Analyzing the 76ers’ Unexpectedly Poor Season

What marks the lowest point of the Philadelphia 76ers` 2024-25 season?

Was it when Joel Embiid, already sidelined with an injury, faced suspension in November due to a locker room incident with a journalist? Or perhaps when Paul George, after declaring a podcast hiatus to concentrate on the playoffs, unfortunately had his season cut short by medical procedures just a week later? Or maybe it was the home defeat in March against the Washington Wizards, the Eastern Conference`s lowest-ranked team?

These are just a few of the lowlights in what has been a disastrous season for Philadelphia. Adding to their woes, Embiid is now set to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee next week, a month after being initially declared out for the season.

This was far from the anticipated April scenario for the 76ers, a team with seven consecutive playoff appearances and an offseason that seemed to reinforce their championship aspirations. Philadelphia secured extensions for Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, signed George—a major free agency acquisition—and bolstered their roster depth across positions during the summer. ESPN`s Kevin Pelton lauded their offseason moves, awarding `A` grades to both the 76ers and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

However, while the Thunder lead the Western Conference and are on track to potentially set a new NBA record for point differential in a season, the 76ers appear to be in a starkly different position. They seem to be prioritizing losses to potentially protect their top-six protected draft pick in the upcoming June draft from going to Oklahoma City.

Since February 4th, Philadelphia`s performance has been the worst in the NBA, with a record of 3 wins and 24 losses and a net rating of minus-10.9.

This period represents almost the only `success` the franchise has seen this season, albeit an ironic one. As this disappointing season nears its end, it`s crucial to assess the 76ers` profound letdown: the underlying reasons, its historical significance, and the path forward.

The Stage Set by Underperforming Stars

The narrative of Philadelphia`s lost season begins with Embiid, the 2022-23 NBA MVP, who participated in only 19 games this season. He has now missed 49% of the 76ers` games since his draft. Embiid, along with Derrick Rose, are the only MVPs in the last twenty years who did not rank in the top 10 for MVP voting within two years after receiving the award.

Essentially, most MVPs remain elite players for at least a couple of seasons following their award. However, this hasn`t been the case for Embiid, at least in terms of team performance this season.

Even with more games played, Embiid likely wouldn`t have been in MVP contention. Beyond a dip in stats and efficiency—his scoring decreased from 34.7 to 23.8 points per game, and his true shooting percentage fell from 64% to 58%—the 76ers were actually outscored when Embiid was on the court, a first in his career. He recorded a negative-5.5 net rating this season, a significant drop from his consistent plus-8 or better in the previous four seasons.

Historically, the 76ers` successful strategy was to dominate during Embiid`s playing time and stay competitive when he was off the court. This season, they couldn`t even achieve the former. Even when the anticipated `big three` of Embiid, George, and Maxey shared the floor, the 76ers only managed to score 109 points per 100 possessions, placing them in the 17th percentile across the league, according to Cleaning the Glass.

George, in his first year of a four-year maximum contract extending through his age 37 season, struggled with both health and consistent high-level play. After nine consecutive seasons of scoring at least 21 points per game, George`s average dropped to 16 this season.

Despite a reduced usage rate, which theoretically should allow for more selective play, his efficiency plummeted. Last season, George shot 6% better than the NBA average; this season, he was 6% less accurate. Advanced metrics suggest George has been less impactful than Tobias Harris, the player he replaced in Philadelphia, who is now on track to return to the playoffs with the Detroit Pistons.

While Maxey outperformed both of his All-NBA teammates in productivity, the previous year`s Most Improved Player also experienced a slight regression. With a heavier workload due to the frequent absences of Embiid and George, Maxey still scored significantly, but his efficiency suffered. His three-point accuracy decreased from 37% to 34%, and his turnovers increased by a third, from 1.7 to 2.4 per game. It appears Maxey might have reached his peak and is better suited as a secondary star rather than the primary option for a contending team.

