Everything happening in the world of sports carries extra significance when viewed from a betting angle. Key events, from injuries that change a season`s trajectory to historic record-setting moments, constantly and heavily influence the sports betting market.
Our betting buzz report compiles contributions from experts like David Purdum and Doug Greenberg, aiming to highlight the sports betting narratives that are currently dominating discussions.
May 7: Stephen Curry Injury Causes Five-Point Shift in Game 2 Line
David Purdum: The Golden State Warriors remained slight underdogs in their playoff series against the Minnesota Timberwolves as sportsbooks monitored the hamstring strain Stephen Curry suffered early in the Warriors` Game 1 win on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, the Warriors were listed at around +140 odds to win the series, while the Timberwolves were -165 favorites. A BetMGM spokesperson stated their trading team was adopting a `wait-and-see` approach to Curry`s injury, noting that Minnesota would become significant favorites in the series if he were ruled out.
Adrian Horton, trading director, commented that typically, a road team winning Game 1 would significantly alter series odds, but the uncertainty surrounding Curry`s injury kept the price stable, with the Timberwolves remaining favorites.
“If Curry was confirmed healthy, we`d generally expect something closer to even odds, or even the Warriors being favored to win the series,” Horton explained. “The fact that the Timberwolves are still favored indicates the uncertainty around his availability, especially considering Steve Kerr`s comments on Tuesday suggesting he`s unlikely to play on Thursday.”
Minnesota opened as a 10.5-point favorite for Thursday`s Game 2, an increase of four to five points from the Game 1 spread.
“Golden State closed as a 5.5-point underdog in Game 1, and after their win, a healthy roster would typically move the line closer for the next game,” Horton said. “Instead, the jump to Wolves -9.5 reflects the expectation that Curry might miss a game or two, and with early betting action, we`ve already seen it move to Wolves -10.5 by Wednesday morning.”
Fanatics Sportsbook reported refunding $500,000 in prop bets placed on Curry due to the injury, as part of the company`s `Fair Play` policy. One customer in Michigan won $224,773 from a $5,000 four-leg parlay that included Curry scoring 28 or more points. The other three legs of the parlay were winners, and the promotion voided the Curry leg, leading to the substantial payout.
May 6: Stars, Jets Prevail After Facing Extremely Long Live Odds
Doug Greenberg: Before last weekend, only three NHL teams had ever overcome a multi-goal deficit in the third period of a Stanley Cup Playoffs Game 7 to win. By the end of the postseason`s first round, both the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets had accomplished this rare feat, advancing to the second round despite facing immense in-game odds.
At their longest points, Dallas`s live odds to beat the Colorado Avalanche reached +2000, while Winnipeg was +2500 on the live line in the final minutes of regulation against the St. Louis Blues, according to betting data.
Going into the playoffs, Colorado was the slight favorite to win the Stanley Cup at +700 odds, just ahead of the defending champion Florida Panthers (+750). The Avalanche received significant support in the betting market, ending their playoff run with the highest handle percentages for championship futures at major sportsbooks and attracting the most tickets at one book. St. Louis was considered a much longer shot at 50-1 but represented a significant liability for some sportsbooks.
The reward for the Stars and Jets for surviving their first-round series is facing each other in the second round. For Dallas, this follows weeks of fluctuation: After acquiring Mikko Rantanen at the trade deadline, Dallas became co-favorites to win the Cup at +600, but their odds fell to +1100 after ending the regular season with a seven-game losing streak. The Stars are now once again the Cup favorites with +400 odds.
Winnipeg, conversely, is tied with the Washington Capitals for the longest odds remaining to win the championship (+900), an ironic situation given both teams finished the regular season with the best records in their respective conferences.
Bettors are similarly skeptical of Winnipeg`s chances, as Dallas has attracted the vast majority of bets and money to win the series at major sportsbooks (-175). Since the weekend, the Stars have received more betting action to win the Stanley Cup than any other team at two major sportsbooks.
