Analyzing the 2025 NBA Offseason Outlook for Eliminated Teams

Houston Rockets

• 2024-25 record: 52-30
• Draft picks in June: No. 9 (via PHX), No. 59 (via OKC)
• Free agents: Fred VanVleet (T), Steven Adams, Jeff Green, Aaron Holiday (T), Jae`Sean Tate, Jack McVeigh (R) and N`Faly Dante (R)

Roster Situation: A first-round exit as the second seed could be seen as a disappointment. However, considering where Houston stood after the James Harden trade in 2021, the Rockets significantly exceeded expectations this season. They`ve moved past seasons with 17, 20, and 22 wins to 41 wins a year ago and 52 this season.

The crucial step now is how the Rockets` front office and coaching staff assess the roster and address their playoff shortcomings. This approach should differ significantly from the regular season, where Houston adopted a conservative stance on roster adjustments.

“We definitely want this group to be as good as it can be this year and then we`ll evaluate things at the end of the year,” GM Rafael Stone commented in December. “But the hope is very much that this core group can lead us to where we want to go … from a transactional perspective we`re largely done.”

Under coach Ime Udoka, the Rockets have established a defensive identity (ranking fifth in efficiency this season) and are well-positioned for success over the next few seasons. They will add a top-10 pick from Phoenix to a roster that includes Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet, and last year`s lottery pick Reed Sheppard. Veteran center Steven Adams might leave in free agency.

The question is whether relying on continuity is sufficient to compete for a championship.

Offseason Finances: Fred VanVleet`s $44.9 million team option will significantly influence Houston`s flexibility this offseason. They have a five-day window after their final playoff game to activate the option. If they exercise VanVleet`s option and include the first-round pick from Phoenix, Houston would be $7.5 million over the luxury tax and near the first apron. The Rockets could decline the option and sign VanVleet to a lower long-term deal instead.

Houston has some financial room, with $12 million in non-guaranteed contracts (Aaron Holiday and Jock Landale) if VanVleet`s option is picked up. Houston has until June 29 to guarantee Landale`s $8 million contract and exercise Holiday`s $4.9 million team option. Key Front Office Focus: Houston`s first-round loss to Golden State should prompt the franchise to consider two key questions.

First, is there confidence that the current roster, with a top-10 draft pick added, can evolve beyond just being a strong regular-season team? Their leading regular-season scorer, Jalen Green, saw his points drop by six per game in the first round, shooting poorly at 37.2% from the field and 31.2% from three. (He managed only eight points and five turnovers in the Game 4 loss.)

Houston as a team was outscored 22-10 in clutch moments during the first three losses, despite having a 26-18 clutch record in the regular season, tied with Cleveland for the most clutch wins.

This leads to the second question: Do the Rockets need an All-NBA caliber player, perhaps Kevin Durant from the Suns or even Giannis Antetokounmpo from the Bucks, to reach the next level? If they decide to pursue a star, the Rockets possess three critical assets:

• Draft Capital: They hold five tradeable first-round picks over the next seven years, including the ninth pick in this year`s draft and unprotected firsts in 2027 (Phoenix) and 2029 (Phoenix or Dallas). Houston can also trade first-round picks in 2028, 2030, and 2032.
• Controllable Contracts: Five players (Smith Jr., Eason, Sheppard, Cam Whitmore, and Thompson) are on initial rookie contracts.
• Sizable Contracts: Sengun and Green signed rookie extensions last October. The “poison pill” restriction lifts on July 1, making them trade-eligible. Both are set to earn $33 million next season. Brooks has two years remaining on his contract ($22.1 million and $20.9 million).

Retaining Adams should also be a priority. Houston played best in the Golden State series when Adams was paired with Sengun. They were plus-30.7 points per 100 possessions when both were on the court in the postseason, and plus-30 in the regular season.

Potential Extension Candidates: For the second consecutive offseason, Houston has two players eligible for rookie extensions until October 21. (Last year it was Sengun and Green; this year it`s Smith Jr. and Eason.)

