Eastern Conference Semifinals: Examining the Stumbles of the East’s Top Seeds

The initial days of the NBA conference semifinals have unfolded in a way unprecedented in league history.

For the first time, all four road teams secured victories in Game 1, followed by visiting teams winning both Eastern Conference Game 2 matchups.

This unexpected start is particularly striking given the regular-season dominance of the East`s top two squads. Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics notched over 60 wins, averaging 12 more victories than their lower-seeded opponents, the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks.

With the Eastern Conference series paused before resuming Friday – the Pacers and Knicks holding 2-0 leads heading home for Games 3 and 4 – this article delves into the struggles of the favored teams and assesses the likelihood of Boston and Cleveland mounting a comeback to secure an Eastern Conference Finals berth that seemed all but guaranteed just a week prior.

Cavs vs. Pacers: `Spida` Needs Urgent Support

Much like three of the four road wins in Game 1, Indiana`s initial triumph was characterized by exceptionally high 3-point shooting. The Pacers hit 19 of 36 attempts from beyond the arc (53%), while the Cavaliers – who ranked second in 3-point percentage during the regular season – struggled at 9 of 38 (24%).

Unlike other series, rust wasn`t a likely explanation here, as Indiana concluded its five-game victory over the Milwaukee Bucks just one day after Cleveland finished sweeping the Miami Heat.

The shooting disparity lessened somewhat in Game 2, with the Pacers shooting 39% from three compared to the Cavaliers` 28%. Despite missing starter Darius Garland, newly named Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, and key reserve De`Andre Hunter, Cleveland seemed poised to even the series, holding a 17-point lead late in the third quarter and a seven-point advantage before things unraveled. The final minute saw two Cavaliers turnovers and two Indiana offensive rebounds off missed free throws, setting the stage for Tyrese Haliburton`s game-winning plays.

However, Indiana`s position might not be as strong as it appears. Of the four higher-seeded teams to fall behind 2-0 at home since 2021, three managed to rally and force a Game 7 – though two of those, the Celtics in the 2023 conference finals and the Denver Nuggets against the Minnesota Timberwolves last year, ultimately lost the deciding game on their home court.

Donovan Mitchell on Cavs` loss: This is how the playoffs are

Donovan Mitchell discusses his emotions and what the Cavaliers need to do following their Game 2 defeat to the Pacers.

Naturally, Cleveland`s precarious situation makes Friday`s Game 3 a must-win, bringing the Cavaliers` injuries into sharp focus. Hunter and Mobley sustained their injuries in the fourth quarter of Game 1, while Garland has been absent for the team`s last four games, including the first round.

If Donovan Mitchell can deliver a performance similar to the first 47 minutes of Game 2, Cleveland is capable of winning without them. However, Mobley`s return is especially critical. Although Indiana shot less effectively inside the arc on Tuesday, they still scored 50 points in the paint – six more than Cleveland had allowed in any other playoff game, with 26 of those coming in the fourth quarter.

Hunter`s absence is particularly unfortunate as he would be the logical player to step into the lineup in Mobley`s stead. Without Hunter, the Cavaliers fielded only two players taller than 6-foot-5: starting center Jarrett Allen and fill-in power forward Dean Wade. This left Cleveland`s second unit undersized.

The Cavaliers have shown they can win without Garland, but his return would significantly reduce Mitchell`s offensive burden. According to Dan Feldman of the `Dunc`d On Basketball` podcast, Mitchell`s Game 2 usage rate – where he was involved in at least half of his team`s plays with 20-plus shot attempts – was only the sixth instance recorded in Stathead.com`s playoff database. This means, on average, every other Cleveland possession with Mitchell on the court ended with him shooting, turning the ball over, or drawing a free throw. (Given this heavy responsibility, it`s hardly surprising Mitchell appeared fatigued late in the game.)

From a strategic perspective, Indiana`s two opening wins don`t suggest they would be favored over a fully healthy Cavaliers squad on a neutral court.

However, Indiana only needs to secure two more victories in the remaining five games, three of which will be played on their home floor. The timeline for Cleveland`s key players returning to health remains uncertain. As a result, the Pacers are now the clear favorites to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Celtics vs. Knicks: The Three-Pointer Falters for the Champions

As previously noted, the Celtics have faced this exact predicament before, famously falling behind 3-0 to the Miami Heat in 2023 before mounting a rally to force Game 7 – which they subsequently lost at home. In fact, this marks the fourth time an Al Horford-era Celtics team has started a series 0-2 at home, following similar starts against the Chicago Bulls (a series they came back to win) and the Cavaliers (a five-game loss as underdogs) in 2017.

In some respects, this isn`t entirely surprising. Over the past four postseasons, including their defeat in the 2022 Finals and their championship run last season, Boston has performed significantly better away from TD Garden. They boast a 22-9 (.710) record in road playoff games during this period, securing at least one road win in all 12 series played thus far. No other team is more than three games above .500 on the road over the same span.

Celtics coach breaks down final-minute failures vs. Knicks

Joe Mazzulla explains what went wrong for the Celtics in the final minutes against the New York Knicks in Game 2.

Conversely, Boston`s home record over the past four playoffs is just 23-16. Only the Heat (11) have accumulated double-digit home losses in that timeframe, acknowledging that the Celtics have participated in considerably more playoff games than any other team over the last four years.

Given this history, Boston`s Game 1 loss at home to a team they swept 4-0 in the regular season seemed initially like little cause for alarm. Considering they missed a playoff-record 45 three-pointers, the fact they even managed to force overtime could be seen as impressive.

However, defying expectations for a bounce-back, the poor outside shooting persisted into Game 2. Boston attempted fewer threes (40 out of 94 shots, compared to 60 of 97 in Game 1) but again converted them at a meager 25% clip. The Celtics are now just the second team in the last six years to shoot 25% or worse from three in the first two games of a playoff series, joining the 2021 Atlanta Hawks during their Eastern Conference Finals loss to the Bucks.

To some extent, the focus on Boston`s missed three-pointers is perhaps overstated, a consequence of them being tracked separately in the box score. The Celtics actually shot even worse (8-of-33, 24%) on two-point attempts taken outside the restricted area – and these shots didn`t offer the potential bonus of an extra point for makes.

Several of these misses came from Jayson Tatum, who went 0-of-5 on non-paint two-pointers. Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined to miss all five non-paint twos they attempted in the fourth quarter, as Boston appeared to revert to isolation plays (“hero ball”) while New York chipped away at their lead. According to GeniusIQ tracking, only eight of the Celtics` 24 shots in the final period were created off an assist.

Despite Boston`s reputation for struggling in close contests, they actually boasted the NBA`s third-best offensive rating in clutch situations this season (defined as score within five points in the final five minutes or in overtime). And their plus-47 net rating in the clutch during their 2024 championship run led all teams.

Because the Celtics are largely healthy – apart from center Kristaps Porzingis dealing with an ongoing illness – and effectively controlled the first three quarters of both games with a combined plus-21 differential in that span, they find themselves in arguably the best possible position for a team facing a 0-2 deficit at home. Surprisingly, Boston still holds the best odds of winning the East according to ESPN BET.

Nevertheless, the defending champions head to New York lacking momentum and with minimal room for further error.