In an alternate reality, prior to the advent of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rights in college basketball, potential NBA draft lottery pick Egor Demin might have remained in Spain to continue playing for Real Madrid in the EuroLeague before declaring for the draft. Instead, he made the significant move to the United States, settling in Provo, Utah, over 5,000 miles from his native Moscow, Russia.
Convincing his friends and family that relocating to play for former NBA coach Kevin Young at BYU was the right move for his professional aspirations was challenging, especially since he had never visited the campus. Demin shared, “That was pretty wild for people to hear that I’ve committed to BYU without visiting it. My first time when I was there, it was pretty much when I moved over there.”
However, Young, who previously served as an assistant coach for the Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns, offered Demin a compelling promise: if the 6-foot-9 guard joined the Cougars, he would develop within a system designed to mirror the NBA, providing preparation for the next level better than any alternative environment. (A NIL package exceeding $1 million also played a significant role).
By the end of the season, which saw BYU make its first Sweet 16 appearance in over a decade, Young had delivered on his promise.
“It’s everything,” Young commented on how BYU simulates professional standards. “It’s style of play. It’s how we work out. It’s who works them out. It’s what they eat, who tells them what to eat. It’s all those things that are giving him a head start, not just, ‘Hey, our head coach was in the NBA.’ It’s an all-encompassing type of program.”
The strategy employed by BYU and other programs to structure their operations after NBA teams, coupled with lucrative NIL opportunities, has facilitated a notable shift in the NBA development pathway.
From 2015 to 2022, college players typically constituted an average of 12 out of the top 14 lottery selections. In contrast, the past two drafts combined saw only 17 college players drafted in the lottery. For instance, in 2023, where Victor Wembanyama was the first pick, five of the top seven players came from international leagues, Overtime Elite, or the now-discontinued G League Ignite. Last year, four of the top six picks originated from one of these alternative development routes.
This year, however, projections indicate that 12 college basketball players will be chosen in the lottery, potentially tying the second-highest number since 2015. After a period where college basketball seemed less dominant in NBA development, it appears to be reasserting itself as the premier option.
Demin, projected as the No. 13 pick, exemplifies this trend. His intrinsic qualities, including a 6-foot-10¼ wingspan, likely positioned him for a first-round pick regardless of his path. However, BYU`s Sweet 16 run allowed NBA executives and scouts to witness Demin`s leadership within a high-level program on a major platform.
“[College basketball is] a better adjustment to American basketball since the final goal is to be an NBA player for me,” Demin stated. “So [I knew] this transition would probably help me a lot. Obviously, we’ll never know how it would be if I’d stayed in Europe or let’s say, went back to Russia or whatever it is. But at the moment, I think it was a better, a more clear path.”
He added, “I would better adjust to American basketball, the physicality, how quick the game is, how fast people are and all that.”
College basketball is once again seen as the leading path and the most attractive choice for aspiring NBA players.
“I would say being a young kid, you still want to have fun in college a little bit,” commented Dylan Mingo, an uncommitted five-star prospect in the 2026 class aiming for the 2027 NBA draft. “But really, [the appeal of college basketball is] just having the ability to be in the gym 24/7, going to class and just staying locked in.”
As college basketball regains its prominence in the draft hierarchy, it presents a compelling pool of talent comprising one-and-done freshmen, experienced veterans, and international players – a diverse mix less common recently. Players like Duke’s Cooper Flagg (one-and-done), Colorado State’s Nique Clifford (fifth-year senior), and BYU’s Demin (international freshman) are all expected to be selected in the first round.
In a midwestern city of 89,000, one college basketball program consistently sends diverse NBA prospects to the draft.
Illinois head coach Brad Underwood has successfully developed various types of prospects from Champaign for the NBA draft in recent years. Freshmen Kasparas Jakucionis from Lithuania and Will Riley are projected first-round picks, following transfer Terrence Shannon Jr. who was selected 27th after an All-American season for the Fighting Illini. In 2021, former Illinois standout Ayo Dosunmu was a second-round pick and later signed a $21 million contract with the Chicago Bulls.