Smith Jr. started 194 games in his first three seasons but was moved to the bench late this season, replaced by Thompson. In 19 games off the bench, Smith Jr. shot 49.2% from the field and 37.2% from three, and the Rockets were plus-7.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, according to Cleaning the Glass. Eason posted career-highs this season in points (12.0), assists (1.5), steals (1.7), blocks (0.9), and field goal percentage (49%). The Rockets are nearly $80 million below the luxury tax next season, allowing them to be more proactive with both players regarding extensions.

Areas for Improvement: A center is needed if Adams departs in free agency. Developing Sheppard into a consistent rotational player is also a priority. Sheppard averaged 12.6 minutes this season and struggled with perimeter shooting consistency. In three G League games with the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, he averaged 30.7 points and 8.3 assists.

Future Draft Capital: Houston holds eight future first-round picks, with five tradeable over the next seven years. They owe Oklahoma City a top-four protected first in 2026 but have their own first in 2027 (with swap rights with Brooklyn). Phoenix will send Houston their unprotected 2027 first. The Rockets also have rights to the more favorable of their own, Dallas, and Phoenix firsts in 2029 and hold seven second-round picks available for trade.

LA Clippers

• 2024-25 record: 50-32
• Draft picks in June: No. 30 (via OKC) and No. 49 (via MIN)
• Free agents: James Harden (P), Patty Mills, Ben Simmons, Nicolas Batum (P), Amir Coffey, Trentyn Flowers (R)

Roster Situation: Almost a year ago, the Clippers allowed Paul George to leave in free agency. This move was criticized because there was no immediate return for George`s departure to Philadelphia, and the Clippers were seen as a team focused on winning now with James Harden and Kawhi Leonard. That perspective has shifted. Although a second consecutive first-round exit isn`t a moral victory, George`s exit gave the Clippers the option to build a deeper roster last offseason and continue that process this summer.

After spending $370 million in luxury tax over the previous four seasons, LA is now less expensive and more balanced on the court. The Clippers were third in defensive efficiency, and their 50 wins were the second most since 2016-17. Twelve players, including their starting five, are under contract (plus two incoming draft picks).

LA`s only unrestricted free agents are Mills, Simmons, and Coffey. Batum and Harden have player options. If Harden opts out, his next contract will determine the Clippers` spending capacity in free agency and their options in the trade market.

Offseason Finances: The Clippers have the financial flexibility to offer Harden a higher salary, utilize most of their non-tax midlevel exception, and potentially stay below the luxury tax. Assuming Harden exercises his $36.3 million player option and including the first-round pick, LA is $12 million below the tax threshold and $20 million below the first apron. Harden and Batum ($4.9 million) have until June 29 to opt into their contracts for next season.

The Clippers could create further flexibility with the non-guaranteed contracts of Drew Eubanks ($4.8 million) and Jordan Miller ($2.1 million). Besides the non-tax midlevel exception, they have the second-round exception, veteran minimum exceptions, and three trade exceptions ($6.5 million, $4.2 million, and $2.1 million).

Key Front Office Focus: Reaching a compromise on James Harden`s contract. A recurring theme among team executives after Harden signed a two-year, $70 million deal last July was: “Who exactly were the Clippers competing against?” His $35 million salary proved to be excellent value. Harden played the fifth-most minutes of any player this season and appeared in 79 games, his most in a regular season since 2016-17. As a result, he was the only player this season with 1,500 points, 500 assists, 100 steals, and 50 blocks. However, the regular-season positives were again overshadowed by inconsistency in the postseason. In the Game 4, Game 5, and Game 7 losses to Denver, Harden scored a combined total of 33 points.

Considering Harden is not eligible for an extension if he opts into his contract for next season, the probable outcome is him declining the $36.3 million player option and negotiating a new contract. With Leonard under contract for two more seasons and Harden turning 36 in August, the new deal should likely be no longer than two seasons (he can sign for a maximum of three due to the over-38 rule).

Potential Extension Candidates: At one point this season, Norman Powell appeared headed for his first All-Star selection. Before the All-Star break, Powell averaged 24.2 points on 49.6% shooting from the field and 42.8% from three. His production decreased significantly in the final two months, largely due to right knee and hamstring injuries in February and March. (Powell averaged 14.4 points in his last 15 games.)