Adding to these issues, injuries significantly derailed the 76ers` season from the outset. According to Spotrac, the 76ers have incurred the highest financial loss due to player injuries this season in terms of salary cap dollars. The New Orleans Pelicans, second on this list, have also notably underperformed relative to expectations.

These absences disrupted any chance for the 76ers to establish consistent rotations. They have utilized a record-breaking 52 different starting lineups this season.

Potentially the Biggest Disappointment This Century?

The 76ers` preseason win expectation was set at 50.5 wins, according to Basketball Reference`s over/under archive. It`s clear they will fall significantly short of this mark, likely not even reaching half that number.

Philadelphia is currently projected to be the third-most underachieving team in the NBA in the 21st century. If they continue to lose and end with 23 wins, they will miss their projected wins by 27.5; if they achieve their BPI forecast of 24 wins, the shortfall will be 26.5.

The record for underachievement belongs to the 2007-08 Miami Heat, who, after losing Dwyane Wade to injury and trading Shaquille O`Neal, declined sharply, finishing 15-67 in what became Pat Riley`s worst and final season as head coach.

Second on the list are the 2019-20 Golden State Warriors, another team significantly impacted by injuries. Following five consecutive NBA Finals appearances, these Warriors were a shadow of their former selves: Kevin Durant departed for Brooklyn, Klay Thompson missed the entire season, and Stephen Curry played only five games. Rookie Eric Paschall became the team`s leading scorer.

However, the aging Heat and injury-ridden Warriors were not expected to be as strong as these 76ers. When considering only teams with a preseason over/under of at least 50 wins, the 76ers move to the top, surpassing the 2021-22 Lakers (52.5 over/under, 33-49 actual record), who also missed the playoffs.

The 76ers were initially projected to secure a top-six record this season, based on preseason expectations, but are now struggling to even finish in the bottom six to protect their draft pick. Given the high preseason expectations and the ultimate failure to meet them, a strong argument can be made that the 76ers are the most disappointing team of the 21st century.

Looking Beyond the Disappointment

However, there might be a glimmer of hope amidst this bleak situation.

History suggests that teams experiencing such profound disappointment, like the 76ers, are not necessarily doomed to long-term failure. This aligns with sabermetrician Bill James` `Plexiglass Principle`: teams that significantly underperform expectations often rebound relatively quickly. After all, having stars capable of generating high expectations is preferable to having no stars at all.

The 2007-08 Heat, despite their collapse, returned to the Finals three years later, fueled by Wade and the high-profile free agent acquisitions of LeBron James and Chris Bosh. The 2019-20 Warriors, after their setback, won another championship just two years later. The 2021-22 Lakers, despite their struggles, reached the Western Conference finals the season after.

Remarkably, amidst the overall disastrous season, the 76ers have seen some developmental bright spots. Rookie guard Jared McCain, despite playing only 23 games due to a torn meniscus, leads all rookies in scoring with 15.3 points per game, especially notable given he was the 16th pick in last year`s draft. Quentin Grimes also showed significant improvement after a midseason trade to Philadelphia. Grimes` stats with the 76ers (21.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 39% 3-point shooting) are comparable to All-Star Jalen Williams` season performance (21.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 36% 3-point shooting), albeit without the same defensive impact.

Next season, with Maxey, McCain, and Grimes—assuming Grimes stays in Philadelphia through restricted free agency—the 76ers should possess a dynamic set of perimeter scorers for the entire game. George and Embiid could potentially return healthier after extended recovery periods. A top-five draft pick could also join the team, depending on the lottery outcome. And General Manager Daryl Morey is expected to leverage his front office skills to strengthen the roster further.

Ultimately, much may depend on Embiid`s health, especially considering his $55.2 million salary next season and the start of his max extension in 2026-27. However, the 76ers do have a foundation to build upon. While it might appear less solid than it did during the peak `Process` years, a historically disappointing season does not necessarily dictate long-term failure.