Odds & Ends (NHL)
- Entering the second round, no team with home ice advantage was favored to win its series, which was the first time this has occurred in this round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in over 30 years, according to research. After a 5-4 win over Florida on Monday night, the home-team Toronto Maple Leafs moved to -125 favorites to win their series.
- Colorado`s Nathan MacKinnon was by far the most-backed player to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP at one sportsbook, drawing 10.6% of the wagers and 11.3% of the handle, making him the book`s largest liability.
- Although a Canadian team hasn`t won the Stanley Cup in 32 years, the country`s teams remain significant liabilities for sportsbooks: The Edmonton Oilers attracted a leading 21.2% of bets and 13.2% of handle at one book, while the Maple Leafs drew the most tickets (10.7%) and money (11.9%) among remaining teams at another.
May 5: Warriors` Record Playoff Streak as Favorites Poised to End
David Purdum: The Golden State Warriors have been favored in all 27 playoff series under head coach Steve Kerr. This marks the longest such streak for any team since the 1976 ABA/NBA merger, based on research. And this streak is expected to conclude this week.
The Warriors are +150 underdogs to win their Western Conference semifinal series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. This is the first time Golden State has not been favored in a series since the first round of the 2014 series against the LA Clippers.
The Timberwolves opened as -190 favorites on Sunday night. By Monday morning, the price had decreased slightly to -175. Minnesota is a 6.5-point favorite in Tuesday`s Game 1. The Timberwolves will be aiming to become the first team to eliminate both LeBron James and Stephen Curry in the same postseason, according to research.
Golden State won three out of four matchups against Minnesota this season. Jimmy Butler, who joined the Warriors midseason, did not participate in any of the games against the Timberwolves.
NBA Playoffs Odds & Ends
- Despite losing Game 1, the Cleveland Cavaliers remained the favorites in their semifinal series against the Indiana Pacers. Cleveland was a -210 favorite in the series on Monday, with the Pacers at +170.
- The Oklahoma City Thunder (-900) start their semifinal series against the Denver Nuggets (+500) with eight days of rest, while the Nuggets are playing just two days after winning their first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday. Since 2004, teams with a seven-plus-day rest advantage over their opponent have gone 8-0 straight-up and against the spread, winning by an average of 17.1 points. The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites in Monday`s Game 1.
April 30: Betting Surge on Browns Following NFL Draft
Purdum: The Cleveland Browns, following a draft that drew mixed reactions, are 10-1 underdogs to make the playoffs, representing the longest postseason odds available at one sportsbook. Their season-win total is set at 4.5, the lowest for any team. Nevertheless, some bettors are showing confidence in the Browns.
Sportsbooks noted increased interest in the Browns in the days after the draft. Cleveland was the fifth-most popular wager for season win totals at one sportsbook, with 93.4% of the money bet on `over 4.5 wins`. This week, at another major sportsbook, only five teams had attracted more bets to win the Super Bowl than the Browns, who have 200-1 odds. Cleveland has also received more bets to win the AFC North than any of their division rivals at that same sportsbook.
At 10-1, the Browns are the biggest preseason playoff long shots in the league for the first time since 2016, according to research. Their quarterback situation is uncertain, with 40-year-old Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett (on his third team in four years), and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders expected to compete for the starting role.
Sanders is listed at 15-1 odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, tied for the fifth-shortest odds in the market. He was 30-1 at one major sportsbook on Wednesday and was drawing support. As of Wednesday morning, approximately 46% of the money wagered on that sportsbook`s Offensive Rookie of the Year odds was on Sanders.
“We anticipate Shedeur Sanders will be among the most-bet-on players for Offensive Rookie of the Year due to his name recognition and favorable odds,” stated a trading manager. “The Browns quarterback is currently our biggest liability for this award.”
April 29: Pennsylvania Joins Online Poker Liquidity Compact
Purdum: The liquidity of online poker in America increased this week as Pennsylvania joined New Jersey, Michigan, Nevada, and Delaware in the Multi-State Internet Gaming Agreement. This allows players from these jurisdictions to compete against each other for shared online prize pools.