Powell is entering the final year of his contract, and he has undoubtedly outperformed his current $19.2 million salary. Starting the day after the Finals, Powell is eligible to sign a four-year extension worth up to $128.5 million. However, given that Powell turns 32 this month and has faced durability issues—playing more than 60 games in only one of the past four seasons—the Clippers might hesitate to commit for more than two seasons.

Other extension candidates: Amir Coffey (through June 30)

Areas for Improvement: Bench depth and the development of former draft picks Cam Christie and Kobe Brown. The Clippers` reliable reserves are limited to Bogdan Bogdanovic and Derrick Jones Jr. if Batum doesn`t return.

Future Draft Capital: The Clippers do not control their first-round pick in the next four years. They will send an unprotected first to Oklahoma City in 2026. The Thunder have the right to swap first-rounders in 2027. The Clippers will send Philadelphia an unprotected first in 2028, and the 76ers have the right to swap firsts in 2029 (if it falls between 4-30). The Clippers are allowed to trade two future firsts (2030 and 2032) and can swap picks in 2030, 2031, or 2032. They have five second-round picks available for trade.

Detroit Pistons

• 2024-25 record: 44-38
• Draft picks in June: No. 37 (via Toronto)
• Free agents: Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schroder, Paul Reed and Daniss Jenkins (R)

Roster Situation: The Pistons were arguably the best success story in the NBA this season. After winning only 14 games last year, Detroit became the first team to triple its win total in a single season and just the sixth team in history to improve by at least 30 wins. The difficult rebuild that began in 2008 has, for now, reached a pause point. There are several reasons for this:

Cade Cunningham`s availability and the construction of the roster around him have helped the former No. 1 pick become a first-time All-Star and likely All-NBA candidate. After signing a rookie extension last July, Cunningham is under contract for the next five seasons.

Hiring coach J.B. Bickerstaff also gave Detroit a clear identity. This season, the Pistons ranked 10th in defensive efficiency, ninth in opponent field goal percentage, fifth in paint points allowed, and ninth in blocks. Last year, they were in the 20s for each category, including 25th in efficiency.

Led by GM Trajan Langdon, Detroit prioritized surrounding its young core with veteran shooters like Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr., Malik Beasley, and Dennis Schroder. The Pistons improved from last in 3-point shooting to a respectable 17th this season.

The focus now shifts to building on this positive momentum. While Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, and Ausar Thompson are all under contract next season, the Pistons must decide whether to retain their veterans. Schroder, Beasley, and Hardaway Jr. are all free agents. The positive news is that even with the first year of Cunningham`s max extension starting, Detroit is financially capable of re-signing these three or aggressively pursuing options in free agency and trades. No player other than Cunningham is set to earn more than $27 million next year, and Detroit has 22 draft picks available over the next seven years.

Offseason Finances: Cunningham likely being named to an All-NBA team impacts the Pistons` spending capacity. Because his salary next season will adjust from $38.6 million to $46.4 million, Detroit is projected to have $19 million in cap space entering the offseason. The Pistons could choose to operate over the cap if they bring back Hardaway and Schroder. In that scenario, Detroit would have access to the $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception and the $5.1 million biannual exception.

Key Front Office Focus: Like any team that overachieves, there are challenges in replicating this season`s success and advancing in the Eastern Conference. The primary challenge: the Pistons` front office must carefully balance retaining the team`s free agents with prioritizing future roster flexibility and financial freedom. Beasley finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting, played all 82 games, and ranked third in NBA history for 3-pointers made off the bench. Since he has non-Bird rights, the maximum starting salary Detroit can offer Beasley is $7.2 million. However, the Pistons could use cap space or their non-tax midlevel exception to sign him for a higher first-year salary.

Potential Extension Candidates: Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren were both lottery selections in 2022. Now, both players are eligible to extend their contracts until October 21. While neither is likely to receive a max contract early in free agency, both are deserving of new deals. Ivey was having a career-best season before a leg injury ended it in January. In the 30 games he played, Ivey averaged career highs in points (17.6), field goal percentage (46%), and 3-point percentage (40.9%) after shooting 33.6% from deep last season. Duren, meanwhile, played a career-high 78 games and had the league`s second-highest field goal percentage (69.2%), trailing only Jarrett Allen. Duren is one of only five players in NBA history to record 100 double-doubles before turning 22.

Other extension candidate: Tim Hardaway Jr. (through June 30).