These four players shared a key characteristic.
“They’re professionals,” Underwood told ESPN. “They know how to work. They’re very much mature. They didn’t get wrapped up in anything else. I think the other thing that was extremely obvious was that they played to win. They’re extremely, extremely competitive. I mean, all of those guys have a different level of competitive juice. Not for one second did those guys play for anything other than the ability to win.”
For Underwood, NIL opportunities have aided his program in identifying and developing NBA-level talent. While NIL is more complex for international athletes, programs have found ways to compensate them better than they might earn in Europe. This was a significant factor behind the NBA`s decision to disband its G League Ignite program after the 2023-24 season, as more prospects opted for college. Overtime Elite has similarly shifted its focus towards high school players for similar reasons.
“Now these kids can go to college and get paid – and most of these kids would prefer to go to college and play in March Madness and do these things, if all things are equal,” noted one NBA agent.
However, another crucial element is involved. “You can build culture in college,” Underwood stated. Experiencing a program`s culture makes NBA teams more confident in drafting college players and is a reason for the level`s growing advantage over other developmental paths.
“[Demin] was able to adapt to a different style of play while still being surrounded by people who respected his background and embraced his journey,” said Nikola Filipovich, Demin`s agent. “I think that experience has hardened him and prepared him to thrive in any environment, and that’s exactly what he’ll face in the NBA.”
He added, “BYU didn’t just teach him how to play in the U.S., but I think it also taught him how to live within the U.S.”
College basketball`s resurgence as the top developmental pipeline also aligns with a change in the NBA landscape: professional teams increasingly prioritize more polished talent as financial stakes rise and the pressure to win intensifies.
Joe Mazulla and Steve Kerr are the only NBA head coaches who have won a title since 2016 and remain with the same team. In this environment, college programs with established track records offer prospects a stable path and provide NBA teams with a reliable source of talent, reducing the risk of selecting the wrong player. This has opened doors for experienced, mature upperclassmen who were often overlooked during the peak of the one-and-done era.
Long before this trend, Tennessee coach Rick Barnes guided multiple players to the NBA draft, including Kevin Durant during his tenure at Texas. For exceptionally gifted players, the process is straightforward, Barnes remarked.
“Kevin Durant could have gone anywhere and been the No. 1 pick,” Barnes asserted. “He should’ve been the No. 1 pick.”
For others, the draft process is more complex. When NBA teams consult Barnes about his players – such as 2024 lottery pick Dalton Knecht – they express confidence in the future of college-developed prospects because they understand these players have been challenged to consider the fine points that can make a significant difference in the NBA.
“We’re still trying to teach them how to carry themselves,” Barnes explained. “We talk about during the timeout, when you’re not in the game, where do you stand? There are [NBA] people up there in that scout box watching you right now. Are you engaged in the timeout? Are you wandering around? Are you looking up? Making eyes at your girlfriend? What are you doing?”
A scout from the Western Conference added that the appeal of college players is “they’ve been coached right,” stating, “It’s about discipline. It’s about being able to play with others first.”
In April, Darrion Williams` phone was off, despite top programs trying to reach him. After a narrow loss to Florida in the Elite Eight, he withdrew from the NBA draft, entered the transfer portal, and traveled to Europe with some Texas Tech teammates to decompress after the season.
“Some people might’ve called and I didn’t answer and they stopped calling,” he recalled.
Williams, a 6-foot-6 standout and All-Big 12 first-team honoree last season, surprised many by choosing NC State over prominent contenders like Kansas. However, he felt that Will Wade`s approach mirrored a professional team`s structure, and he believed NC State`s new coach could better prepare him for the NBA than other programs.
On a hot day in Raleigh recently, Williams and his teammates lifted weights before a group practice, reflecting how NBA teams operate, Wade noted.
