Cooper Flagg, widely considered the most promising American basketball prospect since LeBron James, was always destined for intense scrutiny, irrespective of which team drafted him. His unexpected arrival in Dallas, following a surprising lottery win for the Mavericks after a turbulent season, amplifies the excitement surrounding him. This unique situation positions Flagg as a rare No. 1 overall pick capable of immediately contributing to a competitive team as a rookie. As Mavs General Manager Nico Harrison stated in July, the team is “in win-now mode,” and Flagg not only supports this goal but also represents the franchise`s future. This article delves into predictions from a panel of basketball experts regarding the Mavericks` performance with Flagg, his path to becoming an All-Star, and the likelihood of him achieving MVP honors and NBA championships.
Flagg and the Mavericks` 2025-26 Season Outlook
A key question arises: when was the last time a No. 1 overall pick played in the playoffs during their rookie season? The answer points to a tie between Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons, who achieved this with the 2017-18 Philadelphia 76ers. This rare feat typically requires unique circumstances. Flagg`s situation with the Mavericks fits this description: a franchise that recently traded an MVP contender, stumbled into the lottery, and defied 1.8% odds to secure the top pick.
Flagg is expected to start immediately, but unlike many top picks, he won`t be solely responsible for carrying the team, being surrounded by seasoned veterans, notably Anthony Davis, a former No. 1 pick and 10-time All-Star acquired in the Luka Doncic trade. The Mavericks` playoff success will largely hinge on Kyrie Irving`s return from his torn left ACL and his ability to regain All-Star form, which is crucial for the team`s offense. – Tim MacMahon
- Outside the postseason (No. 11-15): 3.8%
- In the play-in (7-10): 73.1%
- In the playoffs (5-6): 23.1%
- Home court in the playoffs (4 or higher): 0%
Playoff Series Wins for Flagg, Davis, and Irving in Dallas
Our panel`s predictions indicate that Flagg and the Mavericks` current core, including Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving, are likely to win two or fewer playoff series together over Flagg`s career. Conversely, roughly 15% of experts forecast at least four playoff series victories. This conservative outlook is largely influenced by Kyrie Irving`s ongoing recovery from a torn ACL sustained in March, combined with the fact that both he and Anthony Davis are now 33 and 32 years old, respectively, suggesting they are nearing the end of their physical primes.
While the Mavericks aim to win now, Irving will need time to fully recover, and Flagg, despite his immense talent, is still a rookie, facing the typical adjustments of a first NBA season. The sooner this core can achieve a series victory and maintain good health together on the court, the better their chances of exceeding these estimations. – Chris Herring
- 0: 7.7%
- 1: 30.8%
- 2: 26.9%
- 3: 19.2%
- 4: 3.8%
- 5: 7.7%
- 6 or more: 3.8%
Cooper Flagg`s First All-Star Appearance
According to our panel`s forecasts, Cooper Flagg is highly unlikely to be an All-Star in his rookie season. Blake Griffin is the only rookie All-Star in the past two decades, benefiting from a `redshirt` year due to injury. The changing All-Star game formats, potentially shifting to a USA vs. World structure, could also intensify competition for American players. However, second-year All-Stars are more common, with eight such players in the last eight years, including Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic. A significant number of star players achieve All-Star status by their third year, and our panel is confident Flagg will reach this level at the very latest. – Zach Kram
- 2025-26: 3.8%
- 2026-27: 30.8%
- 2027-28: 57.7%
- 2028-29: 7.7%
How Many MVP Awards Will Flagg Win?
Let`s first address the low probability of Flagg breaking the current seven-year streak of international players winning the NBA MVP award; American stars like Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, Jayson Tatum, and Jalen Brunson are currently better positioned for such an achievement. This doesn`t mean Flagg won`t win an MVP eventually.