Areas for Improvement: This depends on the outcome of free agency with Schroder, Hardaway, and Beasley. Of the three, Schroder might be most expendable with Ivey returning from injury. However, if Hardaway and Beasley leave, the Pistons will need more shooting around Cunningham. The development of last year`s lottery pick Ron Holland II, who shot 23.8% from three, is also important.

Future Draft Capital: For the first time since the 2020 offseason, Detroit controls its own first-round picks for the next seven years. Starting on draft night, the Pistons can trade up to four firsts and are allowed to swap firsts in every season. They have 15 second-rounders available for trade.

Los Angeles Lakers

• 2024-25 record: 50-32
• Draft picks in June: No. 55
• Free agents: LeBron James (P), Jaxson Hayes, Dorian Finney-Smith (P), Alex Len, Markieff Morris, Jordan Goodwin (T) and Christian Koloko (R)

Roster Situation: It`s undeniable that trading for Luka Doncic provided the Lakers with their next cornerstone to build a championship contender. Los Angeles achieved the eighth-best record since acquiring the 25-year-old, finishing third in the competitive Western Conference. However, as their lack of depth, size, and late-game execution demonstrated in the first round, the regular season is distinct from the playoffs. President of basketball operations Rob Pelinka acknowledged in February when trading for Doncic that the roster was not yet complete. “We`re going to build a roster that fits JJ Redick`s basketball philosophy,” Pelinka told reporters in February.

The Lakers face one of the most crucial offseasons in franchise history. LeBron James`s future is a primary focus for the second consecutive summer. James holds a $52.6 million player option and can again enter free agency. Doncic is not a free agent but becomes eligible to sign a four-year extension worth up to $229 million on August 2. In the unlikely event a contract isn`t agreed upon, Doncic would be a free agent in the summer of 2026. Additionally, Austin Reaves is also extension-eligible and could potentially become a free agent at the same time as Doncic.

While re-signing this trio is a top priority, monitoring how Pelinka enhances the rest of the roster is key. Based on the trade deadline activity, expect the Lakers to be aggressive. The Lakers attempted to acquire Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams at the deadline to give Doncic a lob threat and fill the void left by trading away Anthony Davis, but the trade was voided after a failed physical. While the Lakers lack the cap space to sign a free agent like Myles Turner, they do possess a 2031 first-round pick, five years of pick swaps, former first-round pick Dalton Knecht, and over $70 million in expiring contracts (Reaves, Dorian Finney-Smith, Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, and Gabe Vincent) that can be used in trades.

Offseason Finances: For the second straight offseason, James`s potential free agency affects who the Lakers can add to their roster. James has a $52.6 million player option for next season. He and Finney-Smith have until June 29 to opt in for next season. If James opts in or signs a new contract with a similar starting salary, the Lakers would be $1.3 million over the luxury tax. They are $6.7 million below the first apron, limiting them to the $5.7 million non-tax midlevel exception. Since the Lakers are well below the second apron, they have flexibility to aggregate contracts in trades.

Key Front Office Focus: How does a second consecutive first-round elimination influence James`s future decisions? The 40-year-old continues to perform at an incredibly high level. After his birthday on December 30, James averaged 25.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 7.7 assists in the regular season. If James declines his player option, he can sign a three-year contract with the Lakers worth up to $175.3 million. Since 2018, James has signed four contracts with the Lakers, only one of which was longer than two years.

Doncic, for his part, confirmed to ESPN`s Malika Andrews before the postseason that he intends to stay with the Lakers. While there`s confidence in Doncic extending, demonstrating what a roster post-LeBron might look like is a major priority. There are multiple possibilities for Doncic`s extension starting August 2, the first day he`s eligible. A four-year, $229 million maximum deal where the $51 million first-year salary for 2026-27 replaces his player option for that season. More likely is a three-year, $165 million extension including a player option in the third year. This shorter extension allows Doncic to potentially re-enter free agency sooner and recoup some of the $345 million he lost when traded from the Mavericks.

Potential Extension Candidates: Austin Reaves` four-year, $53.8 million contract signed in 2023 is considered one of the league`s best value deals. Reaves` $13.9 million salary next season is below the non-tax midlevel exception. Reaves finished the regular season with career highs in points (20.2), assists (5.8), and rebounds (4.5). After the Lakers acquired Doncic, Reaves shot 48% from the field and 40% from three in the regular season.