Andrew Slater, the program’s general manager and chief strategist, who previously worked as a consultant and evaluation scout for the Oklahoma City Thunder, is tasked with shaping the program into a professional operation. During the evaluation process, NBA teams indicated to Williams that he could be drafted anywhere from late in the first round to early in the second this year. They also advised him that he needed to improve his defense and shooting consistency to succeed at the next level. Williams mentioned selecting NC State partly due to Slater`s NBA experience, stating he was impressed when Slater provided data on the statistical benchmarks Williams needed to achieve this season to secure a first-round spot.
“I felt like if I used one more year and really honed in on everything and got with a coach like [Wade] and [strength coach Greg Goldin] in the weight room and burn on the court, I think I can solidify myself as a first-rounder and that’s what I’m trying to do this year,” Williams explained.
A decade ago, college veterans like Williams were largely overlooked during the peak of the one-and-done trend. The preference for youth persists; the 12 freshmen projected in ESPN’s top 14 this year would set a record for the most selected in the lottery era. However, the league’s new collective bargaining agreement (CBA), which imposes severe financial penalties on teams exceeding salary limits and includes an exemption to sign second-round talent, has created a larger market and more paths to the NBA for players who need more development time.
“Teams are going to start saying, ‘Well maybe we don’t need three stars,’” an Eastern Conference scout commented on the current NBA`s financial pressures. “Or they’ll have three superstars and a bunch of minimum-salary players. That’s why in college, now, they will take a senior. Five years ago, you would bring a senior to the table and they would say, ‘Well, he’s already 22.’”
It`s noteworthy that the majority of this year’s top prospects are not coming from college basketball’s traditional powerhouses. Programs like Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and UCLA might not have a first-round pick for the first time since 2004. Today’s top prospects are selecting programs based on desired roles, systems, and resources. They seek opportunities to win, stand out, and train with teams that can prepare them for the NBA. Many projected top picks in this draft played for colleges with coaches or staff members who have NBA experience.
At Illinois, Jakucionis and Riley worked with assistant Zach Hamer, who was with the Los Angeles Lakers before joining Underwood`s staff. Another projected first-round pick, Asa Newell, benefited from working with Darryl Hardin, Georgia’s director of player development, who has trained NBA stars like Pascal Siakam. And potential top-seven pick Jeremiah Fears improved through weight-room sessions with Ty Terrell, Oklahoma’s director of strength and conditioning, who held similar roles with the Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks.
While college basketball may gain a monopoly on American talent and an advantage over European teams for international prospects with NBA aspirations, the edge will belong to programs that emulate NBA operations. There is a belief that the next generation of prospects won`t just hope for college suitors to have staff with professional experience – it will become a requirement.
“I do think the player development can improve,” one NBA agent stated. “I just think with the resources [college basketball programs] have and the money they have, I think the player development could improve a little bit. I think teams should be hiring guys with NBA experience.”
Immediately after being hired, Young structured his BYU team to resemble an NBA franchise. He hired his brother as the general manager, brought in multiple assistants with NBA or G League coaching experience, and established an analytics staff.
In his first year with the Cougars, Young might not have had the brand recognition of blue-blood programs, but he offered an explosive offensive system that would allow Demin to be a leader and showcase his skills. Young, who will coach projected 2026 No. 1 pick A.J. Dybantsa next season, commented, “I think it’s really hard to find a high-major program that’s going to put the ball in a 19-year-old international player’s hands and play them 30 minutes a night with the ball in his hands. And so I think he was very drawn to that and he seized the opportunity.”
After a recent NBA workout, Demin finished around midnight. Exhausted, he reflected on his journey to this point, which included a midseason injury and the cultural and competitive adjustments to American basketball, culminating in leading his team to the Sweet 16. That run confirmed that Young, BYU, and choosing college basketball were the correct decisions for him, Demin said.
“[Young] is obviously one of the biggest reasons why I chose BYU,” Demin stated. “I was choosing BYU with the idea of who can prepare me for the NBA better than an NBA coach? And that makes a lot of sense to everybody. His ability to really find the right way to use players and to find me in the right actions, right positions, and right spots on the floor benefitted me extremely. And he taught me a lot of things that I hadn’t known before going there. And it’s not really about some exact skills or whatever, but just the overall understanding. He just brought me this NBA experience before I even got to the NBA.”