Caesars Entertainment announced on Monday that it was expanding its World Series of Poker platform into Pennsylvania, becoming the first U.S. operator to enable players from four states (Nevada, New Jersey, Michigan, Pennsylvania) to participate in shared prize pools. The expansion comes about a month before the busiest time for poker, culminating in the World Series of Poker Main Event in Las Vegas in July. The 2025 World Series Online Bracelet schedule begins May 31 and coincides with the 56th annual World Series of Poker in Las Vegas. A highlight of the online tournament will be a $250 buy-in event with a $1 million guaranteed prize pool starting on Day 1. Players will be permitted to play in the online WSOP events while simultaneously competing in the live WSOP tournament in Las Vegas. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro signed the compact agreement on April 23.
“The addition of the Pennsylvania player pool to WSOP Online arrives at the perfect time, and we are ready to give avid poker players in the Keystone State the chance to raise the stakes on their poker play,” said Danielle Barille, Vice President of Online Poker at Caesars Entertainment, in a press release. “This expansion improves the player experience by creating even larger prize pools that are available throughout the summer as part of our packed WSOP Online schedule. We are eager to see who wins our biggest online prize pools ever once the first hands are dealt this summer.”
April 24: From Caleb Williams to Cam Ward, Bettors Risk Big for Small Gains on No. 1 Picks
Purdum: Last April, a league bowling championship was on the line on a Thursday night in Richmond Heights, Missouri, but struggling bowler Zach Opengart was focused on something else. Less than 48 hours prior, the local college student had crossed the border into Illinois to place an outrageous bet he kept secret from his teammates: $11,311.52 on quarterback Caleb Williams to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft at -20,000 odds.
Opengart, then a senior at Washington University in St. Louis, scrolled through his phone for draft updates, only occasionally glancing up to watch for NFL commissioner Roger Goodell on TV. Opengart was nervous. It was a significant bet, a large portion of his bankroll. Probably too large, he now reflects. At the same time, he was confident, convinced the Chicago Bears would select Williams first overall. Finally, Goodell walked to the podium, welcomed everyone to the draft, and announced Williams as the No. 1 pick.
Opengart won $56 and change from his $11,311.52 wager. Despite his distracted performance, the bowling team went on to win the league title. The celebration was on, with Opengart buying the drinks.
Betting markets on events like the NFL draft are highly volatile and often feature extreme odds. They are challenging for oddsmakers to manage and force bettors to consider whether risking a large sum for a small potential win is worthwhile. Quarterback Cam Ward`s odds to be the No. 1 pick in Thursday`s draft were as short as -50,000 this week at some sportsbooks, meaning a bet of $50,000 would net a $100 profit. One sportsbook stated on Tuesday it had not received any “notable” wagers on Ward at the -50,000 odds it offered but confirmed such bets have occurred in previous drafts.
“Informational events like the NFL draft are really tricky when it comes to offering odds,” a head of football trading told reporters. “When it appears that a team like the [Tennessee] Titans is decided on drafting Cam Ward with the first pick, we will offer odds that closely represent the 99.99% probability of that happening.”
Opengart, now an account manager for a marketing firm in St. Louis, says this level of certainty is what attracts him to betting on heavy favorites, such as Williams last year.
“My reasoning was largely based on the certainty of the [Williams] bet compared to previous drafts,” Opengart explained in a recent interview. “I had heard the Bears GM laughing about the idea of taking anyone else. It seemed like a sure thing to me.”
However, he says he doesn`t plan to risk that much of his bankroll again, although he hasn`t stopped betting on big favorites — and not all have been winners. Opengart recalls losing a couple thousand dollars attempting to win around $100 by betting on Alabama to defeat Vanderbilt in a college football game last season. The Crimson Tide lost outright as 22.5-point favorites, around -2800 on the money line.
“It was brutal, but I always say with betting, especially my style, that you have to have the memory of a goldfish,” Opengart remarked. “The only thing that matters is the long-term return.
“I`m the kind of person who, if you offer me a free 50 bucks… I`ll take it every time, get myself a steak dinner, and be happy about it.”
Opengart mentioned his next intended “steak dinner bet” is on Cooper Flagg to be the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft this summer.