However, this team-friendly contract might lead Reaves to become an unrestricted free agent in the 2026 offseason. Due to his bargain salary, the maximum extension the Lakers can offer is four years, $89.2 million. The initial year`s salary of $19.9 million is 140% of the average player salary, the maximum allowed under the CBA.

If Reaves foregoes the extension and enters free agency, the Lakers and teams with cap space could sign him next offseason to a contract worth up to 25% of the salary cap. His starting salary in that scenario would be $42.5 million.

Other players eligible for extensions: Finney-Smith, Vincent, Kleber, and Hachimura.

Areas for Improvement: A starting center who is a lob threat, more frontcourt size, and reliable rotation players. The Lakers ranked last in playoff points in the paint and third worst in paint points allowed. The Timberwolves` bench outscored them by more than 16 points per game in their series.

Future Draft Capital: LA owes Utah a 2027 top-four protected first-round pick and Dallas an unprotected first in 2029. The Lakers are allowed to trade one first-round pick in either 2031 or 2032. Los Angeles has the right to swap firsts in five seasons (2026, 2028, 2030, 2031, and 2032) and has one second-round pick available for trade.

Orlando Magic

• 2024-25 record: 41-41
• Draft picks in June: No. 16 (own), No. 25 (via Denver), No. 46 (own), No. 57 (via Boston)
• Free agents: Gary Harris (T), Caleb Houstan (T), Cory Joseph (T), Moritz Wagner (T), Mac McClung (R), Trevelin Queen (R)

Roster Situation: The Magic attempted to balance drafting, developing, and keeping their own players with competing for a top-6 seed in the Eastern Conference during the 2024-25 season. “We`ve kind of doubled down on continuity,” Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman told reporters in February. “We believe in the way that we`re built.”

Since 2021, Orlando has primarily built through the draft. Twelve players on this year`s roster, which was eliminated in the first round for the second consecutive season, were drafted by the team. Only two players, Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris, were acquired via trade. This approach has resulted in Orlando reaching consecutive postseasons for only the second time since 2012.

Orlando`s offseason presents two main questions:

• Despite two straight first-round exits, can the roster, when healthy, truly compete with teams like Boston and Cleveland? Jalen Suggs and Moritz Wagner missed significant time with season-ending injuries. The team`s core scorers—Paolo Banchero, Suggs, Franz Wagner, and Moritz Wagner—all missed at least 20 games during the regular season. The core trio of Banchero, Suggs, and Franz Wagner played together in only six games, accounting for just 3% of Orlando`s possessions.
• How much will financial considerations impact the ability to keep this team together? The Magic have all 15 players under contract for next season, but for the first time since 2010-11, they are projected to be over the luxury tax and close to the second apron. On the positive side, Orlando will add two inexpensive first-round rookie contracts and have flexibility with $24 million in non-guaranteed salary.

Offseason Finances: Maintaining this roster will be costly. With the first years of Franz Wagner`s and Suggs` extensions beginning, the Magic are projected to exceed the luxury tax by $19 million, be $11 million over the first apron, and just $1 million short of the second apron. (These projections include the two first-round rookie contracts.) There are multiple ways for Orlando to fall below the tax. The Magic have $24 million in team options and have until June 29 to exercise the options for Moritz Wagner ($11 million), Harris ($7.5 million), Caleb Houstan ($3.5 million), and Cory Joseph ($2.1 million). Despite the financial constraints, Orlando can still use its second-round pick exception and exceed the apron.

Key Front Office Focus: Getting their finances in order and securing a new contract for Banchero. After averaging a career-high 25.9 points this season, the former No. 1 pick is entering the final year of his rookie contract and is expected to sign a five-year extension potentially worth $247 million. Coupled with Suggs` and Franz Wagner`s extensions, a new deal for Banchero would commit Orlando to over $600 million for these three players.

