Duke freshman Cooper Flagg has been ranked as the top prospect in the 2025 NBA draft class for over a year.
Despite starting the season as the expected No. 1 pick, he has strengthened his position, especially in ACC games, and since turning 18 in December. Duke challenged Flagg to lead their young team against strong ranked opponents early in the season.
In 20 ACC regular-season games, Flagg averaged 21.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.4 assists. He was named ACC player of the year, rookie of the year, and an All-American. He has shown his skills as a passer, decision-maker, and shooter. Flagg is one of only four Division I freshmen in the last 25 seasons to average 20 points per game with 50% field goal shooting and 40% 3-point shooting in conference play.
Flagg injured his ankle in the ACC tournament, causing him to miss games. However, he expects to be healthy for the NCAA tournament, where Duke is a No. 1 seed and a favorite to reach the Final Four.
According to 10 NBA general managers, executives, and scouts, the gap between Flagg and other prospects in the 2025 draft class has grown in recent months. Discussions among executives now focus on his potential as a rookie and how he compares to previous No. 1 picks.
To understand what makes Flagg a top prospect, his areas for improvement, and expectations for the NCAA tournament, we spoke with 10 NBA executives who shared their candid opinions anonymously. They also discussed the possibility of Flagg returning to Duke for his sophomore year after he mentioned it following a win against North Carolina.
Regardless of his future plans, Flagg has lived up to the high expectations since arriving at Duke.
One Western Conference executive stated that Flagg is as ready for the NBA as any No. 1 pick in the last decade, if not more so.
Flagg`s Strengths and Comparison to Other Top Picks
NBA executives agree that Flagg`s approach to the game, his intense competitiveness, is unique and highly valuable for his future team.
An Eastern Conference executive noted that Flagg`s greatest asset is his ability to contribute to winning. All feedback from coaches, teammates, and trainers emphasizes this point. This quality is rare for an 18-year-old, especially considering the immediate impact he could have on a team needing improvement.
Describing Flagg as a fierce competitor, the same executive added that his energy and unselfishness set a standard for winning.
While Flagg has shown offensive growth, scouts highlight his defense as a key strength. He is expected to defend multiple positions effectively, create turnovers, and protect the rim due to his intensity and timing, which scouts attribute to his consistent effort.
A Western Conference scout mentioned that Flagg is skilled at cutting off angles and recovering quickly on defense. He has excellent instincts around the basket and moves well on the perimeter.
Early in the season, scouts considered Flagg among the best prospects in recent NBA drafts, second only to Victor Wembanyama, the No. 1 pick in 2023, who is seen as an exceptional prospect.
A second Western Conference scout stated that while team fit is a factor, Flagg is comparable to any top prospect after Wembanyama.
Zion Williamson, another Duke player and the No. 1 pick in 2019, had similar hype. While Williamson`s style was different due to his unique physical attributes, Flagg`s performance has placed him in the same conversation regarding expectations at the NBA level.
Flagg and Previous No. 1 Draft Picks
Freshman statistics for Cooper Flagg and the past four No. 1 picks who played college basketball: Zion Williamson, Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, and Paolo Banchero. Stats are adjusted per 40 minutes to standardize comparisons. Advanced stats like NET Rating and Box Plus-Minus reflect defensive impact.
Flagg`s raw stats are not as high as Williamson`s historic freshman season. However, Flagg`s advanced stats, including a high net rating and box plus-minus, highlight his significant impact, especially defensively. His assist-to-turnover ratio is also better than Williamson and the other top picks, indicating his playmaking ability.
Performance and potential are different, but Flagg`s college dominance, supported by both stats and observations, strengthens his case as a top prospect, especially when compared to NBA stars.
A Western Conference general manager mentioned that the best comparison for Flagg is a prime Kawhi Leonard, noting similarities in playing style, two-way ability, passing, and defensive versatility across positions.
While acknowledging differences from a young Kawhi Leonard, the GM emphasized Flagg`s confidence, work ethic, physicality, basketball IQ, and physical tools as traits that could lead to MVP-level and championship-caliber play, similar to Leonard.
When Leonard was drafted and traded to the Spurs, he was seen as a future defensive specialist. The GM pointed out that Flagg, while not having Leonard`s hand size or wingspan, is already a better shooter, passer, and overall player as a freshman.
Flagg`s Weaknesses
A primary concern among executives is Flagg`s performance in critical late-game situations.
An executive from a Western Conference playoff team questioned Flagg`s shot-creation ability in crunch time and whether he can be a primary scorer in those moments. Early in the season, he was seen as more effective in the mid-post, relying on power moves and pull-up jumpers that sometimes appeared predictable.
An Eastern Conference GM noted that while Flagg has few weaknesses overall, he has had turnovers in crucial moments in close games. However, they also acknowledged his versatility, passing ability, and potential to thrive with better NBA spacing. The main area for improvement is securing wins in tight game situations.
While there are minor concerns about Flagg`s ball-handling, finishing, and court awareness, executives generally believe he will continue to develop these skills.
The Western Conference executive who praised Flagg`s feel for the game noted that while he isn`t yet an elite ball-handler, he has improved significantly, particularly as a pull-up shooter, which compensates for some handling limitations. Continued improvement in this area is expected, but it is no longer considered a major weakness.
Flagg`s Impact on Duke`s Championship Chances
Flagg`s performance since the start of the season has increased confidence among evaluators about his NBA potential. Scouts have been impressed with how he has handled pressure and led Duke to a successful season, improving teammates like freshmen Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach.
The Eastern Conference GM admitted initial skepticism about Duke being a top national team, but Flagg`s impact has elevated them to title contenders. They acknowledged the ACC`s relative weakness but were surprised by Flagg`s ability to elevate Duke and his teammates at such a young age.
Players with Flagg`s level of hype often struggle to meet expectations, but he has delivered both individually and in team success. His maturity and unselfishness have solidified his reputation.
While Flagg has proven much at the college level, scouts are eager to see how he performs in the NCAA tournament`s high-pressure environment. A deep tournament run would further validate his season and provide challenging matchups.
An Eastern Conference scout is interested in seeing how Flagg handles increased defensive attention as Duke advances in the tournament, especially against elite defensive teams like Houston or Florida.
Flagg`s Return to Duke: Possible?
Despite no indications that a recent minor injury will affect his decision, the possibility of Flagg returning for his sophomore year remains. In a preseason interview, Flagg expressed excitement about playing for Duke.
When asked about returning, Flagg stated he is focused on the present, but also mentioned wanting to come back next year, and Duke fans have chanted for “one more year.”
A Western Conference executive believes Flagg`s family will not pressure him either way.
The executive expressed surprise if Flagg stayed, suggesting he might want to remain a college student for longer, considering he should still be in high school due to reclassifying early.
Historically, some top prospects have returned to school, though usually projected slightly lower than the No. 1 pick. Examples include Marcus Smart, Joakim Noah, and Al Horford, who declined early entry to the NBA draft.
After Duke`s season, Flagg has until the NBA draft`s early-entry deadline in late April to decide his future. An unexpected early exit in the tournament could influence his decision.
Executives speculate that Flagg`s NIL earnings might be a factor, showing how much college basketball has changed financially.
However, analysts project that returning to Duke could cost Flagg significantly in potential NBA salary long-term, possibly tens of millions of dollars, due to delaying his eligibility for top-tier contracts. This financial risk, combined with injury risks, makes a second college season a potentially risky decision.
An Eastern Conference scout stated they cannot recall a No. 1 pick ever returning to college.