The second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs has delivered intense action, including overtime battles and dramatic fourth-quarter rallies.
Surprisingly, no higher-seeded team won its Game 1 in the conference semifinals, though the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves have since recovered.
However, the pressure remains high, compounded by key injuries to players like Stephen Curry and Karl-Anthony Towns significantly impacting their teams.
Following a second round full of unexpected turns and competitive series, we examine the major storylines, players facing pressure, and key factors as teams compete for a spot in the conference finals.
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics
Who faces the most pressure in this critical Game 4?
While attention often falls on Jayson Tatum and his shooting inconsistencies, or Jaylen Brown`s poor three-point percentage (5-of-23 in the series), the reality is the Celtics, despite their outside shooting woes, still have five players scoring in double figures and a history as a dominant force.
The New York Knicks, however, desperately need a standout performance from All-Star guard Jalen Brunson. His popularity in New York is well-deserved due to his legendary clutch play. But looking closer, the uncomfortable truth is that Boston`s defenders, particularly Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, are stifling Brunson. He`s shooting just 38% in the series, and Boston`s defense is limiting his free throw attempts, with Brunson taking only 18 total trips in the first three games – a 33% decrease from his first-round average. The Knicks are averaging a mere 95 points in regulation and shooting a dismal 42% collectively.
Furthermore, Karl-Anthony Towns is dealing with a left hand issue, and the Celtics are aggressively employing intentional fouls against Mitchell Robinson, who is struggling mightily at the free-throw line (7-of-23), effectively disrupting Knicks possessions.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
What needs to happen for this series to reach Game 7?
Nikola Jokic needs to regain his shooting form in the upcoming games. The three-time MVP is experiencing an unusual slump, shooting below 40% from the field in three straight games with at least 15 attempts – a first in his career (regular season or playoffs). Jokic, typically an incredibly efficient player, shot just 33.3% over that span and has recorded more turnovers than assists in the series so far. Oklahoma City`s top-ranked defense deserves significant credit for making Jokic`s offensive output difficult, and they will continue to apply pressure as the series progresses.
Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
What is Minnesota`s primary vulnerability, and how can Golden State exploit it without Stephen Curry?
As one of the few teams ranked top 10 in both offense and defense during the regular season, the Timberwolves exhibit few major weaknesses. Their impressive 23-6 record since March further highlights this. However, their ball security has sometimes been inconsistent for a team that should value every possession highly.
Despite holding a 2-1 series lead, Minnesota has turned the ball over more than Golden State in two of the three games, including a 21-15 margin in Game 3. Although Golden State forced more turnovers, they only converted them into 13 points in Game 3, compared to Minnesota`s 16 points off Warriors errors. If the Warriors can maintain defensive pressure on Minnesota`s ball handlers using players like Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, Gary Payton II, and Jonathan Kuminga, and become more effective in transition after forcing miscues, Golden State could potentially snatch another win to prolong the series, allowing Curry more time to recover from his left hamstring injury for a possible Game 6 appearance.
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
What is key for the Cavaliers to make a comeback in this series?
They need to recapture the offensive excellence shown during the regular season. Cleveland boasted the league`s top offensive rating. However, apart from Donovan Mitchell, the offense has struggled throughout the series, highlighted by the blowout loss in Game 4 that left Cleveland facing elimination.
In the first half of Sunday`s game, the Cavaliers managed only 39 points with just three assists against 14 turnovers. Compounding their issues, Mitchell, scoring at a rate unseen by a Cavaliers player in the playoffs since LeBron James, was sidelined in the second half due to an ankle injury.
Bonus!
What stands out as the biggest surprise of the second round?
This season marked a historic first: three teams achieved an average point differential of +9 or higher per game. These same teams – the Thunder, Cavaliers, and Celtics – then dominated the first round, collectively going 12-1 against less-fancied play-in teams. It appeared they were all headed for deep playoff runs, potentially meeting in the Conference Finals and NBA Finals.
Given this, it`s a significant surprise that this group is collectively facing difficulties in the second round, even accounting for injuries and shooting variance. These top regular-season teams currently hold a combined 4-7 record against Denver, Indiana, and New York, respectively, in their current series. While these teams might still ultimately advance as predicted, the unexpected competitiveness has resulted in more compelling games and a more closely contested round overall.
NBA Finals Predictions:
Despite both trailing 2-1 as of Sunday morning, my prediction remains the Celtics and the Thunder. Boston`s Game 3 showed their matchup advantages over the Knicks, especially when their three-point shooting is on form. With the top-seeded Cavaliers potentially not at full strength, Boston would likely be favored should they reach the Eastern Conference Finals.
In the Western Conference, Minnesota seems the most likely team to advance to the conference finals and has also played well against Oklahoma City this season. Nevertheless, the Thunder, holding home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, remain the favorites.