Next season`s finances will require Orlando to prioritize which players are most valuable to the roster and who is expendable. For instance, Moritz Wagner was their fourth-leading scorer and seemed like a Sixth Man of the Year candidate before a knee injury in December. Is exercising his $11 million team option and then looking to trade Jonathan Isaac or Goga Bitadze a more logical path? Isaac is owed $15 million next season and Bitadze $8.3 million. Alternatively, could the development of Anthony Black, a healthy Suggs, and the possibility of drafting a guard with one of their two first-round picks make Harris the more likely player to be moved? Harris has a $7.5 million team option and averaged only 1.4 points per game in the first round.

Potential Extension Candidates: Caleb Houstan has been somewhat overlooked during his three seasons in Orlando. Drafted in the second round in 2022, Houstan averaged 14 minutes per game in his first two seasons. However, his minutes increased to nearly 17 per game after the All-Star break this season. He finished the second half shooting a career-high 54.1% from the field and 50.7% from three.

Other extension candidates: Cole Anthony (as of Oct. 1)

Areas for Improvement: To reiterate, shooting is a critical need. The Magic were the first team since the 2016-17 Oklahoma City Thunder to rank last in 3-point percentage and still make the postseason.

Future Draft Capital: The Magic hold all their own first-round picks in future seasons. In 2026, they have the right to swap their own first-round pick for the more favorable pick between Phoenix and Washington (if it falls between 1-8). Orlando has 13 second-round picks available for trade.

Milwaukee Bucks

• 2024-25 record: 48-34
• Draft picks in June: No. 47 (via Detroit)
• Free agents: Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis (P), Pat Connaughton (P), Kevin Porter Jr. (P), Taurean Prince, Gary Trent Jr., Jericho Sims, Ryan Rollins (R), Stanley Umude (R)

Roster Situation: The Bucks are facing the harsh reality that the window for championship contention eventually closes. While Milwaukee deserves credit for making the postseason for nine straight years—the league`s second-longest active streak—the current version of the roster isn`t built to compete for a title. “[The cycle] closes when your core players get older and there is no foundation of young players waiting to replace them,” an Eastern Conference GM told ESPN during the regular season.

Milwaukee has failed to advance past the first round for a third consecutive season and won only 48 games this year, the fewest for the franchise in an 82-game season since 2017-18. It`s important to note that injuries to Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2023 and 2024, and Damian Lillard`s blood clot followed by a torn Achilles, significantly contributed to the recent postseason struggles. While Antetokounmpo is under contract through 2027-28 (with a player option in 2027), there are questions about the rest of the roster. Lillard turns 35 in July and is owed $113 million over the next two seasons after recovering from the torn Achilles. Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Taurean Prince, Kevin Porter Jr., and Gary Trent Jr. could all become free agents this summer (Portis and Porter have player options).

One positive is that Milwaukee is no longer in financial difficulty. The trade involving Kyle Kuzma and Khris Middleton gave the Bucks the financial freedom to add players through free agency or trade without being constrained by the second apron.

Offseason Finances: This financial flexibility might come at a substantial price. Without Lopez, the Bucks are $23 million below the luxury tax and $41 million below the second apron. If Milwaukee re-signs the 37-year-old Lopez, uses its $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception, and fills out the roster, the Bucks would enter the luxury tax for the sixth consecutive season. Since 2019-20, Milwaukee has incurred $220 million in tax penalties. Three players (Pat Connaughton, Portis, and Porter) have contract options. Connaughton has until June 24 to opt into his $9.4 million contract. Portis and Porter have until June 29 to opt in.

Key Front Office Focus: Credit to Jon Horst: Extending Antetokounmpo`s championship window remains the Milwaukee GM`s top priority. “It`s still the awesome responsibility to try to take this franchise and maximize the window that we have now as best we can and what we think gives us the best chance to win, and figure out how to continue winning going forward,” Horst stated after trading for Kuzma in February.

Since Horst was promoted in June 2017, Milwaukee has executed 25 trades. These trades have brought in players like Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, Nikola Mirotic, Jrue Holiday, PJ Tucker, Grayson Allen, Serge Ibaka, Jae Crowder, Lillard, Patrick Beverley, and most recently, Kuzma. Over the past eight years, these trades have cost Milwaukee seven first-round picks, three years of pick swaps, and 18 second-rounders. (The only players remaining from the 2021 championship team are Antetokounmpo and Lopez.) However, these trades have contributed to the Bucks trailing only Boston as the winningest regular-season team since 2016-17.

