both concluded the season with identical 48-34 records. Despite Golden State winning their season series 3-1, Memphis notably defeated them by a significant 51 points in December. The Warriors are favored by 7.5 points with an over/under of 227.5.
Here are some standout betting opportunities for Tuesday`s play-in games.
Top Bets for Tuesday`s NBA Play-in Games
Paolo Banchero Over 30.5 Points (-110)
Banchero has exceeded this points total in all three regular-season games against the Hawks. Atlanta`s defense ranks among the worst against power forwards, and they lack a strong defensive matchup for Banchero. He has scored more than 30.5 points in 11 of his last 20 games when playing at least 34 minutes.
Onyeka Okongwu Under 25.5 Points and Rebounds (-105)
The Orlando Magic boast the NBA`s top defensive rating over the last 10 games. While Okongwu performed well against Orlando on April 8th, he has stayed under this combined points and rebounds line in 10 of his last 20 games and in both prior matchups against the Magic this season. Orlando has consistently limited opposing centers in points and rebounds in recent games. Given Orlando`s defensive strength and slow pace, Tuesday night might be challenging for Okongwu.
Vince Williams Jr. Under 12.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-125)
Williams has stayed below this combined line in seven of his last 10 games, averaging only 18 minutes of playing time during this stretch. Although he surpassed it in the regular-season finale against Dallas, key Grizzlies players had limited minutes in that game. More significantly, Williams has gone under this number in 9 out of 12 games when sharing the court with Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. He now faces a Warriors team ranked fourth in defensive rating over the last 10 games.
Zach Edey Over 11.5 Rebounds (-130)
Edey is performing strongly for the Grizzlies, having exceeded this rebound mark in four of his last five games, averaging 25.6 rebound chances in around 30 minutes per game. The Golden State Warriors have struggled against centers throughout the season, allowing the sixth-most rebounds per game to this position. Six of the last eight centers they faced have also surpassed their rebound prop bets.
Game Projections and Injury Updates
Game analysis powered by ESPN Analytics Basketball Power Index. Injury updates from Rotowire.com.
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic
7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Hawks +5.5 (-115) | Magic -5.5 (-105)
Money line: Hawks +170 | Magic -200
Total: 219.5 (-105 Over, -115 Under)
BPI Projection: Magic by 4.9, 66% win probability, 213.3 total points.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Trae Young (Questionable – Achilles), Clint Capela (Out – Hand), Larry Nance Jr. (Out – Knee), Jalen Johnson (Out – Shoulder), Kobe Bufkin (Out – Shoulder)
Magic: Jalen Suggs (Out – Knee), Moritz Wagner (Out – Knee)
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET
Line: Grizzlies +7.5 (-115) | Warriors -7.5 (-105)
Money line: Grizzlies +250 | Warriors -315
Total: 227.5 (-115 Over, -105 Under)
BPI Projection: Warriors by 3.5, 62% win probability, 230.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke (Out – Knee), Jaylen Wells (Out – Wrist)
Warriors: No injuries reported