Sources at the NBA Summer League noted minor areas in Flagg`s game that will require refinement in his initial years to reach his projected elite level. Beyond that, factors beyond his control—such as overall team success, media narratives, and the performance of his NBA peers—will influence MVP voting. With his background as the most promising American No. 1 pick since LeBron James and his comprehensive all-around game, Flagg will certainly garner constant attention from MVP voters.
His two-way capabilities and appealing style of play make him a strong candidate for multiple MVP awards over a long career. However, various external elements complicate this outlook. It`s worth remembering that even former Mavericks icon Luka Doncic, expected by many to win multiple MVPs, is still awaiting his first. – Michael C. Wright
- 0: 34.6%
- 1: 46.2%
- 2: 15.4%
- 3: 0%
- 4 or more: 3.8%
How Many NBA Titles Will Flagg Win?
Winning an NBA championship is incredibly challenging, even for a No. 1 overall pick. Cooper Flagg is the 41st top pick in the draft lottery era, and only 10 of the first 40 (25%) have won titles. While this percentage might increase as younger No. 1 picks mature (Andrew Wiggins, drafted first in 2014, was the last to win a title), historical data suggests the odds are stacked against Flagg winning a championship. Only Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Shaquille O`Neal, and David Robinson are No. 1 picks from this era with multiple titles.
However, several factors work in Flagg`s favor, distinguishing him from the average top pick. His pre-draft projection is superior to most prospects, which correlates with better postseason outcomes: seven of the 15 No. 1 picks in the lottery era with multiple All-NBA selections (47%) have won championships, with potential for more. Furthermore, the Mavericks possess significantly more talent than typical rebuilding teams that draft first. Most No. 1 picks require assistance from other No. 1 picks to win championships; for instance, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, and Dwight Howard all won alongside LeBron James, while David Robinson and Glenn Robinson won with Tim Duncan. This highlights a crucial championship-worthy context for Flagg`s burgeoning career: he will soon be sharing the court with Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving, two former No. 1 picks who have already achieved NBA rings. – Zach Kram
- 0: 7.7%
- 1: 76.9%
- 2: 7.7%
- 3: 7.7%
- 4 or more: 0%
How Many Teams Will Flagg Play For?
Dirk Nowitzki set a precedent for Mavericks stars staying with the franchise for their entire careers, spending an NBA-record 21 seasons in Dallas with a single team. The Mavericks are highly incentivized to retain Flagg long-term, especially given fan dissatisfaction following the trade of Luka Doncic, who was seen as Nowitzki`s natural successor.
However, predicting a player will remain with one team for their entire career in the modern NBA is largely a gamble. Among the top 50 scorers who debuted in the 21st century, only four—Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, and Nikola Jokic—have played exclusively for one team so far, and some of them could still move. Recent history overwhelmingly suggests that Flagg will likely play for more than one team during his career. – Zach Kram
- 1 (Dallas): 3.8%
- 2: 53.8%
- 3: 34.6%
- 4 or more: 7.7%
Flagg`s Ranking in the 2025 NBA Season
It is uncommon for a rookie to even enter the Top 100 player rankings, but Cooper Flagg is capable of making a broad impact on games from the outset, warranting his inclusion. The key question is how optimistic our ESPN panel will ultimately be about his initial ranking. Personally, I tend to be conservative when estimating rookie-season impact. While projecting a prospect`s career peak is one aspect of the draft process, the initial learning curve is a complex variable, and every player adapts differently.
Flagg, however, is distinct; he has consistently performed at a high level despite being younger than his peers and demonstrated readiness for top competition during his time at Duke. Although Dallas is unlikely to burden him with significant playmaking duties immediately, his defensive instincts, passing ability, and tenacity will be invaluable as he adjusts to a team aiming for competitiveness. Without overthinking, I would place Flagg in the 76-100 range. Our panel appears more optimistic at this stage. The mere fact that we are even discussing his potential ranking as a rookie underscores his exceptional quality and promising future. – Jeremy Woo
- Top 25: 0%
- 26-50: 15.4%
- 51-75: 53.8%
- 76-100: 30.8%