The offseason provides Milwaukee another chance to reshape its roster. The challenge is their inability to trade multiple first-round picks (currently, they can only move either their 2031 or 2032 pick) with a roster top-heavy in salary. Antetokounmpo, Lillard, and Kuzma are set to earn $130 million of the Bucks` $164 million payroll next season. Kuzma shot 30.7% from three this season, ranking 188th out of 197 qualified players in 3-point percentage. He is owed $21.8 million and $19.8 million over the next two seasons.

The futures of Lopez, Trent, and possibly Portis also need addressing. Lopez is one of five players this season with at least 100 made 3-pointers and 100 blocks and has started every game he`s played since signing with Milwaukee in 2018. Portis`s $13.4 million player option is less than the average player salary. Trent outperformed the one-year, $2.6 million contract he signed last offseason, averaging 18.3 points in the playoffs with a career-high 54.5% from three. The Bucks can keep Trent but would likely need to use most, if not all, of their $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception.

Potential Extension Candidates: Before tearing his left Achilles, Lillard was the key player to watch regarding a new extension. It is now unlikely that Milwaukee would add another $65.5 million to the two years remaining on his contract. An under-the-radar name to keep an eye on is AJ Green. The guard shot a career-high 42.7% from three during the regular season and is eligible to sign an extension worth up to four years and $89 million. Green will be an unrestricted free agent in 2026 if no extension is agreed upon.

Other extension candidates: Connaughton, Portis, Andre Jackson Jr. (as of July 7), Kuzma (as of July 7), Chris Livingston (as of July 8)

Areas for Improvement: A replacement for Lopez (and potentially Portis) if they are not re-signed, along with more depth and shooting. The Bucks found success late in the season when they surrounded Antetokounmpo with shooters like Trent, Porter, and Green. With these four players on the court, the Bucks had a remarkable plus-55.2 net rating.

Future Draft Capital: The Bucks have a combined two draft picks they can trade in future seasons – either a 2031 or 2032 first. Milwaukee can also swap firsts in either season. The Bucks have a 2032 second-rounder available for trade. Because Milwaukee dropped below the second apron at the trade deadline, they are permitted to buy a draft pick in June. However, with only $110,000 available, any such trade would likely need to occur on or after July 6.

Miami Heat

• 2024-25 record: 37-45
• Draft picks in June: No. 20 (via Golden State)
• Free agents: Duncan Robinson (ETO), Alec Burks, Davion Mitchell (R), Dru Smith (R), Isaiah Stevens (R), Josh Christopher (R) and Keshad Johnson (T)

Roster Situation: A turbulent season, marked by Jimmy Butler III`s indefinite suspension and a midseason trade involving him, culminated in the Heat being swept for only the second time since Erik Spoelstra became head coach in 2008. This marks Miami`s second consecutive first-round exit and their first season below .500 since 2018-19.

Miami finished 12-21 after the Butler trade, ranking in the bottom 10 for offensive efficiency during that period. They were 14-26 in clutch games (3-12 post-trade) and lost a league-high nine games after holding a lead of at least 15 points. The 55-point loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 4 was the worst playoff defeat in franchise history.

Despite these challenges, there are positives. Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and last year`s first-round pick Kel`el Ware have formed a foundational trio in the wake of the Butler deal. In the 951 possessions where these three players shared the court, Miami had a plus-6.8 net rating.

Crucially, the Heat have regained financial flexibility: three tradeable first-round picks and $60 million in expiring contracts (Robinson, Kyle Anderson, Haywood Highsmith, Kevin Love, Terry Rozier).

Offseason Finances: The Butler trade moved Miami below the costly second apron. Including the partially guaranteed contracts of Rozier, Robinson, and one first-round pick in June (from Golden State), the Heat are $11 million below the first apron and $23 million below the second. Robinson`s $19 million contract becomes fully guaranteed on July 8, but the team could gain an additional $10 million in flexibility by waiving him.

Miami can also use up to $5.6 million of the non-tax midlevel exception without triggering the first apron hard cap. They also have access to the veteran minimum exception and three trade exceptions ($7.3 million, $3.1 million, and $2.1 million). However, using any of these trade exceptions would hard cap them at either apron. The same applies if Miami uses the $5.1 million biannual exception.

Key Front Office Focus: Patience is key. As with any difficult separation, there`s a temptation to rush into the next phase. For the Heat, life after Butler and the fact that they don`t own their 2025 first-round pick shouldn`t lead Miami to take shortcuts in roster building. For example, it would be easy to take the $34 million owed to Rozier and Robinson next season and stretch it over three years. While this would provide $35 million in immediate cap relief, the Heat would still be over the cap and lose two valuable expiring contracts that could be used in a trade. Rozier`s performance and role saw a significant decline this season. He averaged 10.9 points and 26 minutes per game, his lowest marks since 2018-19. The Heat are far enough below the second apron to keep both players and potentially re-sign restricted free agent Davion Mitchell, who recorded 41 steals in his 30 games with the Heat this season. According to GeniusIQ, he held opposing ball handlers to just 0.828 points per direct isolation play, ranking 23rd among all players.

Patience will also guide how aggressive Miami should be in building around Adebayo, Herro, and Ware—whether to do so now or wait a year. The Heat will have the flexibility to pursue free agents in the 2026 offseason while actively engaging in trade discussions using those expiring contracts.

Potential Extension Candidates: Tyler Herro not only made his first All-Star appearance but consistently produced All-NBA caliber statistics. For the fourth straight season, Herro averaged at least 20 points, and in 2024-25, he had five games with 35 or more points, a career-best 47.2% field goal percentage, and 5.5 assists per game. The on-court stats are balanced by concerns about his ability to stay healthy, which has been an issue in the past. Herro played a career-high 77 games this season. Miami lost all five games he missed.

Starting October 1, Herro is eligible to add a three-year extension worth up to $149.7 million onto the two years ($31 million and $33 million) remaining on his current contract. If no agreement is reached by October 20, Herro would become eligible next offseason to sign a four-year extension worth up to $206.9 million. He is supermax eligible (five years, $380 million) if he earns an All-NBA selection in 2025-26.

Other extension candidates: Nikola Jovic, Andrew Wiggins (as of Oct. 1), Duncan Robinson and Terry Rozier

Areas for Improvement: Finding an offensive identity is crucial. The Heat ranked 28th in second-chance points, 23rd in points in the paint, and 24th in fast-break points. Ware also needs to develop his perimeter game further. He attempted 66% of his shots within 10 feet this season and shot only 24.3% from three after the All-Star break.

Future Draft Capital: The Heat sent their 2025 first-round pick to Oklahoma City and will send Charlotte a lottery-protected first in 2027 (unprotected in 2028 if not conveyed). Miami holds its own first-round picks in 2026, 2029, 2030, 2031, and 2032. Because teams cannot trade firsts in consecutive seasons, the Heat can trade their 2030, 2032, and the Warriors` pick received in June. They have two future second-round picks available for trade.

Memphis Grizzlies

• 2024-25 record: 48-34
• Draft picks in June: No. 56 (via HOU)
• Free agents: Santi Aldama (R), Luke Kennard, Lamar Stevens, Marvin Bagley III, Yuki Kawamura (R), Cam Spencer (R)

Roster Situation: A 21-game improvement in wins from last season should be viewed as progress. At the All-Star break, the Grizzlies were 36-18, second in the West, and well-positioned for home-court advantage in the first round. However, a 13-18 record to end the season followed by a first-round sweep is disappointing. The past two seasons serve as a reminder of how quickly things can shift in this league. Before the start of the 2023-24 season, Memphis ranked No. 4 (down from No. 1 the previous year) in ESPN`s NBA Future Power Rankings.

The priority in Memphis now shifts to finding a new head coach, whether by removing the interim tag for Tuomas Iisalo or conducting a broader search for the first time since 2019. After taking over from Taylor Jenkins, Iisalo went 4-7 in the regular season and play-in. Regarding the roster, questions remain despite the starting five being under contract for next season. Jaren Jackson Jr.`s future in Memphis might depend on whether he earns an All-NBA selection. If he misses out on that honor, the Grizzlies will need to clear cap space to renegotiate and extend his contract. If they don`t, Jackson could potentially become one of the top free agents available in the 2026 offseason. Beyond Jackson, the franchise […]

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